Favorites stage 15 Tour de France 2024 | The ideal opportunity for Visma to strike back against UAE

Every day, Tour director Christian Prudhomme looks ahead to the stage to come, and this time the Frenchman said some very interesting things on the matter. "The third Sunday of the Tour could prove crucial," he believes. "Whatever happened in the mountains the previous days, the terrain of this stage is ripe for revenge or confirmation, with 4,850 meters of elevation gain on the menu over the course of almost two hundred kilometers of racing."

"All sorts of scenarios could play out and it is not unrealistic to imagine that teammates of the GC contenders will try to infiltrate the leading group climbing the Peyresourde," Prudhomme introduced a scenario he deems likely. "That would prove invaluable given what lies ahead, especially in a finale that includes the climbs of the Col d'Agnes and the Port de Lers, followed by the final climb u pto Plateau de Beille."

Okay, so we start from the starting point in Loudervielle with the Peyresourde. A dream for good climbers who want to be in the breakaway of the day, a disaster for the sprinters in this Tour. A good warm-up will therefore be crucial, otherwise both legs and lungs could get in some serious trouble on this climb.

From Bagneres-de-Luchon, we then thunder through a valley of just over twenty kilometers towards the next phase. This consists of the Col de Mente and the Col du Portet d'Aspet, two steep climbs. The Mente is 9.3 kilometers long at 9.1 percent, which after a descent is immediately followed word by the Aspet: 4.3 kilometers at 9.6 percent.

Afterwards, the race scenario - with a breakaway - is probably already established, but so-called satellite riders can prove to be of tremendous value in the subsequent intermediate section of more than sixty kilometers. Being alone versus together with several riders that are all on your team in the valley will make a world of difference.

The next obstacle is the Col d'Agnes, a ten-kilometer climb at 8.6 percent average with the center of gravity being at the start. At the top there is still sixty kilometers of racing to go, the first part of which also leads over the Port de Lers.

This is followed by a fairly long descent to Niaux, after which we gradually head towards the absolute dessert of the day: the Plateau de Beille, the nearly sixteen kilometer long Pyrenean Col that tracks up towards the heavens at an average rate of 7.9 percent. It begins with several steep kilometers of nine percent, where a difference can immediately be made. And that should surely be the case after this monster stage, that is looking for a successor to Joaquim Rodriguez. The Spaniard won in 2015, ahead of Jakob Fuglsang and Romain Bardet.

Climbs
7.0 km: COL DE PEYRESOURDE (6.9 km at 7.8%)
50.0 km: COL DE MENTÉ (9.3 km at 9.1%)
65.4 km: COL DU PORTET D'ASPET (4.3 km at 9.6%)
138.6 km: COL D'AGNÈS (10.0 km at 8.6%)
197.7 km: PLATEAU DE BEILLE (15.8 km at 7.9%)

Times
Start: 12:05 PM
Finish: around 5:41 PM

Just days before the rest day we often see the peloton hit full throttle and the meteorological conditions will surely lend themselves to that exact scenario on Sunday as well. The sun is prominent in the Pyrenees, where the wind will also blow at our backs for most of the day.

This Tour has already been quite the tug-of-war, with Tadej Pogacar riding in yellow for a long time and appearing to have the upper hand, until Jonas Vingegaard suddenly struck back in the second week. All eyes were on the Dane, who seemed intent on turning the race around in the Pyrenees. However, Pogacar countered in dominant fashion and won the 14th stage. On Sunday, the two riders will battle it out again. The question on everyone's minds: who will be the strongest this time?

The chances for the breakaway riders seem nil, now that Pogacar has tasted massive success and Visma | Lease a Bike, in turn, is getting the exact type of course it could use to counter UAE yet again. Just maybe we get a man-to-man that someone else can take advantage of? In that case, Remco Evenepoel is definitely the best of the rest. Minutes behind him in GC, we have UAE men João Almeida and Adam Yates, with Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) also looking to bring out their best legs heading into week three. Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale) may be able to take advantage of their position in the GC, just outside the top ten.

Of course, the rest of the men are not going to give up without a fight either, especially since we'll be climbing from the very start. The sturdy valleys play into the hands of some strong blocks to play off one leader for the final climb. Perhaps Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers) may go for his chances in the mountains and EF Education EasyPost has been very active for two weeks now. Ben Healy already gave it his all on Saturday, maybe Richard Carapaz will be an ideal candidate this time...

By now, we are clearly starting to see who is in good form and who is not. In that regard, let's not forget to include some of the other men who have already shown themselves in this Tour. Oier Lazkano (Movistar) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) will have the mountain jersey on their minds, Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny) will have to break out of his box, Louis Meintjes (Intermarché) is growing in this Tour, and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) are also more than capable of making something happen.

Top favorite: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates)
Outsiders: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-Quick Step), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Long shots: Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Richard Carapaz, Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiers), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X)