July 1st: the day the battle for the yellow jersey in the Tour de France will erupt in Bilbao. No getting into it with easy flat stages or prologues, but immediately full throttle in the hills of the Basque Country! IDLProCyling.com sheds light on who will need to be sharp in the first few days.
Looking at the list of winners of the Tour de France in the past decade, you'll mainly see a lot of INEOS Grenadiers riders. The team, which seems to be facing a bit of a leadership crisis this year, has won the Tour seven times since 2012 with four different riders. Vincenzo Nibali was the odd one out in 2014.
The past three years we have seen a duel between Jumbo-Visma and Tadej Pogacar, which is also the general expectation for this year's edition. Two top favorites and behind them a whole group of outsiders, that's how the average cycling enthusiast will view the contenders for the general classification in the Tour this year. And so do we, as reflected in the final scores for the two top riders.
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Most recent winners of yellow jersey Tour de France
2022 Jonas Vingegaard
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Egan Bernal
2018 Geraint Thomas
2017 Chris Froome
2016 Chris Froome
2015 Chris Froome
2014 Vincenzo Nibali
2013 Chris Froome
Favorites general classification Tour de France 2023
To create this list, (former) editors of "IDLProCyling.com" were asked for their top ten list: "Who is most likely to win the Tour de France?" Each top ten entry was assigned points according to the following scale: 12 points for first place, 10 points for second place, and so on, with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point. The total number of points received by each rider was converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points. This percentage is indicated next to the respective riders, giving you a better understanding of the relative odds according to "IDLProCycling.com"!
10. Romain Bardet - Team DSM-Firmenich (20.5%)
Tenth place on our list is reserved for Romain Bardet, the leader of Team DSM. The Frenchman will start his tenth Tour de France, in which he has finished in the top ten six times so far and finished on the podium twice (2016 and 2017). You can't say he isn't very consistent.
Bardet is a rider who will never be caught fooling around, but he can steadily cycle his way to the podium. Last season, the slender climber seemed on track for a podium finish in both the Giro d'Italia and the Tour de France, but illness threw a spanner in the works on both occasions. He had to forfeit in the Giro, and in the Tour, he dropped to sixth place.
In the preparation race Tour de Suisse Bardet finished fifth, passing the litmus test for the Tour. "This year, the Tour passes near him, with the finish on the Puy de Dome", Pim Ligthart, the team director pointed out to this website. "He is highly motivated for that. We are just doing our thing and that's going very well."
9. Mattias Skjelmose - Lidl-Trek (21.3%)
With last year's Tour start in Copenhagen and Jonas Vingegaard's subsequent victory in the Tour de France, many Danish eyes will be on La Grande Boucle this season as well. However, the Danes would be wise not to focus solely on the Jumbo-Visma team leader but also pay attention to Mattias Skjelmose of Trek-Segafredo.
The versatile rider - Skjelmose excels in climbing, time trials and finishing - has been on the rise in recent years and has made a real breakthrough in 2023. He started the year with good results in smaller French races and effortlessly continued that trend in the challenging Ardennes triptych. With his impressive victory in the Tour de Suisse - and accompanying impressive appearance - he earned his place on this list.
Skjelmose has only competed in one Grand Tour so far, last year's Giro. He didn't really shine there, but that hasn't stopped Lidl-Trek from positioning him as a top contender for the general classification in the Tour de France.
8. Adam Yates - UAE-Team Emirates (22.7%)
The first of the British brothers on this list is Adam Yates, who has been riding for UAE-Team Emirates since this year. He was brought in as a dedicated domestique for Tadej Pogacar, but we can't help feeling that the team will want to position the climber himself high in the general classification as well.
Yates has indeed been regarded as a strong contender for the general classification since his breakthrough Tour in 2016 (finishing fourth), but for some reason, things never quite clicked for him after that. He has since been known as the king of one-week stage races but perhaps a change of scenery to UAE feels like a fresh start.
At least he no longer carries the pressure of being the outright team leader and can put other competing teams under pressure. In the recently concluded Critérium du Dauphiné, he was the closest challenger to Jonas Vingegaard, securing a second-place finish in the overall classification.
7. Enric Mas - Movistar (26.5%)
Well, Love him or hate him, but Enric Mas always brings a story home after three weeks at the Tour de France. The erratic classification rider of the Spanish Movistar team can climb like a true virtuoso, yet occasionally finds himself plunging into the icy depths of defeat.. However, based on sheer talent alone, he definitely deserves a spot on this list.
Mas struggled with anxiety of descending last year and had multiple crashes, resulting in a disastrous Tour de France. However, he made a strong comeback in the fall with excellent performances in the Vuelta and the Italian fall classics, which provided a good foundation for further growth in 2023.
This year, the man from Mallorca's performance is lacking so far, even though he finished in the top ten in races like the Basque Country and Tirreno-Adriatico. However, something crazy happened in the preparation race for the Tour, the Critérium du Dauphiné: Mas had stomach problems but didn't want to tell his team. "Enric had dysentery (severe diarrhea, ed.), but he didn't tell us earlier for fear of making excuses," said coach Leonardo Piepoli, who considered it a "plausible explanation" for Mas' fifteenth place in the final standings there.
6. Simon Yates - Jayco-AlUla (27.3%)
The second of the British-born twins from Bury is Simon Yates, who rides for Jayco-AlUla. If there's one rider who has put up a smokescreen leading up to the Tour de France, it's this Yates sibling. His last race day dates back to April 26 when he withdrew from the Tour de Romandie due to stomach problems.
Yates has consistently chosen the Giro over the Tour in recent years, as he doesn't enjoy all the attention and has never really been able to overperform in the Tour's overall classification. However, for the Australian-Saudi team, the Tour is also the most important race of the year, so Yates is being sent there as the leader alongside Dutch sprinter Dylan Groenewegen.
According to sources within the Australian team, Yates has been able to prepare for the Tour in peace at high altitude. A good Yates can beat anyone on his day, but unfortunately, in recent years, his performance has been erratic mostly. Nevertheless, he is a rider who has proven to have a very high limit on his performance potential.
5. Richard Carapaz - EF Education-EasyPost (33.3%)
Next is Richard Carapaz, the reigning Olympic champion. He made a high-profile move from INEOS Grenadiers to EF Education-EasyPost last winter, where he was presented as the rider who would win the Tour for Jonathan Vaughters' team.
However, in the first months of 2023, things appear to not be going smoothly for Carapaz. He had to undergo a tonsil operation and saw the first half of the season go down the drain. At the end of May, he returned from Ecuador to Europe to make an immediate impact in a tough French one-day race in the mountains. Richie seemed ready, and the Critérium du Dauphiné only was a confirmation.
Carapaz started the preparation race with great confidence, putting Jonas Vingegaard immediately under pressure in the first stage. However, the Dane countered easily, and from that moment on, Carapaz's performance went a bit downhill. In the mountainous final stage, he even finished among the last riders. Nevertheless, EF has full confidence in the always attacking climber and will support him to the maximum.
4. Ben O'Connor - AG2R Citroën (50.8%)
"June and July are the months that matter to me," AG2R Citroën leader Ben O'Connor said recently. As a general classification rider for a French team, he knows that there's really only one race that counts: the Tour de France and nothing else.
O'Connor experienced both sides of the coin in the past two years: in 2021, he was the rising star and finished fourth, including an impressive stage win, but last year, he was involved in multiple crashes, tore a gluteal muscle, and had to abandon the race with his tail between his legs.
Just like in 2022, O'Connor seems ready this year as well, finishing on the Dauphiné podium for the second consecutive year. His fifth place in the time trial was particularly notable, but let's be honest: time trials never lie.
3. Jai Hindley - BORA-hansgrohe (60.1%)
At the age of 27, the time has finally come: Jai Hindley will make his debut in the Tour de France. The Australian rider won the Giro in 2022 and has gradually emerged as one of the major protagonists for the Grand Tours. Now it's time for him to showcase his talent at the very highest level: the Tour.
However, at BORA-hansgrohe they are not naïve, they too know that it will be difficult against the two super talents mentioned below. That's why they have chosen to bring a sprinter as well, but they secretly hope that Hindley can outperform last year's team leader, Aleksandr Vlasov, who ultimately finished fifth.
This season, Hindley has shown steady development, particularly with strong performances in the Critérium du Dauphiné. That, combined with the knowledge that he excels in grand tours, has ensured that both bookmakers and we believe he deserves a place on the podium.
2. Tadej Pogacar - UAE-Team Emirates (90.9%)
Tadej Pogacar and Jonas Vingegaard: that is surely expected to be the ultimate duel of the upcoming Tour de France. Pogacar previously won the Tour de France twice, in 2020 and 2021. However, being defeated - on power - in the last edition has only motivated him further. In almost every interview since then, he emphasized his determination to come back and win this year.
It was clear in the early months of 2023 that the Slovenian prodigy meant business. He dominated almost every race he participated in, including beating his competitor Vingegaard in Paris-Nice. Further wins? He claimed victories in the Ruta del Sol, Ronde van Vlaanderen, Amstel Gold Race and Waalse Pijl. Unfortunately, a wrist fracture in Liège-Bastogne-Liège abruptly ended his spring season.
Although he didn't compete in any preparation races, we expect Pogacar to be in top form for the Tour. His teammate Sjoerd Bax - who trained with him on the Sierra Nevada - noticed no issues with the Slovenian rider. According to Pogacar himself, he has also recovered well from his injury two months ago.
1. Jonas Vingegaard - Jumbo-Visma (92.4%)
The top scaffold on our list for the Tour de France is reserved for Jonas Vingegaard, the stoic Danish rider from the Dutch Jumbo-Visma team. He may not be shouting it from the rooftops, but he certainly lets his riding do the talking. The Tour remains his absolute main goal this season.
In the only head-to-head duel he had with Pogacar this year, he lost. However, the Dutch team does not draw immediate conclusions from that, as Vingegaard has excelled in all other races he has competed in. O Gran Camino (three stage wins and overall victory), Basque Country (three stage wins and overall victory) and the Critérium du Dauphiné (two stage wins and overall victory) have showcased his incredible talent. Hello, Team Jumbo?
This year, Vingegaard won't have Primoz Roglic by his side, while Pogacar has Adam Yates as an ideal second man. Nevertheless, the Jumbo-Visma team won't lose any sleep over that, as they have riders like Wout van Aert and Wilco Kelderman who will be ready to execute on their plans.
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