Favorites stage 15 Vuelta a España 2024 | Killer final climb to ski resort, which is music to Roglic's ears

The fifteenth stage of the Tour of Spain is an intense climbing feast of no less than 142.9 kilometers, ending on the grueling climb of the Cuitu Negru. But before we get there, plenty of other climbing awaits!

After a relatively straightforward approach of about 35 kilometers, we start with the Alto de la Colladiella, a first-category climb of 6.4 kilometers at an average of 8.2 percent. It's a nice climb to get into the rhythm!

Not too long after that comes the Alto de Santo Emiliano, which is much easier. This third-category climb is 5.6 kilometers long, and the road climbs an average of 4.9 percent. After that, it is time for the Alto de la Colladiella, which will be passed twice.

And then the icing on the cake is yet to come! The Ciutu Negru col is a tough one, it has to be said. On top of the Cuitu Negru is the Pajares ski area; you take a ski elevator or bike to get there. The riders do the latter, so they ride uphill for 18.9 kilometers at an average gradient of 7.4 percent.

That percentage is tough in itself, but then we haven't even mentioned the immensely tricky final kilometers, where there are sometimes peaks of 24 percent! At 7.5 kilometers from the finish, a section points upwards at 11 percent, while the last 2.5 kilometers are absolutely monstrous. That section rises nearly 13 percent on average and has the aforementioned extremes just before the summit.

Climbs
37.6 km: Alto de la Colladiella (6.4 km a 8.2%)
64.9 km: Alto de Santo Emiliano (5.6 km a 4.9%)
87.6 km: Colladiella (6.4 km a 8.2%)
142.9 km: Ciutu Negru (18.9 km a 7.4%)  

Timetable
Start: 1:51 pm
Finish: 5:20 pm  

Sunday's weather is also somewhat inconsistent, although it seems to improve as the day progresses. It will most likely rain in the morning, but by the time the late Spanish start time arrives, it should be much better. Indeed, between 2 p.m. and 5:30 p.m., the chances of precipitation are low —we're obviously keeping our fingers crossed—while the temperature will rise to around 21 degrees Celcius.

If we had omitted the previous uphill finish, we probably would have identified Enric Mas as the top favorite for stage fifteen. The Movistar Spanish leader was the only one who had shown no signs of weakness or doubts in the first week and a half, until stage thirteen, and he could no longer follow Primoz Roglic's wheel: Mas collapsed badly, although the damage was still limited.

This is why we are putting the Slovenian from Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe - who, as an ex-ski jumper, will like the fact that we are heading to a ski resort - as the absolute top favorite in this stage, in which we don't necessarily expect the breakaway riders to prevail. Roglic was slightly off on one stage but quickly returned to his old self and looked to be THE man to beat on the flanks of the Cuitu Negru col. With Daniel Felipe Martinez, Aleksandr Vlasov, and Florian Lipowitz as mainstays, he should also be able to come a long way.

Behind Mas and Roglic, Mikel Landa was almost always the third-best man in the race. On Friday, Landismo also showed his vigorous climber's legs, so we named the home rider of T-REX Quick-Step as a serious candidate. Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) also seems to be getting better and better in the race. The Dane also still has a shot at the white jersey, but he will have to deal with the also improving Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers). And speaking of improving riders, so does ''man in the shade'' David Gaudu, the Frenchman from Groupama-FDJ.

We would also like to note the names of Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), who is still a serious contender for the podium, and Sepp Kuss, who one secretly hopes and believes can improve a bit. On Friday, he seemed to have fired his power too early. Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates) appears to be lacking this round - except for one phenomenal day. And what about red jersey Ben O'Connor, who got two minutes on Friday from Roglic? Will he keep his jersey, or is it the end of the story for the Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale rider?

Should we still mention a few names in the breakaway raffle, we end up with guys like Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) and Filippo Zana (Jayco-AlUla).

Top favorite:Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Outsiders:Enric Mas (Movistar), Mikel Landa (T-REX Quick-Step) and Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots: Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) and Guillaume Martin (Cofidis)

Youri van den Berg (Twitter: @YourivndnBerg)