Favorites for stage 8 Giro d'Italia 2024 | Aperitivo? Prati di Tivo, the uphill battle!

Each stage of the Giro d'Italia is rated by the organizers with stars, where - in terms of road stages - it has so far been limited to three stars during the opening weekend. The eighth stage from Spoleto to Prati di Tivo earns five stars, signaling that RCS expects this to provide a clearer picture of the climbers' capabilities.

The race kicks off in Spoleto, a historic city in Umbria. Right from the start, the route ascends with the uncategorized Forca di Cerro climb. This 7.3-kilometer climb at an average gradient of 4.1 percent serves as an excellent launching pad for a strong early breakaway. In the peloton, the strategy will be more observational: will the major teams be content with the breakaway, or will they send their own satellite riders to potentially assist later in the stage?

After a descent and several kilometers through the valley, the first categorized obstacle looms ahead: the Forca Capistrello, which at 16.4 kilometers long with an average gradient of 5.6 percent can certainly be considered a serious climb. It is also quite irregular, which gives an overall distorted view. For example, between kilometers one and four, it rises at 8.9 percent, while there is later a section of about six kilometers at 7.6 percent. This is ideal for strong climbers to make their move, and the battle for the mountain jersey will also begin here.

After the Forca Capistrello, the middle part of the stage stays on a sort of plateau in the Apennines. Here, it slopes up and down, and up and down (well you get the picture) for about eighty kilometers, without any steep climbs or descents. This could allow a team like UAE-Team Emirates, with powerhouses like Mikkel Bjerg and Domen Novak, to keep things under control if Pogacar has set his sights on the stage win.

We end the hilly phase with the Croce Abbio, a climb of 7.5 kilometers at a 4.9 percent gradient. The summit of this climb is forty kilometers from the finish, after which we begin a long 25-kilometer descent to the foot of the final climb of the day: the Prati di Tivo, a first-category mountain in this edition of the Giro d'Italia. At 14.7 kilometers long with an average gradient of 7.0 percent, these are significant numbers.

Taking a closer look at the col, we see that it is consistent in its gradient. The incline rarely deviates from seven percent, making it more of a gradual elimination race to the summit. Looking at recent finishes on this climb, it has tended to play out this way.

The Giro has only concluded at this climb once in 1975, but it has been featured more frequently in the Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2012, Vincenzo Nibali claimed victory here; Chris Froome followed suit a year later, and three years ago, Tadej Pogacar triumphed on the Prati di Tivo. Just a few weeks ago, Alexey Lutsenko impressively won a stage of the Giro d'Abruzzo that finished here. Both Pogacar and Lutsenko are also participating in this Giro.

Climbs
37.1 km: Forca Capistrello (16.4 km at 5.6%)
112.6 km: Croce Abbio (7.5 km at 4.9%)
152.0 km: Prati di Tivo (14.7 km at 7.0%)

Times
Start: 12:45 PM
Finish: around 5:14 PM

The riders certainly won't have any complaints about the weather on Saturday. At the start in Spoleto, it will be around 24 degrees Celsius, while at the finish at Prati di Tivo - 1450 meters altitude - it will still be 11 degrees Celsius with sunshine. The wind will be coming from the northeast, which means it will be at the riders' backs on the final climb.

With Tadej Pogacar of UAE-Team Emirates holding a lead of more than 2 minutes and 36 seconds over his closest rivals, Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe) and Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), the question remains: what now? If Pogacar wants to secure his lead in the pink jersey before the first rest day, Prati di Tivo presents the perfect opportunity. With the long undulating middle section, the race is theoretically quite controllable, although it's conceivable that he might want to relinquish the pink jersey for a while.

He is familiar with Prati di Tivo. The Slovenian won there already once back in 2021, knows the climb well, and clearly has the form to handle the challenge. Interestingly, during that race, Thomas was the one who tried to keep up with Pogacar but ended up finishing twelfth, nearly a minute behind. Towards the end, even Pogacar found it relatively tough.

Based on the time trial, there are also significant possibilities for others. Thomas did not have the best climb in the time trial, but Martínez did well, as did Ben O'Connor of Decathlon AG2R. The Australian is not currently on the podium, but remember Oropa: back then, he was the only one who even attempted to follow Pogacar, a move that ultimately backfired as he overexerted himself.

Many climbers lost positions on Friday, but now they're back on their terrain: Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Einer Rubio (Movistar), Mauri Vansevenant, Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step), Juan Pedro López (Lidl-Trek), Esteban Chaves (EF), Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa), and Michael Storer (Tudor) will all see this as an opportunity to catch up.

Whether they can start making gains in the hilly opening phase is another matter. Behind Pogacar, the gaps up to about 25th place aren't very large, so everyone will likely be keen to defend their spot in the standings. Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Alexey Lutsenko (Astana Qazaqstan Team, who won on this climb in the Giro d'Abruzzo), and Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUla) won’t easily give up their positions.

Then there are the losers from the opening weekend: Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers) and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) had a tough first few days but seem to be bouncing back. However, like the others, finding space to move up in this phase of the Giro d'Italia will be no easy task.

Riders who are at least ten minutes behind may find more freedom. For the likes of Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers), Nairo Quintana (Movistar), Giulio Pellizzari (VF Group-Bardiani), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R), Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike), Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe), Kevin Vermaerke (dsm-firmenich PostNL), and Henok Mulubrhan (Astana), this could be a great chance to aim for a stage win.

Top favorites:Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Giulio Pellizzari (VF Group-Bardiani CSF-Faizané)
Outsiders:Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Michael Storer (Tudor)
Long shots: Geraint Thomas, Thymen Arensman, Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers), Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Juanpe López (Lidl-Trek), Alexey Lutsenko, Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Einer Rubio (Movistar)