Favorites mountain classification Tour de France 2024 | Elite riders will make all Tour contenders sweat for the polka dot jersey

When predicting classification results in a grand tour — especially in the Tour de France — the mountain classification is often the most challenging to forecast. Will it go to a general classification contender, one of the many strong climbers, or an opportunistic rider who (sometimes unexpectedly) starts focusing on it? In this article, IDLProCycling.com presents an overview of the potential protagonists in the battle for the iconic polka dot jersey of La Grande Boucle!

Also check out these articles from IDLProCycling.com:
Preview of the Tour de France
Favorites general classification (yellow jersey)
Favorites points classification (green jersey)

In recent years, the mountain classification has seen a fierce contest between general classification riders and attackers who set this jersey as their main goal. The points that can be earned on third and fourth category climbs in transition stages pale in comparison to the 20 points available on hors catégorie climbs.

After Pogacar's dominance in 2020 and 2021, Tour organizer ASO decided to abolish double points on hors catégorie climbs. As is the case every year, the climbs are divided into five categories: fourth, third, second, first and hors catégorie. Points can be earned on each climb based on its category. Double points are no longer available, except for one exception: the so-called ‘roof of the Tour’.

Most recent winners of the Tour de France polka dot jersey

2023 Giulio Ciccone
2022 Jonas Vingegaard
2021 Tadej Pogacar
2020 Tadej Pogacar
2019 Romain Bardet
2018 Julian Alaphilippe
2017 Warren Barguil
2016 Rafal Majka
2015 Chris Froome
2014 Rafal Majka

Favorites mountain classification Tour de France 2024

To compile this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten in response to the question: "Who has the best chance to win the mountain classification in the Tour de France?" Each top ten was assigned points according to the following scale: 12 points for first place, 10 for second, and so on with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point. The total points for each rider were converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points, which is indicated for each rider. This gives a clearer picture of how IDLProCycling.com assesses their chances!

Sepp Kuss - Visma | Lease a Bike  (13.1%)

Visma | Lease a Bike had a rough patch in recent months, and Sepp Kuss barely escaped the bad luck, being pulled out of the Critérium du Dauphiné as a precaution. The usually strong climber might not have been fully fit.

Last year, Kuss, in a remarkable team effort, clinched the Vuelta. In 2024, he hasn't yet reached that form. Depending on what happens within Visma | Lease a Bike, he might focus on other goals, such as a stage win or collecting mountain points. A fit Kuss should be capable, but can a 95% Kuss do it?

Felix Gall - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale (13.1%)

"We want to repeat last year’s performance in the classification with Gall," said Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale team leader Vincent Lavenu regarding his squad’s ambitions. He was referring to Gall’s top performance in 2023 when the Austrian finished eighth overall and won the queen stage.

With Gall, the French WorldTour team can rely on a solid general classification rider who could also — consciously or unconsciously — get involved in the fight for the polka dots.

Remco Evenepoel - Soudal-Quick Step (17.9%)

Remco Evenepoel is of course a contender (or dark horse) for the yellow jersey (and also in the running for the white one!), but don’t discount the young Belgian for the mountain jersey. Once fully fit and sharp, he’s among the best climbers.

In last year’s Vuelta, Evenepoel showed that if his general classification plans fail, he can effortlessly switch to other objectives. In Spain, he added the mountain classification (and several stages) to his resume. Will we see a similar scenario in this Tour?

Romain Bardet - Team dsm-firmenich PostNL (28.6%)

Romain Bardet is embarking on his last three-week race in 'his' France and will want to show his very best one final time. The experienced climber of dsm-firmenich PostNL came out of the Giro d’Italia with mixed feelings (regarding general classification vs. stage-hunting ambitions) and will likely choose a different plan in the Tour.

It is expected that Bardet will focus on another stage win in the Tour, with the mountain jersey as a potential bonus. His internal drive for attacks certainly hasn’t diminished.

Derek Gee - Israel-Premier Tech (28.6%)

Here he is, the revelation of the 2023 Giro d’Italia and the recent Critérium du Dauphiné. Of course, we're talking about Derek Gee, who was known as an aggressive rider before the French stage race. In the Dauphiné, he proved to be in excellent form, even competing for the overall victory. Successfully, as the Canadian impressively finished third and made the final podium.

Israel-Premier Tech team leader Sep Vanmarcke recently told our website that the amiable North American is unlikely to engage in general classification battles but will carefully select his stages and opportunities. And anyone who does that doesn't automatically rule out a dream of the mountain classification...

Primoz Roglic - BORA-hansgrohe (34.5%)

Primoz Roglic hopes to finally secure his long-desired Tour de France victory this year, though given the field, it seems almost impossible. However, never say never with the Slovenian of BORA-hansgrohe, who, despite winning the Giro d’Italia and Vuelta a España, has never come close to winning the mountain classification.

The closest Roglic came in this side competition in his last ten grand tours was third place, yet he remains one of the top contenders for the polka dot jersey. With his strong finishing kick, he should be able to collect points on not-too-difficult summit finishes and accumulate points elsewhere. However, it is unlikely that the former Jumbo-Visma rider has made it a primary goal.

Wout Poels - Bahrain Victorious (40.5%)

Last year, Ciccone proved that an attacker can win the polka dot jersey, even when the general classification leaders are engaged in a fierce battle. Scoring points consistently and hoping to hold on towards the end — Poels knows how it’s done, as he was incredibly close in 2021, losing the dots to Pogacar on day eighteen.

The big question is how much freedom Poels will have to chase points. Bahrain Victorious aims to race aggressively, as they did last year when they won three stages with Poels, Pello Bilbao and Matej Mohoric. But with Santiago Buitrago, they also have a general classification contender who deserves support. Poels might go for a stage win on a given day, but multiple days hunting mountain points? That will depend on other factors.

Jonas Vingegaard - Visma | Lease a Bike (66.7%)

Sticking with general classification riders, even though there’s one we rank even higher on this list, Vingegaard must be taken seriously when it comes to the polka dots. The Danish Visma | Lease a Bike superstar faces several challenges: recovering from serious injuries, not being particularly explosive for stage wins against others, and Tadej Pogacar being better than ever.

Yet, his team is sending Vingegaard to the Tour again. If he can find top form, only Pogacar is likely to follow him on all those climbs. Whoever makes the difference on all these climbs in this Tour automatically gathers a lot of points. Realistic? Maybe not. Unlikely? Not really.

Giulio Ciccone - Lidl-Trek (73.8%)

The title defender was at the top of this list last year, so you should take our predictions seriously. Ciccone, however, is second this time. The Italian of Lidl-Trek impressed last year by winning the mountain classification but had to work extremely hard for three weeks with the help of his whole team.

Given the expectation that many strong general classification teams will make the race incredibly tough, riders like Ciccone will need to start accumulating points early on. And perhaps he wants to test himself for stage wins or a general classification result going up against the top riders this year. If that doesn't happen and the general classification teams show mercy, no other climber in the peloton is more suited for the polka dots.

Tadej Pogacar - UAE Team Emirates: 80/84 points (95.2%)

If you're ranked first for the yellow jersey in a Tour de France that doesn't end in Paris, you'll naturally rank high for the polka dot jersey too. In the two editions that Pogacar won (in 2020 and 2021), he claimed the yellow, white and polka dot jerseys. He's too old for the white jersey now, but the mountain jersey is very realistic.

This Tour won't include too many summit finishes, but expect UAE-Team Emirates to ride hard for three weeks with a dream team. Pogacar can then finish it off and collect an incredible number of mountain points. Good luck beating that if you're a simple attacker...