Did Tadej Pogacar ride his own 'Vingegaard time trial' in the Pyrenees? "Best performance of the 21st century"

In the fourteenth stage of the Tour de France, Tadej Pogacar inflicted more than 40 seconds of time loss on Jonas Vingegaard during the final climb. It was a great day for UAE-Team Emirates, although it didn't necessarily raise many eyebrows. UAE played it smart and according to Vingegaard, Pogacar was no better than him on the steep incline. However, Visma | Lease a Bike then suddenly claimed that the Dane was actually so strong that he couldn’t really have gone much faster... Analysts and number-crunchers pondered over the question: how could Pogacar ride so far ahead?

In cycling podcasts, both domestically and internationally, the initial reactions to the fourteenth stage weren't even full of surprise. There was mainly surprise over how UAE-Team Emirates controlled the race the entire day. "The theory was that this played into Vingegaard’s hands by keeping the pace so high," Dutch cycling journalist Thijs Zonneveld said on the podcast In het Wiel. "But looking at how explosive Pogacar was, he didn’t suffer much. They finally did well by using their strong riders, and riding in the lead all day suggests that there really was something wrong with Pogacar’s food and bidon strategy on Wednesday. He was clearly in better form now, so Wednesday must have been due to a sugar deficit."

"The difference is very small, so if you want to make a difference, the devil is in the details," Zonneveld continued. The fact that Visma | Lease a Bike is fielding Vingegaard without luxury-domestique Sepp Kuss is, according to Niki Terpstra, one of those important details. "The whole Visma team is not as super as the last two years. Back then, the team was so strong that they could completely wear out Pogacar, and then Vingegaard’s little diesel engine would take over. Now, it's not so dominant. Look at Adam Yates' attack: with a good Sepp Kuss there, they would have ridden so hard that Yates could never have been a springboard for Pogacar. These are all little things that play a part, although in de end the strongest man simply won."

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Tadej Pogacar

Can Visma | Lease a Bike manoeuvre another Granon scenario for Vingegaard?

"This was by the book," Laurens ten Dam of Live Slow Ride Fast said of UAE's tactical move to send Yates forward. "Pogacar was recovering in the wheel of Yates during those 28 seconds, and Vingegaard seemed to be catching up. Then he extended his lead and in that final kilometer, relatively speaking, he gained the most time. Pogacar also rode so hard to that finish line... He nearly flew out of the last turn before the finish. It was really strong. An unexpected boost, even for that team." Thomas Dekker concurs, curious about Visma | Lease a Bike's response. "Vingegaard needs to go all-in to force something, but they're missing Kuss and Roglic... Riders like that are not around anymore."

At Sporza, they also asked themselves: how can Vingegaard still win this Tour? "Maybe Vingegaard says: guys, after what happened in the Tour of the Basque Country, I’m happy with my second place," suggests Christophe Vandegoor. However, former racer Serge Pauwels still expects something. "The only chance for Vingegaard to win the Tour is by extending the effort. That way he can catch Pogacar at his weak point, which is when his tank runs out. They are matched in terms of engine. Vingegaard can’t beat Pogacar on that. If he waits until the last climb and Pogacar has a bad day, then he might gain back 20 to 40 seconds. But if they make the race so hard that Pogacar has to really dig deep and runs out of strength towards the end, then Vingegaard might have a chance. That's the only way to beat Pogacar, as Vingegaard did two years ago on the Col du Granon."

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Jonas Vingegaard

Is Tadej Pogacar simply better than ever?

At Lanterne Rouge, they don't even talk about a comeback for Vingegaard, but focus on Pogacar's performance. Apart from the tactics of UAE and the absence of Kuss, Merijn Zeeman's remark lingers. "Jonas can't go much faster." How is that? Because Pogacar was just incredibly fast. "It is possibly the UAE superstar’s greatest climbing performance of all time and maybe the best in the 21st century, considering the moderate altitude and stage difficulty. Pogacar did 6.85 watts per kilogram for 27 minutes and 50 seconds. Normalized for sea level, that is 7.16 watts per kilogram. Jonas Vingegaard despite showing one of the best performances lost 39 seconds with 6.67 watts per kilogram for 28 minutes and 29 seconds," Lanterne Rouge wrote.

Pogacar also shattered the Strava-KOM of Pla d'Adet. He was two minutes (!) faster than Lance Armstrong 23 years ago, ascending at 21.8 kilometers per hour on an average gradient of 8.4 percent. According to Lanterne Rouge, that's the reason for the differences, Pogacar simply had a day like Vingegaard had in his time trial in the third week of 2023. Besides Vingegaard, others also rode incredibly hard. "Simon Yates pushed 6.65 watts per kilogram normalized power, one of his better climbing performances. Yates finished 13th, losing 93 seconds to Pogacar."