Favorites stage 11 Vuelta a España 2024 | Punch legs and control Roglic (or Van Aert) will be required near finish

Van Aert outdid himself in the tenth stage, a day with a lot of climbing. Over 3,000 meters of elevation gain, but it wasn’t too much for him. Could he also handle the twelfth stage in a similar fashion? A day that begins with two uncategorized hills, followed by a third-category climb and then two ascents of the Puerto Aguasantas. At 5.7 kilometers at an average of 6.1%, this should still be manageable for the stronger riders.

But the finale is different. After a sprint for points in Sisto, the race heads toward the Puerto Cruxeiras. At 2.9 kilometers, it's the shortest climb of the day, but with an average gradient of 8.9%, it is also the steepest. This seems to be perfect for the punchers. Especially considering that after a fast descent, the finish is in Padrón, exactly where the stage started. Will the fast sprinters still be there after the narrow roads of the Cruxeiras? Or will we see a battle between the most explosive GC contenders?

Climbs
42.4 km: Puerto San Xusto (10.2 km at 4.2%)
81.2 km: Puerto Aguasantas (5.7 km at 6.1%)
117.9 km: Puerto Aguasantas (5.7 km at 6.1%)
158.5 km: Puerto Cruxeiras (2.9 km at 8.9%)

Times
Start: 1:30 PM locally / 7:30 AM EST
Finish: 5:21 PM locally / 11:21 AM EST

The weather remains great in Spain, even as we race around Padrón on Wednesday. Temperatures will rise to around 26 degrees Celsius, so the riders won’t be sweating too much. The wind is not expected to play a role, making it perfect racing weather.

Given his recent performance, Wout van Aert deserves to be mentioned first. He has pushed himself hard for his third stage win, and the course should suit him. Is the finale too tough? We no longer rule anything out, although it might be more suited to Sepp Kuss if the GC contenders start attacking each other. Or perhaps the American, now eight minutes behind the red jersey, could launch an attack and be given some leeway?

That might not be very realistic, as many teams will likely want to bring out the sledgehammer again on Wednesday. Controlling the race will be key, but if the leaders are allowed to contest the stage win in the finale, we are certainly considering Primoz Roglic. The Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe leader is the most explosive of the group, although Adam Yates (UAE), Richard Carapaz (EF) and Enric Mas (Movistar) showed themselves to be stronger climbers at the end of the first week. However, all three would first have to drop Roglic if they want to win.

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Maybe it's more realistic to think of two races within one for different prizes. Let Red Bull-BORA control if they want the stage win, while the others aim for time gains at this stage. Thus, climbers who are further back in the standings and have good legs might try something. Besides Van Aert, Junior Lecerf (Quick Step), Marc Soler (UAE) and Quentin Pacher (Groupama) were in the breakaway on Tuesday. Earlier in this Vuelta, riders like Jay Vine (UAE), David Gaudu (Groupama), Harold Tejada (Astana), Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla) and Max Poole (Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL) were already active. Isaac Del Toro with Pavel Sivakov could be the one to take over Soler’s role for UAE.

Can those pure climbers decide the stage? Or will we see a larger group surviving the early climbs? In that case, we should not rule out the punchers for the finale. Jhonatan Narváez for INEOS? Victor Lafay for AG2R? Michael Woods for Israel? Mauri Vansevenant for Quick Step? And finally, the GC contenders who might, with a bit of luck and good tactics, pull an Adam Yates — battling for the stage win and gaining time in the standings. Why would riders like Mikel Landa (Quick Step), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), or even the overall leader Ben O'Connor hold back if the opportunity arises?

Top favorites: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Richard Carapaz (EF), Enric Mas (Movistar), Mikel Landa (Quick Step), Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long shots: Ben O'Connor, Victor Lafay (AG2R), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Jay Vine, Isaac Del Toro, Pavel Sivakov (UAE), David Gaudu (Groupama), Michael Woods (Israel), Mauri Vansevenant (Quick Step), Max Poole (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)