Favorites stage 2 Tour of the Alps 2025 | Lidl-Trek calls the shot: Ciccone again, or a breakaway surprise

After the start in Mezzolombardo, the riders will get straight down to business after 18 kilometers. The Monte San Pietro climbs immediately for 19.1 kilometers at 6.1 percent and will shape a strong leading group. After a 4-kilometer descent at 4 percent, we arrive at the foot of the San Valentino di Soprano. It is not categorized, but with 12.4 kilometers at an average gradient of 8.2 percent, it is not only steep on the profile card. The steepest 100 meters: 15.9 percent!

After all this climbing, there is a long descent into the valley before we start climbing again to the top of the Castelrotto. This climb has not been categorized in the mountain classification, but the first 7.4 kilometers climb at an average gradient of 7.1 percent. After that, it flattens out a bit towards the top. Another descent follows before the riders tackle the final 50 kilometers on a slightly uphill course.

After 146.5 kilometers, we arrived at the final lap, which was completed twice. We started with the climb up the Telves di Sopra. It is short and challenging at 4 kilometers and an average gradient of 7 percent, with sections of up to 8.9 percent. Strangely enough, this climb counts twice for the mountain classification in the third category. After the top of the last climb, it is another 10.5 kilometers to the finish line in Sterzing. Will it be a sprint from a small group? Or will someone arrive solo?

Times
Start: 10:25 AM local time (04:25 AM EDT)
Finish: around 3:15 PM (09:15 AM EDT)

On Tuesday morning, the riders will receive a warm departure at the start in Mezzolombardo. The temperature will rise above 15 degrees Celsius. In the afternoon, it will even reach 20 degrees Celsius in the valleys, but it will obviously be cooler at the top of the climbs. The forecast says no rain, even at the finish in Sterzing, where it'll be a nice 17 degrees Celsius when the riders cross the line.

The first stage of the Tour of the Alps caused some differences, with quite a few GC contenders taking a hit. Thymen Arensman (INEOS, 19 seconds), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain, 24 seconds), and Derek Gee (Israel, 45 seconds) are already facing a deficit in the GC behind Giulio Ciccone. Lidl-Trek will certainly not give these three riders too much slack if they try to make a move in the final.

The same goes for the guys who finished at the same time as Ciccone and showed they were in good shape. Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale saw Felix Gall and Paul Seixas come through, and Picnic-PostNL can build on the performance of Romain Bardet and Max Poole. As expected, Jai Hindley didn't surprise anyone for Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, just like Michael Storer from Tudor.

If the leaders go for a sprint finish like on day 1, Seixas could challenge Ciccone on the flat. But don't forget Matthew Riccitello, who is fast for Israel-Premier Tech.

But it's also realistic that Lidl-Trek will let a less dangerous breakaway group ride away. In that case, the breakaway could make it to the finish line. But to catch the breakaway, you must be in good shape on the incredibly tough opening climb. At Lidl-Trek, we see Lennard Kämna, who could make it easy for his team in the chase by going for the stage win, as he already tried in Catalonia. Tao Geoghegan Hart could also give it a try.

Looking further down the rankings, more climbers could win a stage like this from the attack. Koen Bouwman (Jayco-AlUla) and the Polti brothers Mattia and Davide Bais will try. Convinced that many of the GC teams will not show their cards, we also think of Óscar Rodríguez (INEOS), Jefferson Cepeda (EF), who was already on the attack on day 1, and Israel-Premier Tech, which has old hands like Chris Froome and Jakob Fuglsang, but also Marco Frigo.

For example, Tudor will also want to go for the stage win with Florian Stork, who could then immediately go for the leader's jersey. However, the German rider would have to be labeled as “not dangerous” by the peloton.

Top favorites: Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Paul Seixas (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)
Outsiders: Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Davide or Mattia Bais (Polti), Florian Stork (Tudor) and Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL)
Long shots: Lennard Kämna (Lidl-Trek), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Max Poole (Picnic-PostNL), Michael Storer (Tudor) and Óscar Rodríguez (INEOS)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])