Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2023 | Vingegaard will aim to again drop Pogacar on tough Col de la Loze

What an incredible beast of a stage this will be! 5,400 meters of elevation gain in just 170 kilometers, spread over four mountain passes in the Alps. Merijn Zeeman, sporting director at Jumbo-Visma, described it as the "toughest stage of this Tour de France era" and compared it to a Giro d'Italia stage, as riders are likely to face incredible challenges such as this one in the Giro.

So, what exactly is on the schedule for this stage? We start off in Saint Gervais-Mont Blanc, where the finish was located on Sunday. Wout Poels won that stage, while Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar were keeping each other in check that day. From there, we head towards the Megeve airport, with sections that track slightly uphill and downhill.

After seventeen kilometers, we reach the first obstacle of the day: the Col des Saisies, 13.4 kilometers long with an average gradient of 5.1 percent. The Saisies can be considered a challenging climb, alternating between steeper and flatter sections. It's an ideal opportunity for the adventurous riders to make a breakaway.

From the summit, we head towards the intermediate sprint in Beaufort, from where the wind will blow the riders in the direction of the next climb. The Cornet de Roselend is a well-known climb in the Tour, thanks to its killer characteristics: 19.9 kilometers long with an average gradient of six percent. And that even includes three flatter kilometers - so just imagine how steep the rest of this climb is. Moreover, caution is advised during the descent of this pass, as several riders have gone over the edge here in the past.

After completing the descent, we continue on the flat towards the Cote de Longefoy. It has been categorized as a second-category climb, but the average gradient of 7.5 percent over more than six kilometers is nothing to underestimate. And then we haven't even mentioned the final stretch towards Notre Drame du Pre yet.

However, it pales in comparison to the last obstacle of the day: the Col de la Loze, which is gradually becoming one of the most feared mountain passes in France. It stretches for a staggering 28 kilometers with an average gradient of six percent, but once again, there are flatter sections along the way. However, these are more than compensated for by the final five kilometers of the climb, which are consistently steep. Additionally, bonus seconds are up for grabs at the summit.

An additional factor is the altitude of this climb, as the summit of the Col de la Loze is situated at 2,300 meters above sea level. If you exhaust yourself in those final steep kilometers, you will face a long struggle to reach the top. Once you reach the summit, there is a descent of six kilometers before we once again start climbing in the final few hundred meters towards the Courchevel airport, with gradients reaching around eighteen percent.

Times
Start: 12:20 p.m.
Finish: approximately 5:05 p.m.

The various weather stations are not completely in agreement yet for Wednesday. There is a chance of rain in the Alps towards the end of the afternoon, but one meteorologist is more certain about it than the other. However, they do agree on the expected temperature, which will stay above 20 degrees Celsius.

Well, we didn't expect it, but the Tour seems to be slowly coming to an end: Jumbo-Visma had previously stated that they would go all-in on Wednesday, but now that doesn't seem necessary anymore. Nevertheless, looking at the profile of this stage, we cannot help but put Jonas Vingegaard forward as our top favorite, as the whopping 5,400 meters of elevation gain will naturally see the best climbers rise to the front of the pack.

Tadej Pogacar seems to be on the ground, but perhaps that's when he is most dangerous. The Slovenian is far ahead of the rest of the top ten and will still try to give it his all on Wednesday. Maybe UAE-Team Emirates will even bring out their trump card, Adam Yates. Although that could also be a sort of self-sabotage towards his third place.

The fact that Yates has only a small advantage over fourth-placed Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers) makes that choice risky. The other riders in the top ten can also still make a move and end up higher in the rankings: Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe), Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) and Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla) are not too far apart.

The same applies to the riders slightly lower in the top ten: Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) will battle it out for the best French team, which promises to be exciting as they are also fighting for positions nine to eleven.

What about the breakaway? They might have a chance. This brings us to the riders we've already seen in the other Alpine stages: Lidl-Trek duo Giulio Ciccone and Mattias Skjelmose, Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), even Wout van Aert (Jumbo-Visma), and also Wout Poels and Mikel Landa of Bahrain Victorious. An outsider to keep an eye on could be Harold Tejada, currently the best Colombian rider in the Tour representing Astana. In a high-altitude stage, that could be a decisive factor.

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates)
Outsiders: Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma), Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Longshots: Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën), Harold Tejada (Astana Qazaqstan Team), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ) and Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe)