Favorites for Stage 9 of the 2024 Tour de France | Grand gravel bonanza could go any direction!

This will be quite a stage, to say the least. Starting in Troyes, the riders will embark on a 199-kilometer course featuring fourteen gravel sections, totaling 32 kilometers, and approximately 2000 meters of elevation gain. It's a stage unlike any we've seen before in the Tour de France, although the 2022 Tour de France Femmes also ventured into the Troyes area, which resulted in spectacular racing back then as well.

Alright, what’s on the menu? From Troyes, the riders head towards Laubressel, Géraudot, and Bligny, where the first gravel section appears after 44 kilometers. Not that the earlier phase will be calm: all teams, all leaders, all domestiques, and all ambitious riders will want to position themselves at the front to protect their chances. This will obviously create a very nervous peloton, reacting to the slightest incident.

The first section has received one star, but the second section ramps up to the maximum rating of three stars for this stage. This is the Baroville section, which is particularly interesting: once the gravel ends, the riders will begin the first climb of the day. The Côte de Bergères (1.7 kilometers at 5.2 percent) might prove to be an ideal spot for an early explosion of action.

After that, there’s about thirty kilometers of gravel-free riding, although the intermediate sprint in Fontette is still on the agenda. At Hauts-Forets, just over a hundred kilometers from the finish, we begin the third gravel section. They follow each other in quick succession, with the Celles-sur-Ource section potentially being the toughest of the day. This section lies between two climbs and is quite long at 3.4 kilometers.

After this section, we’ll see what the riders are made of, as the course continues to go up and down both in terms of elevation and terrain: gravel, no gravel, uphill, downhill, twists, and turns. As an attacker, you can quickly disappear from sight; as a dropped rider, you might lose sight of the others through the dust. For the spectators, this could be an epic stage, but we understand that riders and team leaders who have been preparing all year for this race might approach it with some trepidation.

After Magnant, there are still about 55 kilometers to the finish, of which approximately fifteen are on gravel. The wind will be slightly against the riders, which favors the groups that can still cooperate. Nevertheless, it will remain a matter of moving from section to section, much like in Paris-Roubaix.

One conclusion can already be drawn: those who reach the front in Troyes will be very pleased. The finale in the city center is quite technical, with a chicane one kilometer from the finish. But that will be minor compared to a day like this, where you have to show grit on the gravel.

Climbs
51.7 km: CÔTE DE BERGÈRES (1.7 km at 5.2%)
69.6 km: CÔTE DE BAROVILLE (2.8 km at 4.8%)
107.5 km:CÔTE DE VAL FRION (2.2 km at 5.0%)
121.2 km: CÔTE DE CHACENAY (3.0 km at 4.3%)

Times
Start: 1:35 p.m.
Finish: around 6 p.m.

The crucial question for a gravel stage is, of course: rain or no rain? We can answer this quite briefly, as there is virtually no chance of precipitation. There will be a light breeze from the southeast, and the temperature will be around 23 degrees Celsius.

Where do we even begin? This stage can go in any direction. For the stage victory, we initially think of riders who don’t have to look out for a general classification contender. The first name that comes to mind is our own world champion, Mathieu van der Poel. If there is one stage he would love to win, it's this one.

However, Van der Poel is certainly not the only rider at Alpecin-Deceuninck capable of winning this stage. The team also boasts fast men like Jasper Philipsen and Axel Laurance, former gravel world champion Gianni Vermeersch, and powerhouse Soren Kragh Andersen. Clearly, this is a team to watch.

We have more of this type. For instance, Lotto-Dstny is looking for a stage win with Maxim Van Gils and Arnaud De Lie. Lidl-Trek, after the withdrawal of Mads Pedersen, will also need to refocus, which they can do in this stage with European gravel champion Jasper Stuyven and Strade Bianche podium finisher Toms Skujins. Intermarché-Wanty can continue to ride the wave they're on with the green jersey of Biniam Girmay and his teammates Laurenz Rex, Mike Teunissen, and Hugo Page.

The Big Four will also dread this stage, though we wonder if Tadej Pogacar might secretly want to make a strong move here. The two-time winner of Strade Bianche feels at home on gravel, so it's up to Jonas Vingegaard's Visma | Lease a Bike team to keep a close eye on him. The chances of Wout van Aert and Christophe Laporte might also align with this strategy.

Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) will be torn before the stage. On one hand, they fear losing time, but on the other hand, they have the one-day race skills to make an impact themselves. Both riders have strong teams to support them.

Looking further at the teams that can go all-in, we see Groupama-FDJ (Stefan Küng, Romain Gregoire, and Valentin Madouas), Movistar (Oier Lazkano and Alex Aranburu), EF Education-EasyPost (Alberto Bettiol, Neilson Powless, and Ben Healy), Uno-X (Rasmus Tiller and Jonas Abrahamsen), and Arkéa - B&B Hotels (Kévin Vauquelin).

And then there are the teams looking to play both sides. Will gravel world champion Matej Mohoric get the freedom at Bahrain Victorious from Santiago Buitrago and Pello Bilbao? Should Tom Pidcock help Carlos Rodríguez get through the stage for INEOS Grenadiers? What about Michael Matthews, who has Simon Yates at Jayco AlUla and doesn't seem to be in top form?

Two years ago, Simon Clarke surprised everyone by winning the Paris-Roubaix stage, but can teams like TotalEnergies, Decathlon AG2R, Israel-Premier Tech, Cofidis, Astana, and dsm-firmenich PostNL pull off a surprise now? It would have to be through an early breakaway, but that seems difficult to establish with such a short run-up phase. Well, we'll know by 6:00 PM on Sunday evening!

Top favorites: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny)
Outsiders: Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates), Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek) and Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny)
Long shots: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost), Alex Aranburu (Movistar), Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), Romain Gregoire, Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Rasmus Tiller (Uno-X)