Favorites stage 9 Giro d'Italia 2024 | Breakaway opportunities under the smoke of Mount Vesuvius?!

The ninth stage of the Giro d'Italia kicks off in Avezzano and finishes in Naples, presenting the riders with a significant challenge. Avezzano is nestled in the Abruzzo region, whereas Naples is located way more south, on the coast. The organizers had to connect these two points, setting the stage at 214 kilometers.

However, the Giro organizers have been somewhat forgiving, as the race begins from an elevation of 725 meters and descends to sea level. The initial phase is predominantly downhill. The first minor challenge appears after sixty kilometers, but it’s nothing more severe than a gentle rise. This sets the stage perfectly for a strong breakaway to emerge.

After one hundred kilometers, the race hits sea level, where it will continue for a while along the Tyrrhenian coast. About 35 kilometers from Naples, the terrain begins to undulate, likely impacting the final stretch and earlier race dynamics. This typical transitional stage is usually too demanding for pure sprinters but too gentle for GC contenders, particularly because of the finale.

The Monte di Procida, a climb of 4.1 km at a 3.1% gradient, located 36 kilometers from the finish, is the first of several challenges, followed by a series of similar climbs. Moving towards Lake Lucrino, the route features steeper gradients, passing through Pozzuoli and Via Posillipo towards central Naples. The last climb, with its summit seven kilometers from the finish, stretches 3.2 kilometers at a 4.4% gradient.

In the last three kilometers, the route flattens out, with a sharp turn along the coast in the final kilometer. Back in 2022, the finish in Naples was quite a spectacle. Thomas De Gendt clinched that stage from a large breakaway, while Biniam Girmay and Mathieu van der Poel intensely competed throughout. Last year, Mads Pedersen triumphed in Naples on a flatter course.

Continue reading below the video.

Climbs
178.3 km: Monte di Procida (4.1 km at 3.1%)

Times
Start: 12:15 PM
Finish: around 5:29 PM

The weather in Italy is comfortable at 21 degrees Celsius, but there’s a headwind for most of the day. However, the race will benefit from some tailwind towards the end as the course winds along the coast.

Based on everything we've seen so far in this Giro, it seems this ninth stage will likely serve as a transitional stage. While the sprint teams might consider pushing their fast men forward, the risk may be too high in a 214-kilometer stage with tricky hills towards the end.

So, we expect a scenario similar to two years ago to be the most likely. A group of about fifteen to twenty strong breakaway riders, encompassing a mix of abilities. Yet, the punchier riders might have the best chance to shine due to their explosive power in the final hills around Naples.

Key contenders include Max Schachmann of BORA-hansgrohe and Jhonatan Narváez of INEOS Grenadiers, both showing excellent form in this Giro. Schachmann placed third in the stage Narváez won and also finished fifth in the time trial. Narváez held that same position one day earlier in the gravel stage won by Pelayo Sanchez, where master attacker Julian Alaphilippe also put his nose to the window.

Among the fast men, Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck) is likely the strongest contender, though Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) won’t easily let his closest rival for the points jersey have an easy ride. Caleb Ewan (Jayco AlUla), Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ) and Danny van Poppel (BORA-hansgrohe) are also capable climbers, while riders like Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike) could potentially match them on a good day.

Attackers will have their eye on this stage too. Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost) and Benjamin Thomas (Cofidis) have already made a successful move towards Lucca, putting many other riders on alert. Astana can play multiple cards with riders like Davide Ballerini, Simone Velasco, Cristian Scaroni and the fast Max Kanter, as well as the Arkéa - B&B Hotels team of Jenthe Biermans and Ewen Costiou.

Other riders we expect to see in the spotlight include Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) for sure, but also Jasper Stuyven (Lidl-Trek), Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R), Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Lewis Askey (Groupama-FDJ), Kevin Vermaerke (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Matteo Trentin (Tudor) and Alessandro de Marchi of the Australian-Saudi Jayco AlUla team.

Top favorites: Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe) and Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers)
Outsiders: Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers) and Michael Valgren (EF Education-EasyPost)
Long shots: Quinten Hermans (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek), Simone Velasco (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Danny van Poppel (BORA-hansgrohe), Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ), Benjamin Thomas (Cofidis), Jenthe Biermans (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) and Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R)