Favorites for the green jersey in the Vuelta a Espana 2023 | Points classification as the main prize or by-product?

On the honor roll of the points classification of the Vuelta, we encounter numerous general classification riders, among whom the good sprinters Alejandro Valverde and Primoz Roglic even appear multiple times. Froome, the overall winner in 2017, even managed to secure the jersey at the expense of sprinter Matteo Trentin by grabbing some crucial points in the final sprint in Madrid.

In 2021, the Vuelta a España aimed to emulate the Giro and the Tour by designing a points classification more accessible to sprinters. That year, Jakobsen clinched three stage victories and walked away with the green jersey, a feat Pedersen replicated in the previous season. Despite this, riders focused on the general classification remained close contenders in both instances. Therefore, without a dominant sprinter in the mix, the green jersey could once again be up for grabs among those vying for the overall win.

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2022 Mads Pedersen
2021 Fabio Jakobsen
2020 Primoz Roglic
2019 Primoz Roglic
2018 Alejandro Valverde
2017 Chris Froome
2016 Fabio Felline
2015 Alejandro Valverde
2014 John Degenkolb
2013 Alejandro Valverde

Since 2021, ASO has dramatically changed the points system, which is now almost identical to that of the Tour de France. Riders can earn points both at the finish line and during intermediate sprints for the points classification. Regarding intermediate sprints, only the first five riders can earn points in the Vuelta, whereas in the Tour, for example, the first ten can.

While the maximum number of points that can be earned in intermediate sprints is the same in each stage at 20, this is not the case for the finish line. The number of points at the finish depends on the difficulty of the stage. The Vuelta organization distinguishes between four types of stages: flat, hilly, mountain and time trial. The most points can be earned in flat stages, while the fewest points are available in mountain stages and time trials. The team time trial in Barcelona will not yield any points.

Points for flat stages: 50, 30, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 (stages 4, 7, 19 and 21)

Points for hilly stages: 30, 25, 22, 19, 17, 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 (stages 2, 5, 9, 12, 15 and 16)

Points for mountain stages and time trial: 20, 17, 15, 13, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 (stages 3, 6, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 17, 18 and 20)

Points for intermediate sprints: 20, 17, 15, 13 and 10

To compile this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten in answer to the question: 'Who is most likely to win the points classification in the Vuelta?' Each top ten ranking was assigned points according to the following scale: 12 points for the number one, 10 for the number two, and so on with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point(s). The total number of points received by each rider was then converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points. This percentage is indicated next to the respective riders, providing a clearer picture of the odds according to IDLProCycling.com. The focus here is specifically on the chances of winning, not on the most likely candidates to finish in the top ten.

Our list kicks off with Milan Menten, a 26-year-old Belgian who has undergone significant development this year with Lotto-Dstny. Menten joined last winter from Bingoal Pauwels Sauces WB and quickly secured a place in his new team with consistently good performances. He won Le Samyn at the end of February and subsequently secured several honorable finishes in a series of one-day races.

Menten has also shown in stage races that he can hold his own. The reasonably good climbing Belgian recorded some notable finishes in stage races such as those in Romandie, Catalonia and the Critérium du Dauphiné, which are never easy. Through the Tours of Romania and Poland, he is now preparing for his first Grand Tour. Menten has Jarrrad Driznes as his lead-out man. "Milan is our fast man in this team, and we hope to see him in the mix in the sprint stages of this Vuelta," says Sports Director Kurt Van de Wouwer.

Continuing from Menten, we move on to the number two from Le Samyn, Arkéa Samsic rider Hugo Hofstetter. The Frenchman is having a less successful year but hopes to turn things around in the Vuelta. Last season, he finished in the top ten five times in the Tour, but this year, his result in Le Samyn remains his best so far.

The man who consistently scores honorable places is, due to that quality, someone who always tends to rise to the top in points classifications, something his team Arkéa Samsic is counting on. "Hugo is our man for the flat sprints, but also for the finishes that are more selective. If some sprinters are eliminated, he can still be in the mix," said team director Sébastien Hinault.

A man who, like Hofstetter, should be considered capable of rising to the top when things become a bit more selective is Andrea Vendrame of AG2R Citroën Team. The Italian in French service is someone who always manages to finish some stages in the top ten, although in recent years he has increasingly stated that he would no longer participate in flat sprints, in favor of his chances in flat stages.

With the field of sprinters starting this Vuelta, the AG2R Citroën team is counting on Vendrame bouncing back in the Tour of Spain after his withdrawal from the Giro. "Andrea is someone we can use in many stages. He has the speed to get involved in sprints but is also among the best punchers in the peloton. In addition, he has prepared very carefully for this Vuelta," said team director Julien Jurdie. In the past, with good legs, he was even able to get great results in mountain stages, from an early breakaway.

In seventh place, we find Gerben Thijssen from Intermarché-Circus-Wanty. The Belgian is actually one of the few fast men who has been able to focus on the Vuelta since the beginning of the season, as the team of Aike Visbeek decided early on to send Arne Marit (Giro) and Biniam Girmay (Tour) to the other Grand Tours as sprinters.

The solidly built Belgian will, at the age of 25, start his third Tour of Spain, where he came very close to a stage win during his first participation in 2020. Last season, he went to Spain with some credentials, but an early fall derailed his plans. This year, he has managed to secure some one-day victories, although it must be honestly said that he faces some challenges in WorldTour races. However, if Thijssen can get up to speed, he is a very dangerous contender.

Moving on to the next Belgian, of a different kind: Remco Evenepoel finished as the overall winner of the Vuelta in 2022 and also came in fourth in the points classification. With this year's course, he could very well finish close again. In the battle for bonuses in a race like this, points are also allocated, which makes him and other general classification contenders viable candidates for the green jersey.

Of course, it's not the main goal for the world time trial champion, but we certainly shouldn't rule it out. Especially since Evenepoel has already proven this season in several stage races that his explosiveness after a challenging race has certainly not diminished.

From a Dutch perspective, Marijn van den Berg's participation in the upcoming Vuelta is very interesting. The young rider from EF Education-EasyPost is about to start his first Grand Tour but has proven with a series of podium finishes this year that he is ready to take the next step. And that could very well mean that he unexpectedly wins say two stages.

Van den Berg has good speed on flat terrain but is at his best when some altitude needs to be overcome. His team firmly believes in him, as he is being supported by Stefan Bissegger, Julius van den Berg, Sean Quinn, and Andrea Piccolo. "I'm a bit nervous myself, but I'm coming to the Vuelta for a stage win. The second and fourth stages should suit me well, as I'm often faster than the other sprinters when there's some fatigue in my legs."

UAE-Team Emirates is not only bringing Juan Ayuso and Joao Almeida to the Vuelta but is also including Juan Sebastián Molano. The Colombian sprinter won the final stage of the Tour of Spain in Madrid last year as a lead-out, which remains his greatest victory to date. His team rewarded him with a substantial contract extension through 2026.

This year, he was sidelined for a long time due to a collision in Belgium, but he managed to secure victories in the UAE Tour, GP Denain, and most recently the Tour of Burgos, racking up several prestigious wins. For this reason, despite the overall classification ambitions of UAE-Team Emirates, he will be supported by a strong sprint train consisting of the Oliveira brothers.

In third place, we find a man who has already won the Vuelta's points classification twice, but more importantly: he's won the overall classification three times. The red jersey is again the main goal for this season for Primoz Roglic, who, with his strong sprint, could just as easily be among the names competing for the points classification again.

In 2021, Jakobsen claimed three victories and finished second twice as a sprinter, yet Roglic managed to claim the second spot in the fight for the green jersey that season—ahead of Magnus Cort, who also won three stages that year. However, no matter what we come up with, the points classification will always be a secondary objective for the Slovenian and his team.

Bryan Coquard was a bit of a surprise for many on the Vuelta start list, but those who look deeper know that he has been focusing on this race for some time. The diminutive Frenchman finds a course that suits him well, and has already removed the Hamburg classic and the Tour Poitou-Charentes from his schedule. Additionally, his team sponsor Cofidis is also an important partner of the Vuelta.

Coquard has competed in the Vuelta once before but did not finish it then. However, the sprinter with a strong uphill punch has completed the Tour de France five times, and on each occasion, he has been among the top six in the final standings for the green jersey. This confirms that he is always in contention, making him one of the top favorites for the points classification of this Vuelta.

The title of top favorite for the points classification of this Vuelta goes to Kaden Groves of Alpecin-Deceuninck. The incredibly strong Australian had his breakthrough last season with a stage win in the Spanish tour, which he was able to continue in this year's Giro on behalf of his new team, Alpecin-Deceuninck. Afterward, Groves mainly retreated to altitude to optimally prepare for the Vuelta.

If Groves can reach and maintain the form he had in the spring and the Giro throughout the Vuelta, he is undoubtedly one of the top candidates for the green jersey. He possesses incredible speed on the flat, but is also a sprinter who can climb well.