Is Evenepoel mentally ahead of Pogacar? "Evenepoel can literally win any one-day race"

It was a familiar scene: Tadej Pogacar alone at the front with 40 kilometers to go. But this time, the Slovenian didn’t have enough. “It was a small mistake,” said José De Cauwer afterward on Sporza, noting that Pogacar got lured into attacking too early by Julian Alaphilippe. “Pogacar was very eager. I think he would’ve waited a bit longer himself, but he ended up going too soon.”

His colleague Karl Vannieuwkerke was glad to see that the world champion can be brought back. “With all due respect to Pogacar, but for every cycling fan, this was a breath of fresh air.” De Cauwer agreed, though he was a bit more cautious. “It shouldn’t happen, but it’s happened so often that you end up becoming a fan of whoever manages to beat him. But of course, that’s not how it should be.”

Evenepoel showed his best side in the Amstel Gold Race. He may have been the strongest rider in the race. “A great little moment, we looked at each other, was when Evenepoel caught up and immediately continued pushing the pace. Pogacar was under pressure,” said Karl Vannieuwkerke. Yet the Olympic champion waited for the sprint, where he was beaten by Mattias Skjelmose and Pogacar. “He let himself get lured in by Pogacar, who hadn’t started his sprint yet. He saw a jersey move, and that’s a death sentence. You’re ready, you’re waiting, and then there’s that faint twitch... and you go.”

De Cauwer, however, noted that the world champion couldn’t capitalize on the Belgian’s mistake either. “Pogacar made the mistake himself by launching too early from Evenepoel’s slipstream. Maybe he saw Friday’s sprint and thought he had to start in time. But then the unthinkable happened.” Skjelmose came over the top at the last moment and claimed the biggest victory of his career.

The narrative for the rest of the Ardennes classics is set: it’s Pogacar versus Evenepoel and then the rest. Starting with La Flèche Wallonne. “Definitely. You might think: maybe Evenepoel is the one on the rise, which means he starts with the best odds,” said analysts. So, is the world champion afraid of his fast-approaching rival? “There’s respect, but no fear. And Pogacar will take a moment to reset, because he hasn’t faced this situation very often.”

Karl Vannieuwkerke added that UAE Team Emirates-XRG’s leader had just come off Paris-Roubaix. José De Cauwer agreed, and emphasized that the Slovenian has no reason to panic. “It’s not like he’s falling apart, right? And Evenepoel shouldn’t think everything was perfect either, he wasn’t there on the Keutenberg. There’s thinking to do, but this opens up possibilities.”

Marc Sergeant also praised Evenepoel. “The fact is: Remco Evenepoel did everything perfectly up until the final kilometer, but in the very last moments, he could’ve handled it differently,” said the former Lotto manager in his column for Het Nieuwsblad. “He let himself be pushed into taking the lead too easily.” In the sprint, the 25-year-old Vuelta winner should’ve played it smarter. “He should’ve slowed the pace, dropped back, and taken on an attitude of, ‘Alright, now you guys do the work.’ I bet Skjelmose would’ve taken the lead again. And maybe we’d have seen a completely different sprint. As it was, the Dane got to launch his ideal sprint.”

Still, it’s a promising sign for Belgian fans. Sergeant goes even further: “Years ago, I wrote in this column, and after this Amstel it’s clearer than ever, not only Pogacar, but Evenepoel too can literally win any one-day race. They have such big engines that they can crush any rival on any terrain. Even in Roubaix. Give Evenepoel a few more years and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does what Pogacar did there last week. That will be a bit of a shock for Pogacar too.”

Evenepoel’s power is especially impressive given that this was his first race back. “That bodes well for Liège–Bastogne–Liège,” says the 65-year-old Belgian. “Especially because I’m starting to wonder: after all these weeks, are we finally seeing a slight downward trend for Pogacar? I wouldn’t even be surprised if Pogacar ends up withdrawing from La Flèche Wallonne. Just to recover a bit from this race and go all-in for revenge in Liège.”