Favorites stage 20 Vuelta a España 2024 | A barbaric stage, entirely in Vuelta style

We have already encountered several steep final climbs in this Vuelta, and we have also faced some significant elevation changes along the way. However, the twentieth stage, with more than 5,000 meters of elevation gain, surpasses everything else. From the start, it is all about climbing, and it only ends at the summit of the extremely steep Picón Blanco. This will be a spectacular stage where both breakaway riders and general classification contenders can expend their last bit of energy.

The lead-up to the final climb, as always, is not as difficult as the main event. The climbs vary from 5.8 to 14.0 kilometers, with gradients ranging from 3.1 to 6.1 percent on average, offering no truly leg-breaking sections.

However, the succession of climbs, and especially the fact that we are now in the third week, can turn a climb of 11.3 kilometers at 6.0 percent into a point in the race where riders could crack.

The Picón Blanco is a familiar climb in the Vuelta a España. Until 2020, it was a regular feature in the Vuelta a Burgos, where Remco Evenepoel won in 2020. Rein Taaramäe, as a breakaway rider, was the last to win at the summit of this 7.9-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 9.1 percent. The Estonian finished far ahead of the favorites, although the small group of just seven leaders demonstrated that the Picón Blanco is a fair test, even on day three of the Vuelta.

Climbs
34.2 km: Estacas de Trueba (9.2 km at 3.1%)
49.2 km: Puerto de la Braguia (5.8 km at 5.9%)
74.0 km: Alto de Caracol (10.8 km at 5.4%)
93.0 km: Portillo de Lunada (14.0 km at 6.1%)
111.4 km: Portillo de la Sia (7.2 km at 6.1%)
146.4 km: Puerte de los Tornos (11.3 km at 6.0%)
172.0 km: Picon Blanco (7.9 km at 9.1%)

Times
Start: 1 PM locally / 7 AM EST
Finish: 5:17 PM locally / 11:17 AM EST

The weather has been dramatic in the final week of the Vuelta, but on the penultimate day, the forecast suggests a sunny battle on the climbs. From the start in Villarcayo, the sun will shine, with temperatures reaching over 20 degrees Celsius. The same conditions will persist throughout the stage, with a gentle breeze blowing from the northwest. At the summit of Picón Blanco, the temperature is expected to be around 13 degrees Celsius.

The Vuelta a España seems to be falling into a fold, but beware: Primoz Roglic of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe will have to prove himself again on Saturday. The Slovenian seems to have the strongest team and only needs to follow the others, as theoretically, he can always finish it off with his sprint on the Picón Blanco.

Who are the riders he needs to follow? We are talking about the men behind him, like Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Enric Mas (Movistar), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost). Mas and Gaudu seem to have the best form among them, but do not underestimate Carapaz’s courage in a stage like this. For O'Connor, this stage will likely revolve about simply defending his position.

Behind them, the battle for the white jersey continues between Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Florian Lipowitz, one of Roglic's lieutenants. They are only one minute apart and will likely attack each other during this stage.

Further down the standings, Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step) and Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike) need to win this stage to turn their Vuelta into a real success. Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla) already has a stage win but showed on Friday that he is still in excellent form. And what about Adam Yates of UAE-Team Emirates?

The breakaway riders also have a chance, and we can expect a mix of riders who have already shown their climbing legs and bravery in this grand tour: Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Cristian Rodriguez (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma), Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Marc Soler (UAE-Team Emirates) and Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team) still seem eager.

Top favorites: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Enric Mas (Movistar)
Outsiders: David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
Long shots: Eddie Dunbar (Jayco AlUla), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma), Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Marc Soler (UAE-Team Emirates) and Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team)