Favorites stage 8 Tour de France 2024 | D-day. At least for a select group of riders

The riders start off in Semur-en-Auxois for a 183.4-kilometer stage that includes 2,400 meters of elevation gain. A substantial amount, so dismissing this as a ‘regular’ bunch sprint stage seems a bit exagerated. The chances of someone like Fabio Jakobsen coming out of this day fresh enough to make something happen at the finish line seem negligible.

Immediately from the start, the road goes slightly uphill for the first two kilometers, followed by a fast pace until we reach the first categorized climb of the day. If no early breakaway has formed by the time the men reach the Cote de Vitteaux (2.0 kilometers at 7.3 percent), it could be a very long day for those who dropped back early.

This is an ideal launching pad for some strong riders to break away, especially since the Cote de Villey-en-Auxois (2.4 kilometers at 5.5 percent) and Cote de Verrey-sous-Salmaise (2.9 kilometers at 6.0 percent) will follow quickly afterwards. After that, the elevation gain stops briefly, but with the intermediate sprint in Lamargelle, there is still something worthwhile on the line.

Assuming the battle for the breakaway is over by then, we can say that the riders can relatively calmly tackle the following climbs in a northern direction. Through the Haute-Marne, the course constantly winds up and down, with only the Cote de Santenoge (1.1 kilometers at 8.1 percent) and Cote de Gley-sur-Aujon (1.2 kilometers at 8.4 percent) being official climbs.

In the pre-final, the terrain flattens slightly as the peloton turns left at Bologne for the last 23 kilometers. There are still two significant hills, but with a final straight of nine kilometers, the finale favors the sprinters. The last kilometer goes slightly uphill, so riders need to save some energy in their legs.

Climbs
24.1 km: CÔTE DE VITTEAUX (2.0 km at 7.3%)
32.5 km: CÔTE DE VILLY-EN-AUXOIS (2.4 km at 5.5%)
38.8 km: CÔTE DE VERREY-SOUS-SALMAISE (2.9 km at 6.0%)
96.7 km: CÔTE DE SANTENOGE (1.1 km at 8.1%)
122.4 km: CÔTE GIEY-SUR-AUJON (1.2 km at 8.4%)

Times
Start: 1:20 PM
Finish: around 5:30 PM

It won’t get any warmer as we head further north in France. On Saturday, the temperature will be around 20 degrees Celsius, with a chance of rain in the afternoon and a strong west wind, adding some expected nervousness. The wind will be head-on in the finale.

We actually secretly love these kinds of stages because they can go many ways. A sprint with the entire peloton? Some will hope for it. Sprint with a reduced group? The most likely scenario. Breakaway? Why not. Late attack? Possible, but with headwinds and a slightly uphill finish, this would be challenging on Saturday.

However, certain teams will have most definitely marked this stage on their calendars. Like Intermarché-Wanty and its green jersey Biniam Girmay, who can help his team secure the maillot vert for a bit longer if he wins here. Arnaud De Lie of Lotto-Dstny is in the same boat: the Belgian champion has long marked this stage as being right up his sleeve in this Tour de France.

Normally, Mads Pedersen of Lidl-Trek would also be a contender with his strong lead-out, but the Dane crashed hard on Wednesday and still seems to be struggling. Last year, he won a similar finish in Limoges in stage eight, and we know he recovers well from crashes. However, it is not ideal.

Who beat Pedersen back then? Jasper Philipsen, who will certainly be focused on his sense of honor after Thursday’s stage, and Wout van Aert, the man who was hindered by Jasper in the last sprint. In different scenarios, we again see the Alpecin-Deceuninck and Visma | Lease a Bike men stepping up, knowing that they also have Mathieu van der Poel and Christophe Laporte in their respective ranks.

For pure sprinters like Dylan Groenewegen (Jayco AlUla), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Sam Bennett (Decathlon AG2R), Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar), Pascal Ackermann (Israel-Premier Tech) and Arnaud Démare (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), this stage is on the limit: more so for some than others. We can almost certainly rule out Mark Cavendish (Astana) and Fabio Jakobsen (dsm-firmenich PostNL).

Stronger sprinters like Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Luca Mozzato, Amaury Capiot (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) and Marijn van den Berg (EF) are probably really hoping for success in this stage, while riders like Alex Aranburu (Movistar), Magnus Cort (Uno-X) and Michael Matthews (Jayco AlUla) came to this Tour de France specifically for these types of stages. If it really comes down to a sprint between the stronger men, you can’t even exclude Tadej Pogacar, Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic.

Stage eight is a typical transition stage, so we should also consider the early breakaway. We note Alberto Bettiol (EF), Oier Lazkano (Movistar), Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious), French champion Paul Lapeira (Decathlon AG2R), Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and – why not? – Frank van den Broek (dsm-firmenich PostNL) as possible options.

Top favorites: Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Arnaud De Lie (Lotto-Dstny)
Outsiders: Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Mathieu van der Poel, Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Long shots: Dylan Groenewegen, Michael Matthews (Jayco AlUla), Marijn van den Berg (EF Education-EasyPost), Bryan Coquard (Cofidis), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious), Paul Lapeira (Decathlon AG2R), Alex Aranburu (Movistar) and Magnus Cort (Uno-X)