Favorites stage 6 Tirreno-Adriatico 2024 | The million-dollar question: is Vingegaard satiated or not?

The penultimate stage of the Tirreno-Adriatico is the absolute queen stage of this year's edition, although Saturday's stage was certainly noteworthy as well. We start around 12:05 PM in Sassoferrato, heading off on a 180-kilometer ride. The first ten kilometers immediately go uphill, which is advantageous for strong breakaway riders looking to make something happen.

After 65 kilometers, the riders begin the Forchetta climb, 7.2 kilometers at 4.5 percent, the first categorized climb of the day. This is essentially the midsection of the stage, where the pre-finale starts with the Piani di Trebio (7.0 kilometers at 5.0 percent) and Moria (2.4 kilometers at 8.4 percent) climbs.

After that last hill, there are ten descending kilometers leading to the absolute finale of the stage, the Monte Petrano. Ten kilometers long, an average of eight percent, and actually nowhere below seven percent: this is where the general classification of the Italian WorldTour race will take shape!

Climbs
67.0 km: La Forchetta (3.2 km at 7.3%)
151.5 km: Moria (2.4 km at 8.5%)
180.0 km: Monte Petrano (10.0 km at 8.0%)

Times
Start: 12:05 PM
Finish: 4:57 PM

In terms of the weather conditions, it seems the riders will escape the worst on Saturday. It will rain in Italy during the morning, but this is expected to clear up by the late morning. It could get quite chilly in the mountains, but that is something the riders are accustomed to at this time of the year. The wind will mainly be head-on during the final climb.

Well, who is going to dare attack for the stage victory on Saturday, after Jonas Vingegaard's masterclass on Friday? Visma | Lease a Bike perfectly delivered their leader for the San Giacomo climb, and if the team has a similar objective on Saturday, it will again be tough to even get close to the Danish race leader.

Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Juan Ayuso, Isaac del Toro (UAE-Team Emirates), Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers) and Vingegaard's teammate Cian Uijtdebroeks were the closest challengers, but even they had to concede one minute on San Giacomo. If Vingegaard is generous, he might be able to put one of these men in a promising position.

Riders like Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek), Enric Mas (Movistar) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) fell short by finishing in the third or fourth group, so it is uncertain what to expect from them. Tom Pidcock did a decent job, as did others like Wout Poels (Bahrain Victorious), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Lennard Kämna (BORA-hansgrohe).

The early breakaway might then have an even better chance. Ivan Ramiro Sosa (Movistar) climbed well but lost time on the descent and is therefore further down in the standings. Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PotNL) fell behind due to a crash, while Andreas Leknessund of Uno-X is always up for a long break. Moreover, many riders are between three and six minutes behind, but the big question is whether Visma | Lease a Bike will allow them any wiggle room. Otherwise, there are also opportunities for the likes of Poels, Carusos, Zanas and G. Martins of the cycling world.

Top favorite: Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Outsiders: Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe) and Juan Ayuso (UAE-Team Emirates)
Long shots: Thymen Arensman, Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers), Isaac del Toro (UAE-Team Emirates), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike), Ivan Ramiro Sosa (Movistar), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Andreas Leknessund (Uno-X)