Favorites stage 20 Tour de France 2023 | Vingegaard will be chasing the ideal farewell photo for Jumbo-Visma!

For the first time since 2019, the organizers of the Tour de France have chosen not to include a time trial on the penultimate day. In that year, a grueling stage with a summit finish on Val Thorens was on the schedule, where the clever Vincenzo Nibali made a strong move. However, the 2023 edition takes a completely different approach, as the ASO seems to have taken inspiration from its little brother, the Vuelta.

So what exactly does that entail? Stages without the true giants, but with multiple challenging hills or mountains along the way. In this particular stage, it entails six climbs within just 133 kilometers of racing, two of which are categorized as first category and three as second category. It's an episode where ambushes can happen at any moment, but the real battle for this Tour's yellow jersey seems to already have been decided.

Whether there's a battle for the yellow jersey or not, we will kick off after early afternoon in Belfort. The road gradually ascends towards the Ballon d'Alsace after twelve kilometers. This 11.5-kilometer climb, with an average gradient of 5.2 percent, promises to be a slow and steady test for the riders. After a fairly long descent and the intermediate sprint in Fresse-sur-Moselle, the riders face a challenging three-stage climb.

At the fifty-kilometer mark, the Col de la Croix des Moinats, a 5.2-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 7.1 percent, awaits the peloton. This is followed by a short descent, leading to the Col de Grosse Pierre, a 3.2-kilometer climb with an 8 percent gradient, but a demanding middle section with gradients consistently above eleven percent. Not exactly pleasant after three weeks of challenging Tour riding. There's no time to recover as we immediately head to the next obstacle via a plateau: the Col de la Schlucht, 4.3 kilometers at a 5.4 percent average gradient.

Afterward, the riders will finally face a long descent, spanning eighteen kilometers. This is the moment to really recharge those legs because immediately after, the Petit Ballon awaits. The name "Petit" (French for small, ed.) doesn't do this climb any justice, as its 9.3 kilometers in length and 8.1 percent average gradient make it a serious challenge. The first kilometer is particularly steep, right from the start.

What goes up must come down. After conquering the Petit Ballon, we head downhill towards Sondernach. From that point, we immediately begin the ascent of the Platzerwasel, a beautifully named climb. This one is seriously steep (8.4 percent) and unpredictable (several very steep sections), but it is a bit shorter (7.1 kilometers).

At the summit, the road continues to climb for a short, challenging stretch with gradients above seven percent before we start descending sharply towards the red flame. From that point, the riders will only have one more kilometer to go, with the road gently rising until they reach the finish line in Le Markstein.

Times
Start: 1:30 p.m.
Finish: approximately 4:55 p.m.

The riders have little to complain about when it comes to the weather forecast. In the Vosges, temperatures are around 20 to 25 degrees Celsius, and the wind is coming from the southwest. This means that for most of the stage, the wind will be at their backs, but in the last forty kilometers, it will be coming diagonally from the front.

Plan ready? Let the race begin! Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) revealed after the nineteenth stage that he and his team already have their tactics mostly sorted for Saturday, and that can only mean one thing. Jonas wants to put the finishing touches on the Vingegaard. The Danish rider wasn't able to celebrate a stage victory with his yellow jersey yet, so there's hardly a better framed photo to gift sponsor Jumbo for their office in Veghel. Even a victory for Sepp Kuss can't top that.

Rival Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) sounded a bit more nuanced after the setback he experienced earlier this week. The Slovenian mainly expressed his hope to turn things around with his team, explicitly mentioning that they have several options. Who might those options be? Possibly Adam Yates, although he's still fighting for the third spot. Or maybe Rafal Majka or Marc Soler, as part of the early breakaway?

After three weeks of the Tour de France, everyone is undoubtedly exhausted, but there is still a jersey to be fought for. Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), as the holder of the polka dot jersey, must get through the last two challenging climbs, but the two best climbers of the Col de la Loze are now hot on his heels: in addition to Vingegaard, we also have Felix Gall of AG2R Citroën, the winner of that stage.

Gall, the Austrian rider, finds himself in a sort of no man's land in the overall classification, which might give him some leeway. However, the same cannot be said for A. Yates, his brother Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), and Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe). They are still quite close to each other in the general classification and will undoubtedly target one another.

David Gaudu, Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), and Guillaume Martin (Cofidis) may also try to make a move, but after three weeks, it seems their legs are running on empty. The same could be said for riders like Mikel Landa (Bahrain Victorious, but keep an eye on teammate Wout Poels!) and Warren Barguil (Arkéa Samsic). Perhaps someone like Georg Zimmermann (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), or Michal Kwiatkowski (INEOS) could still pull off an impressive feat, but that may be grasping at straws at this point.

Top favorites: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën)
Outsiders: Tadej Pogacar, Adam Yates (both UAE-Team Emirates), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) and Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious)
Longshots: Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Carlos Rodríguez, Michal Kwiatkowski (INEOS Grenadiers), Sepp Kuss (Jumbo-Visma), Rafal Majka (UAE-Team Emirates), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Mattias Skjelmose and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)