Van der Poel is the strongest, but Visma and van Aert have better equipment, says Bruyneel: "It’s a huge advantage"

Paris-Roubaix can sometimes feel like a big lottery. Anyone can have bad luck along the way, and the slightest mistake can have the most significant consequences. Perhaps that is why there are so many favorites to write down for the Hell of the North. This year, there are a good number of top favorites who are all very evenly matched. Johan Bruyneel explains who is at the top of his list and why they have a chance.

At the very top is Mathieu van der Poel. Bruyneel sees the defending champion as the man to beat, which is what he expected during the Tour of Flanders. However, Tadej Pogacar beat the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider. 'I thought he would at least be able to stay with Pogacar,' the Belgian said in the OUTCOMES podcast. "But that was not the case, so I was wrong. But I don't think I will be wrong this week."

This has to do with several factors. First, the former sports director thinks van der Poel is quite annoyed after his loss in Belgium. But the overall picture of the Dutch rider is the most accurate. "I think his pride was hurt after Pogacar dropped him. He has a strong team, knows the race, and has won it twice. And when it comes to technique on the cobblestones, he is the best in the world."

It won't be easy, Bruyneel knows. The chaotic nature of Paris-Roubaix means that even the top favorites can see their chances vanish after one minor incident. "Of course, there is another element in Paris-Roubaix. No one can predict it, and no one can plan for it. There will be people with bad luck, crashes, flat tires, and material problems."

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Visma | Lease a Bike will have an advantage with the tire pressure system

Besides Van der Poel, Bruyneel mainly watches the Visma | Lease a Bike camp. After a mediocre spring for Wout van Aert, his compatriot saw a better van Aert during the Tour of Flanders. "Wout will be stronger on Sunday than last Sunday," Bruyneel thinks. "I think he is just reaching his peak and has gained a lot of self-confidence." The Belgian from Visma | Lease a Bike has been on the podium twice but has never managed to win Paris-Roubaix.

Van Aert's equipment will be a huge advantage. As Thijs Zonneveld predicted, his team's tire pressure system will help him enormously. "It's the same system Marianne Vos used in the World Championships gravel race, where she beat Lotte Kopecky. But they're going to use it on Sunday. Van Aert has trained with it, but they will also use it in the race. And it is a huge advantage. We must not forget that it is 260 kilometers and only 55 kilometers on the cobblestones. That means that there are 205 kilometers without cobblestones."

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Pogacar favorite? "When you see how he flies over the cobblestones..."

Bruyneel says Van der Poel and Van Aert are the two big favorites. But Tadej Pogacar is someone to keep an eye on, even though he will be starting for the first time in Compiègne. "We can no longer ignore Pogacar. He can do anything. It would be a miracle, but anything is possible in his first participation. He did ride Paris-Roubaix as a junior, but you can't compare the two."

Thanks to his two victories in the Tour of Flanders and his performance during the cobblestone stage of the 2022 Tour de France, Bruyneel knows that the world champion will be a force to be reckoned with. "He can win. When you see how he flies over the cobblestones... He is a bit of an underdog. If he wins, great. But if he doesn't win, who cares? That's an advantage. There are only a few guys he has to watch out for. They are Van der Poel, Van Aert, Pedersen and Ganna."

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Ganna's greatest asset: "Why not?"

I will also discuss Ganna. The Italian speed specialist is made for this race on paper, with his large body and absurd wattages. But he has another advantage, one that not many have. "He is in great shape, and let's not forget: he is extremely fast. He also has the most experience on the track of all of them. He will not be watched as closely as van der Poel and van Aert. Last week, he was already on the breakaway before the top riders started, so why not?"

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