Astana Qazaqstan under review: Cavendish’s magic moment doesn't hide state of crisis at this once-top team

We can be very, very brief about Astana Qazaqstan’s performance in one-day races: it was very, very weak. No wins, not even on lower circuits or on other continents, where they usually secure some prizes. Dmitriy Gruzdev did manage two wins in national championships for Kazakhstan, one in the road race and another in the time trial.

As for high placements? In the Monuments, Astana only appeared in the top ten at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, where Alexey Lutsenko finished eighth in a sprint behind Tadej Pogacar. He also placed third in the Trofeo Matteotti. The usually dependable Lutsenko otherwise had a lackluster campaign in terms of one-day races. Meanwhile, Max Kanter achieved a fourth place in Castile and León, and Cees Bol did the same in the Scheldeprijs.

Late-season signing Alberto Bettiol couldn’t make an impact in Italy during September and October. Lorenzo Fortunato finished tenth in the Giro dell'Emilia. We have to admit that other riders who are usually good for occasional high placements, like Ide Schelling, didn’t deliver. Overall, Astana's one-day race performance was well below expectations.

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Let's face it. From the moment Cavendish crashed out in the 2023 Tour de France, it was clear the main goal for 2024 would be his pursuit of a 35th Tour stage victory. And so it was. He succeeded in the first week, propelling the 39-year-old Brit to the top of the all-time stage winners list in La Grande Boucle. That alone would make a large part of the year a success for the Asian team.

But aside from that? Not much to boast about. Astana recorded no top-ten finishes in grand tours, although Fortunato came close twice. Lutsenko did win the Giro d'Abruzzo, including a stage win. Other stage wins were claimed in Hainan (Ivan Smirnov), Langkawi (Gleb Syritsa), Kyushu (again Smirnov), Hungary (Cavendish), Turkey (Kanter) and Colombia (Harold Tejada and Cavendish). None were in the WorldTour, with the lightly contested Tour of Turkey as an exception. None of these wins are likely to stick in memory — aside from that historic win for 'the Manx Missile', of course.

Aside from this, we occasionally see a lone blue rider in races like Catalonia (Fortunato, tenth place), Guangxi (again Fortunato, eighth place) and the Renewi Tour (Bettiol, tenth place). These performances earned Astana points in the fight against relegation from the WorldTour, but it’s really just small pickings. The team will need to aim much higher in 2025 than the results achieved in 2024 to secure their place. Nevertheless, the shine of mission 35 will forever be a highlight of this cycling year.

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The big question our (former) editors debated was straightforward: can we give this team a passing grade based solely on Cavendish’s Tour stage win? The answer is, of course, no. Even that historic, fantastic win against a strong sprinter field in the Tour can’t (entirely) make up for the rest of the year. Astana is a team in crisis, and it’s time to start accumulating points in 2025. Our grade for Astana’s 2024 season is a disappointing 4.9.

How bleak is the outlook for next season? Surprisingly, not that bad. Astana has recruited well, including a few promising names. On good days, Dutch riders Mike Teunissen and Wout Poels could deliver results. Also joining are Darren van Bekkum, Diego Ulissi and Sergio Higuita — strong names with potential for success. Ulissi, especially, could secure points and wins in smaller races, similar to his time with former employer UAE Team Emirates.

Clément Champoussin can also be counted on. The Frenchman could be a major asset if he returns to his form of yesteryear. Astana is also adding young talents like Aaron Gate, Nicola Conci and Matteo Malucelli, all of whom still have room for growth. The team is undergoing a rejuvenation, blending young riders with experienced ones who aren’t yet past their prime. Is that the combination that will ensure a turnaround in the results? It just might.

This is offset by the departure of several veterans in particular: Michael Morkov, Cavendish and Rüdiger Selig are all quitting. Italians Samuele Battistella and Gianmarco Garofoli are also looking elsewhere. For a large number of riders, including many Kazakhs, the future is not yet known, although it is certain that they are leaving. The biggest homegrown name, Alexey Lutsenko, is leaving for Israel-Premier Tech, a bitter pill for Astana. Surely this will make the team more international.

New arrivals: Darren van Bekkum (Visma | Lease a Bike), Diego Ulissi (UAE Team Emirates), Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious), Mike Teunissen (Intermarché-Wanty), Aaron Gate (Burgos-BH), Sergio Higuita (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Clément Champoussin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Matteo Malucelli (JCL Team UKYO), Nicola Conci (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Florian Samuel Kajamini (Team MBH Bank Colpack Ballan), Alessandro Romele (Astana Qazaqstan Development Team)

Leaving (provisional): Mark Cavendish, Rüdiger Selig, Michael Morkov (all dropped out), Alexey Lutsenko (Israel-Premier Tech), Gianmarco Garofoli (Soudal Quick-Step), Samuele Battistella (EF Education-EasyPost), Santiago Umba, Anton Kuzmin, Dmitriy Gruzdev, Gleb Brussenskiy, Igor Chzhan, Vadim Pronskiy, Yevgeniy Gidich (all not yet known).

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For 2025, Astana seems to have a team on paper primarily that will not need classifications and big one-day victories, but rather for smaller tours, semi-classics and hijacking stages. In that context, for the multi-day races, look out for Wout Poels, Diego Ulissi, Sergio Higuita and Lorenzo Fortunato.

That Mike Teunissen joined the team was another nice boost for Astana. He and Alberto Bettiol could form a nice tandem in the spring. We are really looking forward to Darren van Bekkum. Can he already ride a classification here and there? He won't have much support from other climbers, so that question is really a matter of conjecture. For the mountains, we are also hoping for the two Haralds: López and Tejeda. Can they win another nice mountain stage?

Without Cavendish, a big goal falls away for Astana, which basically has no top sprinter left. It will be picking the right days and hoping for a stunt here and there in a bigger race. Furthermore, Astana is an uncertain stronghold. If things go well, the team can climb the ladder with new recruits. But the departure of a few strong riders, especially Lutsenko, could cost them a lot of points;

1. Davide Ballerini
2. Alberto Bettiol
3. Cees Bol
4. Clément Champoussin
5. Anthon Charmig
6. Nicola Conci
7. Yevgeniy Fedorov
8. Lorenzo Fortunato
9. Aaron Gate
10. Michele Gazzoli
11. Sergio Higuita
12. Florian Samuel Kajamini
13. Max Kanter
14. Harold Martín López
15. Matteo Malucelli
16. Daniil Marukhin
17. Henok Mulubrhan
18. Wout Poels
19. Alessandro Romele
20. Christian Scaroni
21. Ide Schelling
22. Gleb Syritsa
23. Harold Tejada
24. Mike Teunissen
25. Diego Ulissi
26. Darren van Bekkum
27. Simone Velasco
28. Nicolas Vinokourov