Pogacar vs. Evenepoel: How will their duel unfold at Liège? "Evenepoel can’t wait for the final climb"

When Evenepoel closed the gap to Pogacar in the Amstel Gold Race, Belgian fans eagerly looked forward to their next encounter at the Flèche Wallonne. But there, the Slovenian once again proved to be the unbeatable monster. Vanmarcke therefore also sees him as the top favorite for Sunday. "I know: Liège is a very different race. But while after the Amstel I still had Remco and Pogacar on the same level, now I have to give Pogacar a slight advantage," he explained to Het Nieuwsblad. "The fact that Remco couldn’t fight man-to-man on the Mur and finished further down the results sheet is tough mentally. I know that feeling. But Remco has a strong mind."

Naesen doesn’t want to put his compatriot one step below Pogacar just yet. "I still put them on the same level. Mainly because of Remco’s grinta, the fierceness he always races with. And his level is just super, super high. I also think back to his attacks on La Redoute when he won. That wasn’t attacking — that was sprinting. He won't simply drop Pogacar. But the same is true the other way around. I really can’t imagine anyone going up La Redoute even faster."

Dirk De Wolf, the 1992 Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner and former Lotto team manager, still considers Evenepoel the top favorite, despite his heavy defeat at the Flèche Wallonne. "After the Amstel, I briefly thought Pogacar was five percent less. But I’ve moved away from that: even two percent less doesn’t exist with him. But does that mean he’s going to win? Maybe others will disagree, but my five-star favorite is still the little guy."

Analyst Benji Naesen (no relation to Oliver) believes the Olympic champion mainly needs to rely on his race instincts — because on pure power alone, he won’t win. "What’s certain is this: Evenepoel can't wait for the final climb, the Roche-aux-Faucons. That’s where he’s vulnerable, because Pogacar could drop him with one explosive acceleration." Oliver Naesen agrees. "If we get a clash of the titans there, Remco will definitely have a tiny, tiny bit of fear. Then Pogi will once again have the advantage."

If it comes down to a sprint, who has the edge? In the Amstel Gold Race, Evenepoel was beaten — not only by winner Mattias Skjelmose but also by Pogacar, who had already ridden solo for 40 kilometers. Yet many believe the Belgian is, in principle, faster. "If you can beat someone like Wout van Aert in a sprint, like Remco did at the Flèche Wallonne, you can beat anyone," Naesen said. "But he can’t make a mistake like he did in the Amstel. Starting your sprint from 300 meters out? That’s way too far. I think he knows that by now. Even the best Marcel Kittel couldn’t do that."

Enough about the kings of the race. Are there any other contenders? Few, according to the experts. "If those two really accelerate, you must have already anticipated it if you want to still be there after La Redoute," said Naesen. "Who will be able and daring enough to do that?" De Wolf believes there’s one rider made for that role. "Ben Healy. A little monster, the kind of guy who never breaks and is built for a race like Liège-Bastogne-Liège. I bumped into him on Tuesday. Healy is in top shape."

As for Thibau Nys, the analysts aren't expecting much yet. The Lidl-Trek rider is in his first real Classics season and hasn’t yet closed the gap to the world’s top level. "I’m curious to see what he can do," said Naesen. "But I fear that on La Redoute, he won’t have an answer yet. Not yet. Give him a few more years. Liège is probably the toughest race on the calendar. For a newcomer, that’s normally too much." Vanmarcke adds: "I expect him to perform like he did at the Amstel. Top fifteen. That’s good and promising for the future, but it’s not extraordinary. Benoot also finished fifth in his first Tour of Flanders."