Favorites general classification Tour de France 2024 | The key question is: Can Vingegaard thwart Pogacar's bid for a double?

2014: Vincenzo Nibali
2015: Chris Froome
2016: Chris Froome
2017: Chris Froome
2018: Geraint Thomas
2019: Egan Bernal
2020: Tadej Pogacar
2021: Tadej Pogacar
2022: Jonas Vingegaard
2023: Jonas Vingegaard

Tom Pidcock has high expectations for his Tour performance, but our editorial team just barely included him on the big list. The small Brit of INEOS Grenadiers has yet to prove himself as a general classification rider in a three-week race, which is the main argument for our prediction that 2024 won't bring a pot of gold in that regard. Additionally, Pidcock has teammate Carlos Rodriguez as a fellow and perhaps even rival. Last year, Rodriguez finished fifth and was clearly stronger and more consistent than the Olympic mountain bike champion.

However, Pidcock was in good shape in the Tour de Suisse. He ultimately finished sixth in the general classification and proved he could work for teammate Egan Bernal. Perhaps Pidcock also realizes that working for a slightly better leader could bring him his first top-ten finish in a grand tour. There is also a chance he desires a more free role and will face all other competitors alone. In that case, the chances of a podium finish for Pidcock are minimal, according to our editorial team!

Man, what a strong spring he had! Aleksandr Vlasov was good from the opening races in Mallorca all the way through to the Dauphiné. Gradually, he had to sacrifice himself more and more for leader Primoz Roglic, which will also be his role in the Tour de France. For this reason, the Russian is ranked near the bottom of this list. Vlasov will not be able to ride for his own chances in July. Nonetheless, our editorial team expects that the rider, who has previously finished in the top five, will also bring home a classification as a super-domestique in the mountains.

And that is, of course, a familiar scenario. We are likely to see strong teams like UAE Team Emirates and BORA-hansgrohe well-represented around their leaders in the toughest, mountainous sections of this Tour. They will not only serve as pillars of support for these riders but also maintain high positions themselves and act as plan B. This will be a welcome idea for Vlasov, knowing that a top ten in Nice is realistic. But a podium or the yellow jersey? That is almost out of the question this Tour.

Much has already been said and written about UAE Team Emirates. Their strength in depth – on paper and, thanks to their dominance in the Tour de Suisse, proven in practice – is impressive. Juan Ayuso is certainly part of this. The 21-year-old Spaniard has already achieved a podium in a grand tour, in the Vuelta of 2022. However, in this Tour, he is 'just' a helper for Tadej Pogacar. Besides the yellow aspirations of the team leader, we think Ayuso will also go far in the general classification.

He dropped out in the Dauphiné, but his qualities are undeniable. Ayuso has proven his services in high mountains, handles classic finishes well, and can time trial effectively. The remaining question, both for the public and possibly within UAE, is who will be Pogacar's last man in the mountains. That decision will also determine which of the three super-domestiques (Ayuso, Almeida and Yates) has the best chance of a podium finish. After Adam Yates' third place last year, that chance is realistic.

And yes, there we have our next UAE star. Joao Almeida has just recovered from his second place and stage wins in the Tour de Suisse, and the Portuguese rider is already set to take on a different role in the Tour. This pre-summer, Almeida seems to be blossoming: previously he was mostly hanging in there, but in Switzerland, he suddenly strung together victories. In virtually any other team, the time trialist would be the leader. Yet, Almeida is also willing to work for Pogacar in the Tour de France.

Given his top form last week, it makes sense that Almeida is ranked slightly higher than his teammate Ayuso. However, everything will be new for the Portuguese rider, as this is his first Tour de France. Apart from a third place in the 2023 Giro, Almeida has not achieved podium finishes in grand tours. This is likely why the IDLProCycling.com editors rank him just slightly lower than another Pogacar helper, whom we will encounter further down this list.

Within INEOS Grenadiers, the choice is vast. This might also be why the chance of a Tour victory is incredibly small for the team. The British team lacks a true leader, like Brad Wiggins, Chris Froome and the now-present Egan Bernal were in the past. However, Bernal is not back to his top level, and former winner Geraint Thomas will likely take on a supporting role. For whom? Probably Carlos Rodriguez.

Rodriguez was an unknown entity in the Tour last year. He kept up in the mountains for a long time, lost a lot of ground in the time trial, and finished fifth in Paris after a beautiful stage win in Morzine and an unfortunate fall in the penultimate stage. Given his stage win in the Dauphiné, the Spanish climber seems to have found the right spark at the right time to do better this year. But can he follow 'The Big Four' in the mountains when they are in top form? We don't think so. If Rodriguez stays healthy and fit, we expect him to finish just below the real top in the Tour again. And that would certainly be no disgrace for the 23-year-old captain of INEOS.

And here we have the third domestique! Adam Yates, the winner of the Tour de Suisse, is the most experienced Pogacar helper. The third place finisher from last year, when he stood on the podium in Paris alongside his teammate and overall winner Jonas Vingegaard. Yates has started to perform even better as a super-domestique since 2023. He no longer serves as the absolute leader in a grand tour. It's a role that fits him perfectly, without the pressure of having to deliver a specific end result. In this capacity, the Brit is also a dangerous outsider for the podium this year.

However, there is one difference from last year. Then, Pogacar and Vingegaard were far above the rest, while this year, Remco Evenepoel and Primoz Roglic are also participating. They are expected to challenge the two rivals or at least stay ahead of the rest of the subtop. They were not super in the Dauphiné. We need not doubt Yates himself, given his demonstrated form in the preparation race. He will work for Pogacar again, excel in that role, and have a good chance of a strong top ranking. Nonetheless, we rank him just below the four biggest general classification contenders on the start list.

Remco Evenepoel is next on the list. In the Dauphiné, the leader of Soudal Quick-Step showed that he is in reasonable shape, but not yet in top form. In the time trial, he blew everyone away, a promising sign for the two time trials in the Tour, where he can already gain a significant margin on many riders. However, his performance in the mountains raised a lot of question marks. At that point, there were still three weeks until the start of the Tour in Florence. The question is: does Evenepoel have enough climbing power to compete for the podium in the Tour?

One very positive element for Evenepoel in the Tour is the fact that he doesn't have a lot of pressure. In the early preparations for the Tour, expectations were lowered. An overall victory? Soudal Quick-Step is not considering that. And that means Evenepoel is starting a grand tour without a huge frenzy of expectations for the first time in his career. The 2022 Vuelta winner can win a grand tour, but he has also experienced many setbacks. In short, Evenepoel's pure qualities are excellent. His form and position relative to Pogacar and Vingegaard are still uncertain. IDLProCycling.com thinks Evenepoel has a good chance of making the final podium.

Primoz Roglic clearly has a lead over Evenepoel in terms of points awarded on this list. The Slovenian of BORA-hansgrohe is, like his Belgian rival, still somewhat of a question mark. Roglic won the Dauphiné and took home two convincing stage wins. The way he fought and scraped by on the last day to keep Matteo Jorgenson behind him was less impressive. Is it a matter of fine-tuning his form, or a sign that the three-time Vuelta winner simply has bad days and is therefore vulnerable?

Because, admittedly, there is often something going on with Roglic. His pure class and proven qualities as a climber and time trialist, and thus grand tour winner, are often overshadowed by bad luck, crashes or the fact that others are just a bit better. On the other hand: in last year's Vuelta, he was not necessarily worse than his then-teammate Vingegaard. Beating him and Pogacar will be difficult. Roglic has a strong team around him, with Jai Hindley and the aforementioned Vlasov as luxury domestiques. Will he stay consistent? Can he keep up in the mountains? Will he limit his losses in the time trials? Will he have one or two top days when the men higher up in this list are slightly less strong? Positive answers to these questions could make Roglic a favorite for the overall victory. Our editorial team ranks Roglic at a respectful distance from Vingegaard and Pogacar...

Let's move on to the biggest question mark on this list. Or not? After all, now that it has finally been confirmed that he will start in the Tour, Jonas Vingegaard will be competing for a third consecutive overall victory in the Tour de France with everything he's got. Our editorial team has quite some confidence in this. Vingegaard has been rehabilitating from his nasty injuries sustained in the Tour of the Basque Country for months now, and has done so in relative obscurity. The finishing touches have been made during high-altitude training. But, is that enough to defeat his eternal rival Pogacar? There are several signals that lead us to answer that question in the negative.

The team that Pogacar will field in the Tour somewhat resembles Jumbo-Visma in the 2023 Vuelta. So strong that the rest will need to be extremely good to make any impact. But assuming Vingegaard is strong enough, Visma | Lease a Bike won't panic quickly. The last two editions simply show that the Dane was better than Pogacar both in the mountains and the time trials. Another advantage: the last week is partly at altitude, and Vingegaard has time to grow in the Tour, while Pogacar, with the Giro in his legs, has a higher chance of losing some form. Getting through the first week will be the goal. If Vingegaard remains standing, we can prepare for another epic duel. Time will tell...

There he is, shining in that pink jersey. He would love to add a yellow jersey to his achievements of this year. Not only to return to the top of the Tour podium after three years. No, also to achieve the Giro-Tour double for the first time in 26 years. All signals are green for Tadej Pogacar, the number one on our list. The Slovenian has had a preparation without setbacks, has an incredible team by his side, and has his three biggest competitors on paper (Vingegaard, Evenepoel and Roglic) still struggling as we head towards the start in Florence.

What stands between the Slovenian and the Tour victory? The question is how much the weight of his Giro performance will matter. Pogacar chose to show himself a lot in that race. He won six stages. Were those unnecessary escapades in a race he had already won? Or do these breadcrumbs not bother him in the hunt for a Tour victory? IDLProCycling.com believes in the latter scenario. Everything is falling into place for Pogacar this year. If Vingegaard is not at his best – which is possible – and Roglic and Evenepoel cannot match the Giro winner's level, Pogi has the best chance of overall victory in Paris. We will already see him at the front in the first punchy stages. His team is stronger than ever, making it easier to defend a potential yellow jersey in the subsequent stages. UAE has done everything possible to help the super leader achieve the impossible. In short, Pogacar is our top favorite for the yellow jersey in Nice!