Favorites stage 10 Vuelta a España 2024 | A big chance of full throttle on the Mougas, but who will it be?

As mentioned in the introduction, the peloton will head from Ponteareas to Baiona on Monday afternoon. They will cover a distance of 159.6 kilometers, with four categorized climbs in between. This is the third time the Vuelta caravan departs from Ponteareas, although the race has never finished there. The town is located just above the Spanish-Portuguese border, in the so-called white wine paradise, Rías Baixas.

The Alto de Fonfría (15.4 kilometers at an average of 4.2 percent), a second-category climb, appears quite early in the stage. This would logically be a good climb for the breakaway of the day to form (if it’s allowed). The climb doesn’t feature many truly spectacular sections, so it’s pretty much straightforward climbing.

After descending the Fonfría climb, the riders continue on flat roads—remember: Spanish flat, meaning slightly undulating terrain—until more climbing appears after about 100 kilometers. The summits of the Alto de Vilachán (6.3 kilometers at an average of 5.5 percent) and the Alto de Mabia (6 kilometers at an average of 5.7 percent) are only 15 kilometers apart. The first climb is a third-category one, while the latter is a second-category climb.

Then, there’s only one more climb left, a first-category one, which should traditionally be the toughest of the day. Based on its characteristics, the Alto de Mougás certainly fits that description: 9.9 kilometers of climbing at an average of 6 percent. A steady climber's climb, as they say. It never really gets steep, although the first half of the climb is a bit tougher than the second half.

There are still 20 kilometers to go before reaching the finish in Baiona, mostly on descending roads. However, there is a small hill that will significantly slow down the pace, though it’s not too challenging. The final 4.5 kilometers are mostly flat again. A sprint among the general classification riders, a soloist, or a sprint among the breakaway? We’ll see what happens...

Climbs
27.4 km: Alto de Fonfria (15.4 km a 4.2%)
104.6 km: Alto de Vilachan (6.3 km a 5.5%)
119.8 km: Alto de Mabia (6.0 km a 5.7%)
139.3 km: Alto de Mougas (9.9 km a 6.0%)

Times
Start: 1:30 p.m.
Finish: 5:19 p.m.

The riders will be pleased, as Monday won't be quite as hot in Spain. 26 degrees Celsius is certainly a pleasant temperature, but if you're coming from regions where the mercury reached 40 degrees Celsius or more, it's a relief. You deserve it, gentlemen!

Well, this is a tough one. We don't expect a general classification rider to take the victory on Tuesday. The climbs might not be challenging enough for that, and we also don't immediately see which team would chase down a breakaway group. Therefore, we're mainly looking for potential breakaway specialists in this ranking. And those are difficult to predict...

Who can climb fairly well, is in good condition, and has a sharp sprint that could come in handy in the flat finale? Then we start to think of riders like Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates), and Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Wanty)...

In stages like this, we shouldn't underestimate Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) either. The Belgian, as we know by now, is capable of a lot. The same goes for Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), although we think this course might be just a bit too tough for him.

Potential (Belgian) breakaway candidates could also include Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Thomas De Gendt (Lotto-Dstny), Mauri Vansevenant (T-REX Quick-Step), and Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninck). We’re also looking at Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Wanty), Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike), Quentin Pacher (Groupama-FDJ), Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma), Mauro Schmid, and Felix Engelhardt (both Jayco-AlUla). And what about the pure attacker Oier Lazkano (Movistar)?

As you can guess, there are plenty of options. And we haven’t even mentioned general classification riders who have fallen out of contention, such as Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Marc Soler (UAE Team Emirates), and Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech).

If it does come down to a battle among the general classification riders, we should always consider Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe). He had a less-than-stellar day on Sunday, but with his strong finishing kick, he could go far. Normally, it would also be something for his teammate Roger Adrià, but he seems to be relegated to a supporting role.

The chances that riders like Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Enric Mas (Movistar), Mikel Landa (T-REX Quick-Step), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), or the red jersey wearer Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) will make a move seem slim. But they might surprise us!

Top favorites:Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Brandon McNulty (UAE Team Emirates)
Outsiders:Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla) and Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Wanty)
Long shots: Mauri Vansevenant (T-REX Quick-Step), Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Mathias Vacek (Lidl-Trek), Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma) and Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike)