Favorites stage 16 Vuelta a España 2024 | Rain and brutal climbs await Vuelta riders!

Looking at the profile of this 181.3-kilometer stage, it’s clear that any breakaway attempt needs to get clear within the first seventy kilometers. The peloton has often given attackers some leeway in this Vuelta, and if the break doesn’t contain any major threats, that could happen again. However, those in the breakaway will need strong climbing legs, as all three categorized climbs are pretty brutal.

After seventy kilometers, the riders will tackle the Mirador del Fito, a tough climb that stretches for 7.1 kilometers at an average gradient of 7.9 percent. This is a serious warm-up, but there's a short descent afterward that leads into a valley, providing a bit of a breather before the next challenge, the Collada Llamena. This climb is even tougher, at 7.6 kilometers with a 9.3 percent average gradient. GC contenders looking to shake things up may have their teams push the pace here but will likely save their own moves for later. After a swift descent, the route continues downhill and then gradually climbs up to the base of the final ascent.

The Lagos de Covadonga is a familiar test in the Vuelta. At 12.5 kilometers with an average gradient of 6.9 percent, it might seem like the easiest climb of the day, but don’t be deceived. The first ten kilometers are extremely steep, and only the brief flat sections and a descent toward the finish bring the average below 7 percent. Most of the climb is marked in dark red on the gradient map, with sections reaching up to 16 percent!

Times
Start: 12:50 PM (06:50 AM ET)
Finish: 5:18 PM (11:18 AM ET)

We haven’t seen much rain so far in this year’s Vuelta, but on Tuesday afternoon, the riders might have to start in rain gear. The weather is expected to dry up as the stage goes on, though it will stay cloudy, with temperatures below 20 degrees Celsius, making it rather cool. More rain is predicted for the latter part of the stage.

Which GC team will take the risk of going all out right after the second rest day? They might have to, with a flat stage coming up on Wednesday and another stage on Thursday that likely won’t favor the GC contenders. If anyone wants to strip Ben O'Connor of the red jersey, they’ll need to put him under pressure. Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe and Movistar are the teams to watch, with Primoz Roglic and Enric Mas closely matched. Both riders have strong teams to help them make a move.

With different weather conditions and fresh legs after the rest day, other teams might also step up. Mikel Landa tried to make a move with Soudal-Quick Step on Sunday but couldn’t make an impact—maybe the rain will give him an edge this time. Mattias Skjelmose enjoys cooler weather, and the Dane from Lidl-Trek is finding his rhythm as the race progresses. Could he be a contender for the win? Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) are also strong contenders outside the top ten who have shown they have the legs to make a difference. Meanwhile, Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates) have mostly been hanging on in recent stages.

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For a successful breakaway, the number of real contenders is narrowing. There might be fifty riders interested, but the hierarchy is becoming clear. We’re keeping an eye on riders like Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Pavel Sivakov (UAE-Team Emirates), and Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla) if they’re going for the stage win. And we can’t forget about Pablo Castrillo, the rising star from Equipo Kern Pharma.

Other potential dark horses? If Isaac Del Toro from UAE-Team Emirates has recovered from Covid-19, he could be a surprise contender. Felix Gall at Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale will be looking for redemption after falling out of the top ten on Sunday. Max Poole (Team DSM-Firmenich PostNL), Michael Woods, Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), and Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla) have already been in breakaways multiple times. And of course, we're still waiting for a big move from Sepp Kuss at Visma | Lease a Bike.

Top favorites: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Enric Mas (Movistar) and Max Poole (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL)
Outsiders: Mikel Landa (T-REX Quick-Step), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Michael Woods, (Israel-Premier Tech) and Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Pavel Sivakov, Adam Yates, Isaac Del Toro, Marc Soler (UAE-Team Emirates), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Eddie Dunbar, Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma) and Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech)