Favorites stage 17 Giro d'Italia 2024 | You can't win 'em all... Unless your name happens to be Tadej Pogacar

We begin around lunchtime in Selva di Val Gardena, the starting point of yet another monster stage in this Giro d'Italia. Before the start of the stage, the riders will have already completed significant kilometers on the rollers, as we immediately face a climb right from the start. The Passo Sella takes us up to 2,244 meters, where the weather will be cold again.

The Passo Sella is 8.9 kilometers long with an average gradient of 7.4 percent, but perhaps more importantly: at the top, riders must immediately start a long descent into Predazzo, leading to the same problem as Tuesday: will the riders simply agree to face the currently predicted weather conditions?

Anyway, according to the original route book, the climb to Passo Rolle would begin in Predazzo. It's a 19.8 kilometer climb at an average gradient of 4.8 percent, which you can divide into three sections. The first six kilometers have a gradient of 6.0 percent, followed by more than eight kilometers of a middle section, ending with the last five kilometers at a gradient of 6.5 percent.

From atop the Rolle, another significant descent follows, this time into Imer. Through the Passo Gobbera (third category, 5.8 km at 5.8%), we reach the foot of the Brocon for the first time. With fifty kilometers to go, we tackle the 13.3 kilometer long eastern side, which averages a 6.5 percent gradient.

After a small plateau at the top, we descend to Castello Tesino, where we face the Brocon from the southwest. This last obstacle is quite irregular, starting off fairly easy. Then it gets increasingly steeper, with the steepest section (10.5 percent average) found between five and two kilometers from the finish line. Then there is a short plateau, from which riders then launch into the final kilometer, which goes up at 5.8 percent.

Climbs
8.9 km: Passo Sella (8.9 km at 7.4%)
67.6 km: Passo Rolle (19.8 km at 4.8%)
100.4 km: Passo Gobbera (5.8 km at 5.8%)
122.2 km: Passo Brocon (13.3 km at 6.5%)
159.0 km: Passo Brocon (12.2 km at 6.4%)

Times
Start: 12:30 PM
Finish: around 5:11 PM

Just like Tuesday, the peloton will not get to enjoy favorable weather conditions. With the Sella Pass being the highest point, temperatures will again be near freezing, including a high chance of precipitation. The wind will mostly be unfavorable for most of the day, except on the final climb.

In the third week of a grand tour, the standings are often quite well-established, even in the Giro d'Italia. First and foremost, we have pink jersey Tadej Pogacar, who is well on his way to clinching the Trofeo Senza Fine in Rome. He has already mentioned looking forward to this "beautiful seventeenth stage", so he might be planning to make a big move. His loyal lieutenant Rafal Majka will be there to support him.

However, it would also be understandable if UAE-Team Emirates decided to let an early breakaway gain some space. In that scenario, Nairo Quintana takes the forefront: the Colombian riding for Movistar narrowly missed out on a stage win in the queen stage to Livigno on Sunday, but he gets another chance at victory in this grueling stage. In terms of the GC, the Spanish team can count on Einer Rubio, also a Colombian.

With three mountain stages remaining, the general classification or top ten, is also starting to fall into place. Given the large gap to Pogacar, we might see other GC riders attacking early. Romain Bardet of dsm-Firmenich PostNL is known to do this, although he had a tough day on Tuesday (which is becoming more usual for him following a rest day). He'll need to recover well by Wednesday if he wants to compete for the stage win.

To what extent can youngsters Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain) and Thymen Arensman (INEOS) still compete? The latter still has a card to play with his teammate and third-placed Geraint Thomas, who is waging a battle for the podium with Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R) and Daniel Felipe Martinez (BORA-hansgrohe). INEOS Grenadiers is the only team with two men in the GC top ten, which may give them an advantage over the competition.

There is also a fierce battle ongoing for places eight through ten: Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUla), Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step), Rubio, Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Michael Storer (Tudor), Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa) and even the veteran Domenico Pozzovivo could make a smart move to gain time, as their position in the standings might allow them some wiggle room.

Lastly, there are a number of riders who could try their luck from a breakaway: besides Quintana, this includes Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost), Giulio Pellizzari (VF Group-Bardiani), Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike), Nikola Conci (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Simon Geschke (Cofidis). All have shown good climbing legs in this Giro and are in a position to fully focus on the stage.

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
Outsiders: Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R) and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious)
Long shots: Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Thymen Arensman, Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers), Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step), Georg Steinhauser (EF Education-EasyPost), Michael Storer (Tudor), Einer Rubio (Movistar), Gilio Pellizzari (VF Group-Bardiani) and Filippo Zana (Jayco AlUla)