Preview: Milan-Sanremo 2025 | The only monument where the weather report matters more than the legs

Milan-Sanremo, a boring Monument? Too long? Not tough enough? Every year, countless opinions are thrown around about the first Monument of the season, but one thing is certain: on March 22, we’re in for another battle in a familiar finale. Yes, Milan-Sanremo is long, sometimes uneventful, and perhaps not the most grueling race—but that’s exactly why so many riders have a chance to win, making it thrilling right up to the Via Roma in Sanremo. IDLProCycling.com takes a closer look!

Milan-Sanremo is heading into its 116th edition. Yes, you read that right: 116! La Primavera is a Monument for a reason—it’s a staple on the cycling calendar. The seemingly endless route from the center of northern Italy to the coast of Sanremo is one to savor. Here, it’s not just about having the best legs; it’s about nutrition, hydration, conserving energy, positioning, and taking risks. You can lose Milan-Sanremo anywhere, but you can only win it with the perfect race.

That's why nearly every rider names this race as the hardest one to win. Think back to 2024, when everyone expected a showdown between Tadej Pogačar and Mathieu van der Poel. However, Pogačar’s team wasn’t in control on the Cipressa, allowing Van der Poel to neutralize him. The wind direction then played a crucial role on the Poggio, ultimately enabling Jasper Philipsen to become the first sprinter in years to win Milan-Sanremo.

In 2025, Pogačar and Van der Poel once again appear to be the riders to beat, but winning Milan-Sanremo takes more than just having the strongest legs. The weather plays a decisive role—will the wind be a headwind or a tailwind on the Poggio? And what about the sun? Will it prevail over the rain, or will unpredictable weather make things even tougher, forcing riders to adapt their clothing, nutrition, and energy management while battling through harsh conditions?

Practical information Milan-Sanremo 2025

• Saturday, March 22, 2024
• Pavia - Sanremo (289 km)
• Participants
• Classification: 1.UWT
  

In this article

• Most recent winners
• Course, weather and times
• Favorites
• TV coverage information

Most recent winners Milan-Sanremo

2024 Jasper Philipsen
2023 Mathieu van der Poel
2022 Matej Mohoric  
2021 Jasper Stuyven
2020 Wout van Aert
2019 Julian Alaphilippe
2018 Vincenzo Nibali
2017 Michal Kwiatkowski
2016 Arnaud Démare
2015 John Degenkolb
2014 Alexander Kristoff

Course, weather and times Milan-Sanremo 2025

Milan-Sanremo was once a race that flirted with the 300-kilometer mark, but in recent years, the organizers have been steadily moving away from that distance. A key reason is Pavia, which has established itself as the fixed starting point for this Monument, located south of Milan. While it shortens the total distance slightly, riders will still have to cover 289 kilometers on March 22. The route initially heads southwest over the Passo del Turchino, before reaching Voltri at the 153-kilometer mark, where the race follows the coastline westward.

The Passo del Turchino is officially 9.5 kilometers long with an average gradient of 5.1 percent. However, the road already starts to rise uncomfortably before the official climb, and the descent is steep and treacherous. After this climb, the riders will encounter two small hills in Arenzano and Varazze, before reaching the Capi around the 220-kilometer mark. The Capo Mele, Capo Cervo, and Capo Berta come in quick succession—short but demanding climbs that always cause an initial selection. This is where you can lose the race, but not yet win it.

After the Capi, you need to be at the front—or you’ll have to work hard to catch up. At the base of the Cipressa (5.6 km at 4.1%), you must be among the first riders, as the pace has been ramping up significantly here in recent years. After a fast descent, the race heads straight for the Poggio. This climb is 3.7 km at an average of 3.7%, but it has sections above 5.5%. It’s a gradual climb for the pros, meaning you really need a tailwind if you want to break away here. If there’s a headwind, sitting on a wheel will give you a huge advantage.

After reaching the top of the Poggio, there’s still a fast and treacherous descent into Sanremo. In 2024, the peloton came back together here, but we’ve also seen bold attacks—like those from Vincenzo Nibali and Matej Mohorič—resulting in solo victories. Once at the bottom, there’s hardly any time to set up a proper sprint. It’s man against man to the finish line. After such a grueling day, who will still have the legs for the best sprint?

Climbs
139.9 km: Passo del Turchino (9.5 km at 5.1%)
237.4 km: Capo Mele (2.0 km at 4.1%)
242.3 km: Capo Cervo (1.9 km at 2.6%)
250.1 km: Capo Berta (3.0 km at 4.4%)
267.3 km: Cipressa (5.6 km at 4.1%)
283.4 km: Poggio (3.7 km at 3.7%)

Weather

The conditions in Italy can change daily, so take this forecast with a grain of salt. For now, it looks like the riders will stay mostly dry on Saturday, with little wind in the finale. The chance of rain throughout the day is estimated at 20%.

Times
Start: 10:25 AM (local time) | 4:25 AM (EST)
Finish: 5:00 PM (local time) | 11:00 AM (EST)

Favorites Milan-Sanremo 2025

There are rarely outright top favorites for Milan-Sanremo—rather, a long list of strong contenders. Let’s start with Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen from Alpecin-Deceuninck, the last two winners on the honor roll. When both are in top form, they make an almost unbeatable duo, with Van der Poel’s attacking style and Philipsen’s sprint. If they have the same legs as last season, the team can head to the Via Roma with a lot of confidence.

Tadej Pogacar has been one of the biggest names for years, but the UAE Team Emirates-XRG leader has never finished higher than third. The Cipressa and Poggio are often not selective enough for him, and by the finish line, there are usually stronger sprinters still in contention. Pogacar will likely have to go solo, turning the race into an intense battle of seconds. His chances of winning Milan-Sanremo remain lower than in races where watts per kilogram are the decisive factor.

Read more below the photo.

Pogacar won Strade Bianche, but Milan-Sanremo remains trickier

Ironically, riders who combine a powerful punch with a fast sprint seem to have a more realistic shot at challenging Van der Poel and Philipsen. In Paris-Nice, Mads Pedersen put himself forward as a serious contender. The Lidl-Trek rider has Jonathan Milan as a faster teammate, but the key is still being able to follow Pogačar over the Poggio. Along those lines, Filippo Ganna is also a name to watch, thanks to his climbing performances in Tirreno-Adriatico and his finishing speed.

Tom Pidcock falls into the Pogačar category—an outstanding climber who, like Pogi, isn’t afraid to descend aggressively. But for him, a solo attack is likely the only viable strategy—so why not go for it Could hesitation in the chasing group open the door for an unexpected solo winner? If so, watch out for Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla), Kasper Asgreen and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost), and Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious). However, Mohorič recently battled illness, so he may not be at his best.

Read more below the photo.

Tom Pidcock

Who else might dare to contest a sprint? There are quite a few candidates—but only if a larger group makes it over the Poggio together. Michael Matthews finished second last year for Jayco-AlUla, while Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) has his sights set on victory. Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike) is another serious contender, and Uno-X has a strong finisher in Magnus Cort. Meanwhile, if Tadej Pogačar still has Jhonatan Narváez with him in the final, could the Ecuadorian be a surprise sprint contender?

Who are the favorites for Milan-Sanremo 2025, according to IDLProCycling.com?

Top favorites:Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Outsiders:Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Tom Pidcock (Q36.5), Jasper Philipsen (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Michael Matthews (Jayco-AlUla) and Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots: Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty), Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Jhonatan Narváez (UAE Team Emirates-XRG), Laurence Pithie (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla), Jonathan Milan (LidlTrek) and Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) and Matej Mohoric (Bahrain Victorious)

TV coverage Milan-Sanremo 2025

As in previous years, die-hard cycling fans can settle in for a full day of racing. Eurosport will stream the race live on its paid online platform HBO Max (ad-free) from 09:50 AM onwards. You can also watch on Eurosport 1 until 12:30, after which the women's finish will be shown. From 2:30 p.m., it switches back to the men. Sporza and the NOS will also be there, but starting at noon. 

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])     

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