Favorites stage 16 Tour de France 2024 | Sprint teams face high stakes and strong winds on the Mediterranean

The organizers, it seems, are not entirely sadistic. After two very tough stages, the riders will get a relatively calm day on Tuesday, with the stage featuring only 1200 meters of elevation. However, before heading into the mountains of southern France for the rest of the week, the riders need to stay sharp from Gruissan to Nimes.

The stage starts in Gruissan, a tourist hotspot in the south of France. From there, the route passes through a nature reserve, then waves goodbye to the coast and heads north via Béziers. The Tour organization even 'warns' about the Mistral, the powerful wind that often blows in eastern France.

The intermediate sprint will be about 96 kilometers into the stage, at Les Matelletes, atop a tricky hill. Twenty kilometers later, there's a climb at Côte de Fambetou (1.2 kilometers at 5.0 percent), following which the riders descend again. In this phase, the wind will be at their backs, so they need to stay alert.

The stage finishes in Nimes, where the Vuelta started a few years ago. The final kilometers are quite straightforward, though the riders will encounter several roundabouts. In the last three kilometers, there are multiple roundabouts, with the last one 380 meters from the finish. If it comes down to a sprint, this will naturally force the riders into a nice line.

In 2021, the Tour last finished in Nimes, where Nils Politt (now UAE-Team Emirates) won from a breakaway.

Climb
112.6 km: CÔTE DE FAMBETOU (1.2 km at 5.0%)

Times
Start: 1:30 PM
Finish: around 5:41 PM

As the route runs along the coast, checking the wind direction is crucial. On Tuesday, the wind will blow strongly from the northwest, providing a tailwind in the pre-finale. In the final kilometer, the wind will be against the riders. Additionally, it will be hot in France, with temperatures exceeding 30 degrees Celsius.

This is the last chance for the fast men in this Tour de France, and they will be eager to seize it. There's no final sprint in Paris this year, but they didn’t endure the Pyrenees for nothing: they had this opportunity in Nimes in mind.

The two fastest men in this Tour are Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), with two and three stage wins respectively. The Belgian can count on five teammates, including world champion Mathieu van der Poel. The African rider has the luxury of his team holding the green jersey, allowing him to conserve his men's energy.

Other sprinters who have already won a stage in this Tour are Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla) and Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan Team), who will also want to capitalize on this final opportunity. The fact that it happens to be right after a rest day might also benefit the muscular legs of these riders.

So far, we’ve mentioned four names, but there are still many fast riders who haven’t won a stage yet. Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar), Arnaud Démare (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) and Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X) have all come close.

Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R), Marijn van den Berg (EF) and Bryan Coquard (Cofidis) have had more difficulties, but things can change in an instant. With the withdrawal of their team leaders, riders like John Degenkolb (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Danny van Poppel (RedBull-BORA-hansgrohe), Jasper Stuyven and Ryan Gibbons (Lidl-Trek) might get their chance.

There’s also the possibility of echelons or a very strong breakaway spoiling the sprinters' plans, with riders like Anthony Turgis (TotalEnergies), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and Stefan Bissegger (EF) in contention.

Top favorites: Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty)
Outsiders: Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla) and Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech)
Long shots: Mark Cavendish (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar), Arnaud Démare (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R), Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Danny van Poppel (RedBull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek)