Giro, Tour and then... Vuelta! On Saturday, the third and final grand tour of the year kicks off in Portugal. Over the course of three weeks of racing, we'll be looking for a successor to Visma | Lease a Bike's American, Sepp Kuss. Without Tadej Pogacar and/or Jonas Vingegaard at the start, there is no clear top favorite, but that makes it all the more interesting to scrutinize the main contenders.
Most recent winners of red jersey Vuelta a España
2023 Sepp Kuss
2022 Remco Evenepoel
2021 Primoz Roglic
2020 Primoz Roglic
2019 Primoz Roglic
2018 Simon Yates
2017 Chris Froome
2016 Nairo Quintana
2015 Fabio Aru
2014 Alberto Contador
Favorites general classification Vuelta a España 2024
This list has been compiled based on the opinions of (former) editorial staff members of IDLProCycling.com, who submitted their top ten contenders.
Isaac del Toro - UAE-Team Emirates
It has been five years since Tadej Pogacar rode his first grand tour at the Vuelta a España, but UAE-Team Emirates may already have a natural successor in their ranks. UAE-Team Emirates coach Giacomo Natori recently hinted in an interview that the immensely strong Mexican, Isaac del Toro, reminds him of the young Pogacar.
Del Toro, who has a contract until 2029 (!), will be starting his first grand tour in Lisbon. As the winner of the Tour de l'Avenir, he started with a stage win and third place in the Tour Down Under, which was followed by results in stage races like Tirreno-Adriatico and the Tour of the Basque Country.
A solid podium finish is, of course, not expected from Del Toro, but with such a talented rider, you simply don't know where his limit is. The Mexican will likely be given time to discover himself, as he currently excels in multiple disciplines, including his punch, time trial and climbing abilities.
Carlos Rodríguez - INEOS Grenadiers
Spain currently has four general classification riders capable of podium finishes in a grand tour. These include Enric Mas of Movistar, a rider who always performs well (and has to) in the Vuelta a España, Juan Ayuso (UAE-Team Emirates), who wil likely be watching this Vuelta from the sidelines, and last but not least: Carlos Rodríguez of INEOS Grenadiers.
The 23-year-old from Andalusia has been knocking on the Vuelta's door for several years now. In his first Vuelta in 2022, he finished in sixth place, making his name as a grand tour contender. He followed this up with top ten finishes in the Tour de France this year and last year, and now, for the first time, he seems poised to combine two grand tours in one year.
Time to reap the rewards, which INEOS Grenadiers desperately needs. The British multimillion-dollar team had a tough Tour de France and could use some success in the grand tours.
Mattias Skjelmose - Lidl-Trek
It is rare for a rider to state early in the season that the Vuelta is their main goal. Yet, Mattias Skjelmose of Lidl-Trek did just that. The talented Dane did not ride the Giro or Tour but made his presence known in the one-week stage races: fourth in Paris-Nice and third in the Tour of the Basque Country and the Tour of Switzerland. That's impressive.
Now, Skjelmose wants to take the next step and achieve a similar result in a three-week stage race. As a lightweight, he should fare well on the Spanish mountain roads, and he also has a good time trial engine.
In terms of team roles, Lidl-Trek might still play around with Tao Geoghegan Hart and Giulio Ciccone, who are also on the preliminary start list for the Vuelta a España.
Daniel Felipe Martínez - Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe
If there's one team surrounded by question marks for this Vuelta a España, it's Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe. On paper, the team has three potential podium candidates, but how realistic is that? Daniel Felipe Martínez has the least doubts surrounding him, although at the time of writing, it's still unclear whether the Colombian will ride the Vuelta.
With his second place in the Giro d'Italia – behind Pogacar – he proved that he can compete for the grand tour prizes with his new team. A welcome boost for the tough rider, who has consistently encountered a fair bit of misfortune in a grand tour.
Martínez's strengths lie in his resilience, punch and good time trial, while he can also be part of the team strategy that his team might employ.
Mikel Landa - Soudal Quick-Step
Mikel Landa's move to Soudal Quick-Step made for a particularly successful cycling transfer. The somewhat reserved Basque has peaked so far in the Tour of the Basque Country (second) and the Tour de France, where he also secured a fifth place as an important lieutenant to Remco Evenepoel. His third main goal is the Vuelta a España.
Until last year, Landa had a love-hate relationship with his home country's grand tour, but with his first top ten finish in seven participations, he has already set a strong benchmark for this season's edition. Given the peloton will pass through the Basque Country in the final week, he will be highly motivated to showcase himself.
Don't expect him to take control of the race, but with his Tour de France form, Landa could be a dangerous contender for the final podium.
Sepp Kuss - Visma | Lease a Bike
Sepp Kuss starts the Vuelta a España as the defending champion and will certainly not be given the freedom he had last year with an early breakaway. Back then, the American exceeded all expectations, ultimately surprising himself, his leaders Vingegaard and Roglic, and the entire cycling world in Madrid.
Afterward, the originally super-domestique said he wouldn't want to experience that stress again, but barely a year later, the situation has changed. After missing the Tour de France, Kuss heads to his beloved Vuelta as the team leader for Visma | Lease a Bike.
In the Tour of Burgos, an important preparatory race, he reeled in the overall victory, proving that his legs are in good shape, giving him and his fellow climber Cian Uijtdebroeks confidence as they line up in Lisbon.
Joao Almeida - UAE-Team Emirates
If there's one man who will be highly motivated at the start in Lisbon, it's Joao Almeida of UAE-Team Emirates. How often will he get the chance to begin a three-week stage race in his homeland, as the leader of the best team in the world, no less?
Not often, so we expect an Almeida who will ride with determination from the start. The Portuguese rider can draw on his time trialing skills and pacing ability at the beginning and end of the grand tour, while he tackles the Spanish mountains at his own pace in between.
He participated in the last two editions of the Vuelta as well. In 2022, he finished fourth, while last year he had to settle for a somewhat disappointing ninth place.
Adam Yates - UAE Team Emirates
We continue our list with possibly the top favorite for this Vuelta: Adam Yates of UAE-Team Emirates. The Brit served as Pogacar's super-domestique in the Tour de France, just like last year, but before that, he had already proven in the Tour of Switzerland that he has the ability to win races himself.
In the Alpine country, he shared the spoils neatly with his teammate Almeida, which can be seen as a litmus test for the upcoming Vuelta a España. There, Yates will have the chance to use his explosiveness on the climbs as a co-leader and, like his brother Simon in 2017, go after the overall victory in the Spanish race.
Yates last rode the Vuelta in 2021. Back then, in the INEOS Grenadiers jersey, he finished fourth.
Primoz Roglic - Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe
If Primoz Roglic makes it to the start of the Vuelta after his crash in the Tour de France, we will have a three-time winner at the start. However, we will have to wait until the time trial in Lisbon to get a precise indication of the Slovenian's form. Roglic is a master of saying things without really... Saying anything.
With the new sponsor on board, Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe will be keen to showcase themselves at the highest level. Ralph Denk and Rolf Aldag have been expressing big ambitions for months now, and saw Martínez perform in the Giro, but the less successful Tour will undoubtedly be a blemish on the team's reputation.
It's up to Roglic – and Vlasov and Martínez – to take their chances in the Vuelta, where he will not face his former teammate Vingegaard or fellow countryman Pogacar. On the other hand, the Vuelta's starting line is also a kind of finish line for him, after his injury.
Richard Carapaz - EF Education-EasyPost
Among the top contenders is certainly Richard Carapaz of EF Education-EasyPost, the winner of the polka dot jersey in the Tour de France. The Ecuadorian has been aiming for the absolute top with Jonathan Vaughters' team for two years, but twice he has had bad luck at crucial moments. Last year, he broke his kneecap in the Tour, and this year, he started with a disadvantage due to a heavy crash in Switzerland. In between, he also had his inflamed tonsils removed.
Long story short: Carapaz has not yet fully come into his own with the American team and will want to use this Vuelta to showcase himself in the general classification as well. The daring climber from Ecuador certainly has the climbing abilities for it, as he once again proved in the final week of the Tour.
Carapaz was close to winning the Vuelta in 2020. At that time, he came in 24 seconds behind Roglic, whom he gave a hard time in the last mountain stage.
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