Favorites stage 5 Tour Down Under 2024 | Milan Vader for his trick, or does Del Toro run the show?

129 kilometers and 1377 altimeters—those are the numbers the riders will have to face on Saturday in the Tour Down Under. However, looking beyond the statistics, the towering figure is undeniably Willunga Hill: the focal point 22 times (!) in the Australian WorldTour opener of the season, briefly absent only last season.

Starting from Christies Beach, near Adelaide, the race covers a flat hundred kilometers before reaching Willunga Hill, featured twice along the way. The three-kilometer, seven-percent climb first appears with 25 kilometers to go, after which the main focus naturally shifts to the uphill finish.

Richie Porte achieved an impressive six-year winning streak there, with notable names like Alejandro Valverde and Simon Gerrans also claiming victory. However, the latest winner is still Matthew Holmes of Lotto Soudal in 2020. The now-retired Brit secured his win from an early breakaway, leaving room for a new successor.

he initial kilometer and a half pose the toughest challenge at 8.5 percent, making it crucial for pure climbers to assert themselves early. Indeed, in the second part of the climb, the gradients ease to five to six percent."

Climbs
106.5 km: Willunga Hill (3 km a 7%)
129.3 km: Willunga Hill (3 km a 7%)

Times
Start: 11:10 a.m. (01:40 a.m. Dutch time)
Finish: 2:31 p.m. (05:01 a.m. Dutch time)

30 degrees, sunshine and a breeze slanting at the back on the final climb. This is to the advantage of the attackers, although the entire peloton will enjoy these conditions.

Judging by the past few days, one man has impressed in basically every stage, and that is Jhonatan Narváez of INEOS Grenadiers. The Ecuadorian won the introductory criterium, competed successfully in the sprints, picked up bonus seconds, and demonstrated himself as the best puncher on Fox Creek in stage two alongside Luke Plapp. Unfortunately, Plapp is no longer with us after his crash on day three, a significant loss. This is a setback primarily for himself, but also for the entire Tour Down Under and his team, Jayco AlUla. They must now focus entirely on Simon Yates. There's no shame in that, but a team is always much stronger with two.

Isaac del Toro will start Saturday's stage as the leader after his phenomenal performance in stage two, but should we expect the very young Mexican, in his first WorldTour race, to dominate right away? No, but we'll be curious to see how far he goes. With Finn Fisher-Black, Antonio Morgado, Alessandro Covi, and Diego Ulissi, his team still has supporting riders.

Julian Alaphilippe, representing Soudal Quick-Step, doesn't seem to be in his best form yet, but, of course, he's still Alaphilippe. The Dutch teams Visma | Lease a Bike and DSM-Firmenich PostNL also have riders to watch out for next weekend. On one hand, they feature Milan Vader, Koen Bouwman, and Bart Lemmen, while on the other hand, Briton Oscar Onley is well-suited for this kind of finish. From a Dutch perspective, we'll also be keeping an eye on Lars Boven of Alpecin-Deceuninck, who is riding very strongly.

There are still riders like Stephen Williams and Corbin Strong, for example, the second and third-place finishers in stage two. Or even Biniam Girmay, who, on behalf of Intermarché-Wanty — which also includes Georg Zimmermann — can climb well on a good day and is always up for a sprint. We shouldn't underestimate Movistar-Portuguese Ruben Guerreiro and teammate Gonzalo Serrano, local hero Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious), Roger Adria from the successful team BORA-hansgrohe, and the versatile Lidl-Trek formation, which includes Quinn Simmons, Bauke Mollema, Mathias Vacek, and Natnael Tesfatsion. EF Education-EasyPost also has a promising talent in Archie Ryan for rides like this.

Top favorites: Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla)
Outsiders: Isaac del Toro (UAE-Team Emirates), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Oscar Onley (dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Milan Vader (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Long shots: Ruben Guerreiro (Movistar), Finn Fisher-Black (UAE-Team Emirates), Stephen Williams, Corbin Strong (Israel-Premier Tech), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Roger Adria (BORA-hansgrohe), Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious) and Quinn Simmons (Lidl-Trek)