Pool tips Tour de France 2024 | The annual dilemma of the dark horses

Jonas Vingegaard, Tadej Pogacar, Mathieu van der Poel and Wout van Aert won’t feature in this list, but there are no less than 172 other riders starting the Tour de France. Who among them can or cannot be considered as 'dark horse' tips? Ladies and gentlemen, we present to you, the annual dilemma of the dark horses, which we’ve been grappling with once again this year.

For our first tip, we wanted to select a potential general classification contender, but in this incredibly competitive edition of the Tour de France, that was not straightforward. Bahrain Victorious has put forward the young Colombian Santiago Buitrago as their key man. This isn't surprising, as he showed exceptional climbing skills in the lead-up to the Tour de France.

Teammate Wout Poels mentioned during the Tour of Switzerland that Buitrago had made significant progress, and who are we to contradict him? Enthusiastic cycling fans will already know the 24-year-old South American well, as he has podiumed in Liège-Bastogne-Liège and won two stages in the Giro. Could a strong general classification and the white jersey in the Tour be the next step?

Next on our list is Soren Waerenskjold, another youngster. The Norwegian, with world titles in youth time trials, isn’t a complete unknown but has yet to prove himself at the WorldTour level. In the Giro d'Italia, Jonathan Milan was the sprint king and he shares similarities with Waerenskjold. Waerenskjold is known for producing immense power, which is unsurprising for a giant of 1.95 meters, weighing in at around ninety kilos. Additionally, he excels in time trials, as recently demonstrated in the Baloise Belgium Tour.

In his introductory video, Waerenskjold stated he sees opportunities in the flat stages of the first week but may have to share them with compatriot and teammate Alexander Kristoff. Kristoff also showed good form leading up to the Tour de France, but it’s possible both riders will get their chances as Uno-X is still competing for a WorldTour ticket in the mid-term and needs to perform.

Then we have a man who has been dreaming about Saturday, June 29, since the start in Florence was announced: Alberto Bettiol. The former Tour of Flanders winner is the only true Tuscan at the start and would love to swap his newly acquired tricolor (which he won in that same province) for the famed yellow jersey of the Tour de France.

According to teammate Marijn van den Berg, Bettiol is "focused like never before" and that has already resulted in victories in the Boucles de la Mayenne, the Tour of Switzerland and the Italian national championships. And definitely don’t overlook Bettiol’s climbing abilities for the rest of the Tour, as he can peak like no other.

Oscar Onley broke his collarbone three times in the past year (the last time being in the Amstel Gold Race this season) but now proudly stands at the start of his first Tour de France with dsm-firmenich PostNL. The Scot is part of a four-man mid-mountain block that the Dutch team is fielding, alongside Romain Bardet, Warren Barguil and Frank van den Broek.

Of this quartet, Onley is the most explosive, and he also handles the mountains well. He finished eighth in the overall classification of the Tour of Switzerland, an important preparatory race for the Tour. He still has something to prove in the grand tours after crashing out with a collarbone break on the second day of the Vuelta last year, despite winning the team time trial with his team.

Arkéa - B&B Hotels currently ranks nineteenth in the standings that serve as a basis to grant WorldTour licenses after 2025, forcing the team to invest. Financially, this is already happening for next year with the arrival of Alex Aranburu, among others. Sports-wise, the team might spread its chances in the upcoming Tour de France.

Arnaud Démare was named the top sprinter at Arkéa - B&B Hotels, together with 'wingman' Dan McLay, but it was stated that other fast men, in particular Luca Mozzato and Amaury Capiot, will also get their shot. Given Démare's recent form and performances — his last top-ten finish was in February — the cards could easily be reshuffled, favoring all-rounders like Capiot and Mozzato. Capiot has already demonstrated his capabilities in several well-attended races this year.

Speaking of all-rounders, put Oier Lazkano on a bike when he is in race form, and you can count on the Basque being up front. The Movistar man is moving to Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe next year but will first have a free role in his Tour debut. His recent form, finishing ninth in the Critérium du Dauphiné and second in the Spanish championship, indicates strong legs.

Lazkano always goes on the attack, making him dangerous in both transition and mountain stages, as evidenced by his top-ten finish in the Dauphiné. One potential problem: he perhaps races a bit too eagerly, possibly leaving him with less energy in the final stages. Things like that can really make a difference in the Tour de France.

Jayco AlUla is counting on Simon Yates as their general classification rider in the upcoming Tour de France, but we’re also keeping an eye on Chris Harper. The Aussie has made progress since his transfer from Jumbo-Visma to Jayco AlUla, leading to a sixth-place finish in the Tour of Catalonia this year.

In his last two races — the Tour of the Alps and the Critérium du Dauphiné — crashes hampered his performance, but his Strava logs leading up to the Tour de France show he’s on track. Harper might emerge in the second and third weeks of the Tour, when he is on his preferred terrain.

Riders who latch on and climb gradually via early escapes often don’t win popularity contests. Think of Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty) and Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), who have achieved top-ten finishes in the Tour using this strategy. For this Tour de France, we nominate Steff Cras (TotalEnergies) and Cristian Rodríguez (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) to try the same.

They can certainly latch on, often placing among the top fifteen to twenty in stage results. Rodríguez knows what he and his team need to do: score points, which for this excellent climber means attacking in the mountains to secure a place in the general classification. Last year, he finished thirteenth in the Vuelta and has been competitive in tough races like the Tours of Oman, Catalonia, Romandie and the Tirreno-Adriatico this season.

Many teams are opting not to take a sprinter to the Tour, creating opportunities for B- and C-level fast men. There aren’t many in this Tour de France, but Sandy Dujardin of TotalEnergies might be one. The 27-year-old rider is making his grand tour debut and has the big shoes of former TotalEnergies star Peter Sagan to fill.

Dujardin recently finished fifth in the French championship and has shown form, with respectable finishes in the Tour of Slovenia, Paris-Nice and the Antwerp Port Epic. He also managed to keep up fairly long in races like Dwars door Vlaanderen and Gent-Wevelgem, making him a sprinter with some depth.

The last spot on our list goes to this year's youngest participant, Johannes Kulset of Uno-X. His selection over Andreas Leknessund, Anders Skaarseth and Markus Hoelgaard might surprise outsiders, but within the Scandinavian team, there are high expectations for Kulset in the long term.

His preparation wasn’t perfect, as he suffered multiple fractures in his jaw and eye socket from a hard fall during the team’s altitude training. He recovered in time, but another setback occurred in the Tour of Slovenia: on the third stage, where he wanted to show himself, he was disqualified because of the super tuck position. To his dismay, but the jury was firm in its decision. As a result, he can't yet bring proof of concept to his first Tour de France, but certainly has the talent!