Favorites stage 16 Vuelta a Espana 2023 | There's a reason Cantabria is so green....

After the rest day, during which the riders will be in the Cantabrian capital of Santander, the stage will kick off rather late in Liencres Playa on Tuesday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday feature relatively short stages, spanning 120 and 125 kilometers, respectively. Consequently, Tuesday's stage, which predominantly traces the rugged Cantabrian coast, will commence at 2:47 p.m.

If we were to ask Primoz Roglic about the first hundred kilometers, his response would likely lean towards "not much to say, huh?" The stage adopts a classic Spanish design: it may seem flat at first glance, but it continually undulates, with altimeters testing the riders' legs.

Much like the Basque Country, Cantabria is known for frequent rainfall, rendering it one of Europe's greenest regions. Tuesday may see a recurrence of these rainy conditions, potentially adding another dimension to the stage. In the event of rain, it's conceivable that the peloton could allow a significant breakaway group the opportunity to compete for the stage win.

At the 93-kilometer mark, an intermediate sprint is scheduled in Unquera. Following this, riders will take a left turn and head inland. Twenty-two kilometers later, the stage's main challenge presents itself: the ascent to Bejes, an uncharted climb in the Vuelta a España. This climb spans 4.8 kilometers with an average gradient of 8.8 percent, making it a demanding obstacle. However, it remains to be seen if Jumbo-Visma will control the stage from start to finish.

This leaves us pondering, as racing on two fronts can also be captivating to watch. The final climb kicks off with a steep gradient of 10.8 percent in the opening kilometer, followed by two relatively less challenging kilometers, before steepening once more in the final two kilometers. The penultimate kilometer features an 11.5 percent gradient, while the last eight hundred meters of the road incline at an average of 9.4 percent. These conditions are certainly challenging enough to create differences."

Climbs
120.1 km: BEJES (4.8 km at 8.8%)

Times
Start: 2:47 p.m.
Finish: around 5:30 p.m.

As previously mentioned, Cantabria often experiences significant rainfall, and Tuesday is expected to be no exception. Rainfall is forecasted throughout the day, with temperatures hovering around 22 degrees Celsius. Additionally, there will be a moderate northwest wind, initially diagonally opposing the riders for the first hundred kilometers and later shifting slightly to their backs.

Both Saturday and Sunday's Vuelta ended in a battle between the breakaway riders, mainly due to the pounding of Remco Evenepoel. Things don't seem to go so well on Tuesday, as Evenepoel has already indicated he wants to slow down. The Belgian is also moving closer to the top ten and wants to make sure he does not pose a threat to the general classification;

Finally, a successful breakaway is still the most likely scenario. After two weeks of the Vuelta, you can often tell who the guys to keep an eye on are before a mountain stage, although being along in a flat stage is often difficult. Romain Bardet (DSM-firmenich) and Michael Storer (Groupama-FDJ) will be able to encourage the flat riders in their team to give them a hand. 

The Frenchman and Australian battled Evenepoel for the stage win on Saturday, while Sunday's honors went toRui Costa (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Lennard Kämna (BORA-hansgrohe) and Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious). We'd also better keep an eye on those figures again, as well as the riders who competed for it at Laguna Negra: Jesús Herrada won there on behalf of Cofidis, ahead of Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) and Andreas Kron (Lotto-Dstny).

In addition to Buitrago, Bahrain Victorious has irons in the fire in case of a breakaway, with Antonio Tiberi, Wout Poels and Damiano Caruso. Furthermore, we will be looking out for Soudal Quick-Step's other clients, including Mattia Cattaneo and Jan Hirt. And, of course, Juan Pedro Lopez (Lidl-Trek), Einer Rubio (Movistar) and Lennert Van Eetvelt, who is doing a very good round on behalf of Lotto-Dstny.

Or is there a team that wants to ride for the stage win after all? Jumbo-Visma we see it with Sepp Kuss. Jonas Vingegaard and Primoz Roglic not doing it directly, but maybe UAE-Team Emirates will want to try something. Juan Ayuso is still feeling good and the team already showed at the weekend that they are not afraid to shake something out of their sleeves, including Marc Soler and Joao Almeida. 

BORA-hansgrohe (with the speedy Aleksandr Vlasov and revelation Cian Uijtdebroeks) and Movistar (Enric Mas) are a bit on the sidelines so far, but they might also decide to give it a shot on Tuesday.

Top favorites: Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious) and Romain Bardet (DSM-firmenich)
Outsiders: Juan Ayuso (UAE-Team Emirates), Primoz Roglic (Jumbo-Visma), Michael Storer (Groupama-FDJ) and Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious)
Longshots: Sepp Kuss, Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), Aleksandr Vlasov (BORA-hansgrohe), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Jesus Herrada (Cofidis), Lennard Kämna (BORA-hansgrohe), Rui Costa (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) and Andreas Kron (Lotto-Dstny)