Favorites stage 4 Tour of the Alps 2025 | 4 stars, but whoever wants to challenge Storer's lead, has to start early

As mentioned, the fourth stage of the Tour of the Alps is the toughest on paper, with four stars. The 162.7-kilometer ride starts in Sillian and finishes in Obertilliach. Why is it tough? Right from the start, the riders climb immediately, slowly but surely becoming a mountain climb. After 35 kilometers, we reach the top in Misurina, although this 5.6-kilometer climb at 5.5 percent is still uncategorized.

After the top, there is a long descent before we reach the foot of the Passo di Sant'Antonio. Again, it is not categorized for the mountain classification, but with 7.6 kilometers at an average gradient of 8.3 percent, the riders may think differently. The last 2 kilometers level out, meaning that the gradients in the first 6 kilometers are almost exclusively between 9 and even above 10 percent.

After two climbs, it is almost immediately time for the Passo Monte Croce Comelico, a 9-kilometer climb. There's no point in trying to attack here because, after the summit, we have a long descent to the foot of the Anras Oberried—finally, a categorized climb, 4.6 kilometers at an average gradient of 8.4 percent. But watch out for the gradients in the opening phase, which are well into double digits.

The day's last climb is also categorized after an uncategorized bump of just over 2 kilometers at around 10 percent. The riders still have 7.6 kilometers to climb, with steeper gradients at the beginning and end. The summit is 7.5 kilometers from the finish, which is reached after a short descent and then a punchy finish uphill in Obertilliach.

Times
Start: 10:50 AM local time (04:50 AM EDT)
Finish: around 3:15 PM local time (09:15 AM EDT)

The Tour of the Alps has had good weather so far, but it is becoming more unpredictable now that we have reached Austria. There may be a few drops of rain at the start in Sillian. During the stage, the riders will be advised to take a rain jacket with them, as it might rain. However, the sun will also shine occasionally, so we must wait and see if it rains. At the finish in Obertilliach, it is expected to be cloudy with a chance of rain, which is a fitting conclusion to this day.

After the magnificent solo victory of Marco Frigo (who we immediately mention as an outsider on behalf of Israel-Premier Tech), we will start with the breakaway riders who might make it to the finish line. The final climb is not super steep, so that does not necessarily play into the hands of the GC contenders in the final. Who else has shown good legs during the first three days?

At Lidl-Trek, we saw Lennard Kämna make his much-anticipated move on Wednesday. With the rest of Lidl-Trek supporting their leader, the German rider seems to have some freedom to do his thing. He's still not in top form, so we're looking at other teams. Jayco-AlUla seems like a team that can attack now that Eddie Dunbar can't keep up with the best. Can the Irishman break away himself, or is it an opportunity for Koen Bouwman or Paul Double?

INEOS Grenadiers have also opted for the attack and, alongside the seemingly improving Thymen Arensman, it could be men like AJ August and Oscar Rodriguez who go on the offensive. Nicolas Prodhomme (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Florian Stork (Tudor), Chris Hamilton (Picnic-PostNL), Manuele Tarozzi (Bardiani), and Davide Bais (Polti) have also been on the offensive this week.

Among the GC contenders, we are very curious to see who will dare to make a move. Michael Storer will not be allowed to ride as the GC leader on behalf of Tudor, so the Australian will have to defend his position. Do Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain), Decathlon duo Paul Seixas and Felix Gall, Jefferson Cepeda (EF) or Picnic duo Romain Bardet and Max Poole have the legs to make something happen? Or will young riders like Matthew Riccitello (Israel) and Davide Piganzoli (Polti) attack again?

Top favorites: Michael Storer (Tudor) and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders: Paul Seixas (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Romain Bardet (Picnic-PostNL), Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Paul Double (Jayco-AlUla)
Long shots: Davide Piganzoli (Polti), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Jefferson Cepeda (EF), Matthew Riccitello, Marco Frigo (Israel-Premier Tech), Max Poole (Picnic-PostNL), Koen Bouwman (Jayco-AlUla) and Thymen Arensman (INEOS)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])