Favorites mountain classification Giro d'Italia 2024 | Many lightweight climbers, only one well-known favorite for the blue jersey

An undeniable aspect of the grand tour: the mountain classification! The distinctive maglia azzurra once again emerges as the coveted, emblematic jersey. Over the course of three weeks in Italy, it will become evident who possesses the requisite skills for this classification. Will there be climbers who set their sights specifically on claiming the mountain jersey? Or might there be classification riders who alter their strategies as the race progresses and vie for contention? The editors of IDLProCycling.com have delved into this challenge to forecast rankings, potentially identifying numerous contenders!

Also coming soon on IDLProCycling.com:
- Preview of the Giro d'Italia
- Favorites for the general classification (pink jersey)
- Favorites for the points classification (purple jersey)
- Favorites for the young rider classification (white jersey)
- Betting pool tips for the Giro d'Italia

Latest winners of mountain classification Giro d'Italia

2023 - Thibaut Pinot
2022 - Koen Bouwman
2021 - Geoffrey Bouchard
2020 - Ruben Guerreiro
2019 - Giulio Ciccone
2018 - Chris Froome
2017 - Mikel Landa
2016 - Mikel Nieve
2015 - Giovanni Visconti
2014 - Julian Arredondo

Thibaut Pinot

Points scoring mountain classification Giro d'Italia 2024

Earning points for the mountain classification is contingent upon climbing categories, ranging from category four (least difficult) to category one (most difficult). The number of riders who can earn points for the mountain classification is determined by the climb's category. The more challenging the climb, the greater the points allocation and the more riders eligible for points. At the Cima Coppi, the highest passage of the Giro, the highest point total is awarded once. Additionally, double points are awarded if the summit of a climb also serves as the finish line for a stage. For a comprehensive overview:

Cima Coppi (Roof of the Giro):
50, 30, 20, 14, 10, 6, 4, 2 and 1 point(s)  

First category:
40, 18, 12, 9, 6, 4, 2 and 1 point(s)

Second category:
18, 8, 6, 4, 2 and 1 point(s)

Third category:
9, 4, 2 and 1 point(s)

Fourth category:
3, 2 and 1 point(s)  

Favorites mountain classification Giro d'Italia 2024

To compile this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were surveyed to provide their top ten picks in response to the question, "Who is most likely to win the points classification at the Giro d'Italia?" Each top ten selection was assigned points according to the following ranking: 12 points for first place, 10 for second place, and so forth, with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point for subsequent positions. The total points received by each rider were then converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points. This provides an indication of the likelihood of success according to IDLProCycling.com!

Michael Storer / Einer Rubio - Tudor Pro Cycling / Movistar: 14/72 points (19%)

At the top of the list, we have two lesser-known climbers who received an equal number of points from the editors: Michael Storer and Einer Rubio. Storer, now 27 years old, earned his place on this list primarily due to his impressive performance in the 2021 Vuelta, where he convincingly claimed the mountain jersey. In the subsequent years, the Australian predominantly rode in a supporting role with Groupama-FDJ. His move to Tudor presents an opportunity to ride more prominently under his own name. Nonetheless, we can expect to see Storer in breakaways during the mountain stages, and it wouldn't be surprising if he actively seeks to accumulate points!

The same holds true for Einer Rubio. The diminutive Colombian secured a stage victory in last year's Giro, marking his finest moment in cycling with a win at Crans Montana. Rubio has been on our radar for some time now. Due to his relative weakness in time trials, it's not immediately evident that the Movistar rider is targeting a classification. Thus, like Storer, we'll likely see Rubio launching attacks in the high mountains. With compatriot Nairo Quintana alongside him, it could turn into a pursuit of the blue jersey for the men in Spanish colors!

Filippo Zana / Simon Carr/ Mauri Vansevenant - Jayco-AlUla / EF Education EasyPost / Soudal Quick-Step: 15/72 points (21%)

Coincidentally, once again we encounter three individuals with the exact same score. These are three pure adventurers, who view the 2024 Giro as a playground for their exploits. Let's begin with Filippo Zana. The 2022 Italian champion demonstrates steady improvement in his climbing abilities each year. He capped off last year with a stage victory on Zoldo Alto. If Zana maintains good form throughout the Giro, it's quite possible that we'll see him at the forefront during the early mountain sprints, though this will also depend on the classification ambitions of Eddie Dunbar and Luke Plapp.

Next, we have Simon Carr. In his unique style, the British rider triumphed in a stage of the Tour of the Alps in late April, earning him an early lead in the mountain jersey classification. Partly due to this achievement, Carr emerges as a serious contender for the blue jersey. With no clear classification leader within the team, there's a good chance that Carr, as a climber, will seize opportunities in the mountains. Regardless, based on his current form, much can be anticipated from him.

Mauri Vansevenant has swiftly emerged as a dark horse for the maglia azzurra as well. The broad-shouldered Belgian climber rebounded in late spring with several notable performances. Vansevenant did not participate in a grand tour last year, so the question remains about the duration of his peak form. Nevertheless, our editors are imbuing him with a considerable amount of confidence as he heads to Italy. Expect Vansevenant to be in the mix at the forefront in the (mid) mountains!

Michael Woods / Lorenzo Fortunato - Israel-Premier Tech/ Astana Qazaqstan: 18/72 points (25%)

He didn't clinch a victory in 2024, and in fact, he was scarcely seen. Turning 38 in October, Michael Woods will have to contend with a slew of younger competitors. Nonetheless, he ranks high on the list. The Canadian has previously showcased his talents in the Tour and the Vuelta, tactfully securing stage wins. It's therefore not surprising that Woods is prominently featured in the editors' rankings. At Israel-Premier Tech, he'll enjoy the freedom to set his own objectives.

Similarly, Lorenzo Fortunato garners attention, primarily remembered for his memorable stage triumph on the Zoncolan in 2021. The 27-year-old Italian joined Astana this year, a team poised to tackle the Giro with a contingent of adventurers. Within this lineup, strategic planning will be crucial: Alexey Lutsenko and Christian Scaroni are also capable of picking off points on their good days. Nevertheless, the editors at IDLProCycling.com are convinced that Fortunato is the top pick for the blue jersey!

Florian Lipowitz - BORA-hansgrohe: 19/72 points (26%)

Undoubtedly, his third-place finish and impressive climbing display in the final stage of the Tour de Romandie have propelled Florian Lipowitz to a notable position on our list. The German climbing talent captured the attention of the general public just last week, and we can certainly anticipate noteworthy performances from him.

In a team where Dani Martinez is regarded as a confident GC rider but lacks full team support, opportunities are sure to arise for Lipowitz. Can he excel in the grand tour? Our editors are optimistic about his potential. There must be compelling reasons why this youngster, rather than Emanuel Buchmann, has been selected for La Corsa Rosa. We eagerly await to see his performance!

Tadej Pogacar - UAE Team Emirates: 57/72 points (79%)

It should come as no surprise: Tadej Pogacar is the favorite for the blue jersey. It's been a recurring trend in the last decade for a rider to claim both the leader's jersey and the mountain jersey. Pogacar could replicate this feat this year, as he has already accomplished it twice at the Tour. He's the premier climber, possesses the best sprint among climbers, and is currently in the form of his life. Thus, the outcome hinges primarily on Pogacar himself: how determined is he to return home with the most illustrious trophy cabinet? Will the Slovenian leave any opportunities untapped?

The answer to that question seems apparent, especially considering Pogacar's other goals for 2024: the Tour, the Games, and the World Cup. Furthermore, it's not certain that a potential grand tour contender will actively engage in the mountain sprints. The most likely scenario is that Pogacar swiftly asserts dominance in the race and then focuses on gearing up for the Tour. If there are numerous uphill finishes favoring classification contenders, there's a solid chance Pogi will seize the blue jersey, reminiscent of his performance in the Tour of Catalonia. However, if the major mountain stages become playgrounds for breakaway specialists, we're in for an enthralling battle for the maglia azzurra. According to our editors, Pogacar is poised to achieve the double...