Favorites polka dot jersey Tour de France 2023: Fierce competition awaits for Pogacar and Vingegaard

The polka dot jersey is one of those iconic cycling jerseys that even resonates with people who are not fans of the sport. The jersey, worn by the leader of the mountain classification in the Tour de France, is one that captures the imagination of spectators around the world. So, who are the top contenders with the best chances of claiming that coveted mountain jersey after 21 grueling days of racing? IDLProCycling.com has compiled a list of the top ten contenders for you. Let's dive in!

The yellow jersey is always won by a general classification rider, and the green jersey by a sprinter. For the polka dot jersey, it's a bit more complicated. The ranking is typically led by a good climbing rider (with good legs that can pull off a decent sprint), but whether that is a general classification rider or a baroudeur can vary. The past has shown that both scenarios frequently occur, although in the last three editions, for example, the white jersey with large red dots was claimed by the rider who also topped the overall classification. Last year, yellow jersey wearer Jonas Vingegaard also took home the polka dot jersey, while in 2020 and 2021, Tadej Pogacar added extra glory to his Tour de France victories by also snatching up the mountain classification.

In 2017, 2018 and 2019, it was Warren Barguil, Julian Alaphilippe and Romain Bardet, respectively, who delighted their home crowds by claiming the coveted prize and its corresponding garment. Predicting the final standings in the "king of the mountains" classification is quite challenging, especially since the ambitions of riders for such a ranking are usually somewhat vague - especially when compared to the other jerseys to be won. It often happens that a general classification rider, disappointed after a setback, redirects his focus towards the polka dot jersey. Ultimately, that only adds to the excitement!

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Most recent winners of the Tour de France polka dot jersey

2022 Jonas Vingegaard
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Romain Bardet
2018 Julian Alaphilippe
2017 Warren Barguil
2016 Rafal Majka
2015 Chris Froome
2014 Rafal Majka
2013 Nairo Quintana

Scoring system Tour de France polka dot jersey

After Pogacar's dominance in 2020 and 2021, Tour organizer ASO decided to abolish the double points on "hors catégorie" climbs. However, last year this new rule did not entirely achieve the 'desired' result, as Tour winner Vingegaard also secured the polka dot jersey. This year, ASO has not made any changes to the scoring system.

As is the case every year, the climbs are divided into five categories: fourth, third, second, first and "hors catégorie" (beyond category). Each climb of a specific category offers a certain number of points. Double points are no longer available, except in one specific case. At the so-called "roof of the Tour," the highest point reached by the peloton, bonus points can be earned. In this edition, the first rider to reach the top of the Col de la Loze (at an altitude of 2,304 meters, in stage seventeen) will receive a whopping forty points for the mountain classification.

Fourth category: 1 point
Third category: 2 and 1 point
Second category: 5, 3, 2 and 1 point
First category: 10, 8, 6, 4, 2 and 1 point
Hors catégorie: 20, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4 and 2 point (double points on Col de la Loze in stage seventeen)

Favorites mountain classification Tour de France 2023

In order to compile this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten picks in response to the question: "Who is most likely to win the points classification in the Tour de France?" Each top ten selection was assigned points according to the following scale: 12 points for the first-place rider, 10 points for the second-place rider, followed by 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 points and 1 point. The total number of points received by each rider was then converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points. This percentage is indicated alongside each respective rider, providing a better understanding of the odds as estimated by IDLProCycling.com.

10. Neilson Powless - EF Education-EasyPost (12.0%)

In recent years, Neilson Powless has consistently proven himself as an excellent climber. The 26-year-old American has competed in the Tour de France three times before, with his performances in the most recent edition garnering the most attention. The slender Yankee showcased himself at the front of the race multiple times by joining the early breakaway, ultimately resulting in two top-five finishes. He also secured a place in the upper echelons of the general classification, finishing 'La Grande Boucle' in twelfth position.

Powless is an attacking-minded rider who is currently in good shape. He has performed well in the classics, including a seventh-place finish in Milan-Sanremo and a fifth-place finish in the Tour of Flanders. He has also shown strong performances in stage races. For instance, Powless sprinted to a sixth-place finish in Paris-Nice. In February, he even claimed victory in the Étoile de Bessèges. The presence of Richard Carapaz at EF Education-EasyPost means that Powless is likely not the clear-cut team leader. However, it also allows the American rider to make an impact by either infiltrating early breakaways, contesting mountain points, or a combination of both.

9. Egan Bernal - INEOS Grenadiers (13.0%)

Egan Bernal is back! The 2019 Tour de France winner struggled with various health issues for over a year. However, in his recent races, he has shown signs of improvement. Thanks to his innate climbing talent, he is a strong contender for the polka dot jersey. In both the Tour de Romandie and the Tour of Hungary, he finished eighth in the general classification, while he placed twelfth in the Critérium du Dauphiné.

There is a possibility that Bernal, like his compatriot and teammate Daniel Felipe Martinez, will primarily focus on riding for a good overall classification. However, if that mission fails, it is also very likely that the amiable Colombian will shift his attention to the red and white jersey. On the other hand, it also wouldn't come as a surprise if Bernal opts for a different strategy and decides to go for the mountain jersey right off the bat.

8. Ruben Guerreiro - Movistar (13.0%)

On January 1st, 2023, Ruben Guerreiro made the switch from EF Education-EasyPost to Movistar, the team of riders such as Enric Mas and Alex Aranburu. The 28-year-old climber showed great promise in his first year riding with the blue squad, as evidenced by his stage victory in the Saudi Tour.

The Portuguese rider is the kind of cyclist who focuses all his efforts on winning a secondary classification. He has already achieved this feat in 2020 when he claimed the mountain classification in the Giro d'Italia, adding another reason to include him in our top picks for the polka dot jersey in the upcoming Tour de France!

7. Guillaume Martin - Cofidis (22.2%)

It should come as no surprise that Guillaume Martin is included in this list of favorites. First of all, the 30-year-old local rider is in good shape. He concluded the Critérium du Dauphiné with an impressive sixth-place finish. 'The philosopher on the bike' is the type of rider who initially focuses on the general classification, then has a bad day, and either fights his way back to his previous position through early breakaways or shifts his focus to secondary classifications (case in point: the mountain classification).

The Parisian knows what it takes to win a mountain classification in a grand tour, as he accumulated the most mountain points in the 2020 Vuelta a España. The fact that Martin is competing in a home race will consciously or subconsciously give him an extra boost. Keep an eye on this 'thinker'!

6. Felix Gall - AG2R Citroën Team (45.4%)

Who doesn't have to serve as a domestique for a team leader, can climb very well, is in shape and seems to have set his sights on the mountain classification? Felix Gall could very well be the answer to that question. The young Austrian managed to win a stage in the Tour de Suisse and finished eighth overall in the eight-day race. He has also consistently been in front during previous races.

Although Gall rides in the team of podium contender Ben O'Connor, that shouldn't dampen his polka dot jersey ambitions. It's not exactly far-fetched to think that Gall wouldn't have to put himself to good use for the Aussie and could instead chase his own ambitions. Moreover, he could even first test his personal success in the battle for the yellow jersey. The French WorldTour team has multiple horses to bet on, but Gall appears to be the most prominent figure when it comes to aspirations for the polka dot jersey.

5. Thibaut Pinot - Groupama-FDJ (51.9%)

How could we not include Thibaut Pinot in this list of favorites? The home rider has been performing well all year. In the recent Giro d'Italia, he kept everyone guessing as to his exact goals, but ultimately impressed us all with a solid performance that saw him win the mountain classification.

Normally, Pinot is in his final year as a professional cyclist. It would be a fitting end to his career if the winner of the 2018 Tour of Lombardy could finish his last Tour - the race that has brought him so many successes but also low points - with a triumph in the battle for the polka dot jersey. The 33-year-old climber definitely has wide support to do so. And, considering his strong form in recent weeks, it's not far-fetched to think that he could actually pull off a victory for the mountain classification. In the final week, the peloton will ride through the Vosges, Pinot's home region. It is this combination of capabilities and symbolism that earns him a fifth place in this list of favorites.

4. Richard Carapaz - EF Education-EasyPost (54.6%)

The qualities of Richard Carapaz need no further explanation. The 2019 Giro d'Italia winner, who also became the Olympic champion in Tokyo in 2021, left INEOS Grenadiers at the end of 2022 to join EF Education-EasyPost. Although he hasn't exactly racked up numerous victories since joining his new team, he did impressively win the Mercan'Tour Classic Alpes-Maritimes 2023.

There is a real possibility that a situation similar to the one we saw in the 2022 Vuelta could unfold in this Tour: Carapaz initially focuses on the general classification, struggles to make a significant impact, and then shifts his focus to stage wins and the mountain classification. In the Vuelta a España, things ultimately went quite smoothly for 'Richie', as he won three stages as well as the mountain classification. We wouldn't be surprised if the same happens in the Tour!

3. Tadej Pogacar - UAE Team Emirates (54.6%)

No matter which way you try to approach him, ultimately there is just no getting around this guy: Tadej Pogacar is, of course, giving his all in hopes of securing a third overall victory in the greatest cycling race in the world. The UAE Team Emirates powerhouse won the Tour in 2020 and 2021, and in both editions, he also impressively claimed the mountain classification. So, what is stopping him from pulling this off yet again in 2023?

While winning the polka dot jersey may not be the Slovenian's highest priority, it would certainly be a beautiful cherry on top of a third Tour victory in four years. There are plenty of mountain points to be earned in this 110th edition of the three-week stage race. Even in the challenging opening weekend in the Basque Country, where Pogacar could already wreak some serious havoc, there are quite a few points up for grabs. Go, Pogi, go!

2. Jonas Vingegaard - Jumbo-Visma (55.6%)

Jonas Vingegaard is gearing up for a second consecutive overall victory in the Tour de France. At the same time, the 26-year-old Danish rider is poised for a second triumph in the battle for the polka dot jersey. The Jumbo-Visma team leader is unlikely to be overly concerned if he doesn't bring home the jersey that Richard Virenque won seven times, but it would certainly be a nice bonus.

The course of this Tour de France should definitely be to Vingegaard's liking. Moreover, he currently appears to be the strongest climber in the men's peloton, which justifies his second place in this list of favorites. His form is certainly there, as evidenced by his victories in both the Critérium du Dauphiné and the Tour of the Basque Country. He particularly excelled in the former race, winning two stages.

1. Giulio Ciccone - Trek-Segafredo (90.7%)

Trek-Segafredo is heading to the Tour with a strong lineup. Mads Pedersen will lead the team in sprints, while the in-form Mattias Skjelmose focuses on the general classification. At the same time, Giulio Ciccone is known to be giving his all to conquer the mountain classification. Therefore, we cannot overlook the slim Italian, especially considering his top form. He has recently exceeded expectations in both one-day races and stage races.

The final stage of the Critérium du Dauphiné suited Ciccone perfectly, and he is one of the few who has openly declared his determination to win the polka dot jersey. One plus one equals two, right? Of course, things still need to go his way during the actual race, but in our opinion, Giulio has the best chance of being the rider who gets to don the white jersey with red polka dots in Paris.

Youri van den Berg (Twitter: @YourivndnBerg)