Favorites stage 4 Vuelta a España 2024 | First clash uphill: Roglic versus UAE-Team Emirates?

The first serious test in this Vuelta a España will be the Pico Villuercas. But before reaching the summit after 170 kilometers, the riders will already have had to tackle several other climbs in a stage that starts in Plasencia.

There are three other climbs to contend with first, beginning with the Puerto de Cabezabellosa (9.2 km at 5.4%). This second-category climb appears fairly early in the stage and will likely serve as a launching pad for potential breakaway riders. The same could happen on the following Alto de Piornal (13.9 km at 5.6%), which is actually a first-category climb.

Next comes a relatively long, flat plateau leading to a slightly easier ascent, the Puerto de Miravete (8 km at 4.5%). After that, it’s still 45 kilometers to the finish, which is atop the Pico Villuercas, a 14.6-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 6.2%. However, those numbers are misleading because the gradient rarely dips below 12% between five and two kilometers from the finish.

Climbs
23.9 km: Puerto de Cabezabellosa (9.2 km at 5.4%)
54.1 km: Alto de Piornal (13.9 km at 5.6%)
123.4 km: Puerto de Miravete (8 km at 4.5%)
170.4 km: Pico Villuercas (14.6 km at 6.2%)  

Times
Start: 1:05 PM
Finish: around 5:20 PM

Hot, hotter, hottest! That’s the meteorological theme for day four of the Vuelta, which is expected to bring many more scorching days. At the start in Plasencia, the temperature is a sizzling 37°C (99°F), and it won’t be much different around Pico Villuercas. Fortunately for riders who struggle with the heat, it may cool down slightly as they climb higher, although the difference will likely be minimal since the finish is at 'only' 1,500 meters above sea level.

It's still a bit of a guessing game as to who will be in top form when it comes to climbing in this Vuelta, but we can make some early predictions based on the time trial (and other factors, of course). Primoz Roglic of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe posted the best time among the general classification contenders in the time trial. Although the Slovenian didn't start the Vuelta at full fitness, he still recorded an impressive time. In Spain, Roglic always seems to find an extra gear, as evidenced by his three overall victories. Will he also be the strongest GC rider on the first uphill finish? His strong finishing kick is certainly an extra weapon.

Roglic will face serious competition, particularly from UAE-Team Emirates. Joao Almeida and Adam Yates, who described Roglic as an enigma beforehand, are the team's leaders. Almeida also posted a solid time trial in his home country, while Yates finished 29th. That might not say much, but it certainly wasn't a poor result! Can Tadej Pogacar's Tour de France domestiques finish it off themselves on this first mountain stage? Additionally, the team has the young talent Isaac del Toro as a backup.

We should also mention Richard Carapaz, the Ecuadorian rider from EF Education-EasyPost. As the Tour de France progressed, Carapaz seemed to get stronger, ultimately earning him a stage win and the polka dot jersey. In the Vuelta, he wants to prove himself as a GC contender again, so he’ll need to be sharp on Pico Villuercas! We have confidence in him!

Other riders who performed well in the individual time trial include Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek). For Lipowitz, the question is how much he will need to sacrifice for his team leader Roglic, while Skjelmose has been clear for months that he’s fully focused on this Vuelta. Another young rider, Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), had an excellent Giro d’Italia and should be able to keep up with the best here as well. And what about Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), the leader of the yellow-black brigade and the defending champion?

We should also mention a few other GC contenders, though we give them slightly lower chances. These include Carlos Rodriguez, Thymen Arensman (both INEOS Grenadiers), Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Enric Mas (Movistar), Isaac del Toro (UAE-Team Emirates), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), and Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Dstny).

Of course, there's always a chance—especially in Spain—that the breakaway could make it to the finish. Predicting who might be in the break is a bit of a lottery, but we would keep an eye on William Junior Lecerf (Soudal Quick-Step), Geoffrey Bouchard (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech), Pelayo Sanchez (Movistar), and Ion Izagirre (Cofidis).

Top favorites: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Joao Almeida (UAE-Team Emirates)
Outsiders: Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Long shots: Mattias Skjelmose, Giulio Ciccone (both Lidl-Trek), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Enric Mas (Movistar), Isaac del Toro (UAE Team Emirates), Carlos Rodriguez and Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers)