Favorites points classification Giro d'Italia 2024 | Battle for purple jersey promises to be spectacular!

The battle we might be at risk of losing in the general classification is typically more than compensated for by the battle for the purple jersey in the Giro d'Italia. The points classification in the Tour of Italy is wide open, boasting an exceptionally strong field of sprinters at the start, as well as the possibility of some formidable punchers (or a classification rider) still contending. IDLProCycling.com was tasked with the challenging assignment of listing the top ten favorites for this classification.

Also read on IDLProCycling.com:
- Preview of the Giro d'Italia 
- Favorites for the general classification (pink jersey)
- Favorites for the mountain classification (blue jersey)
- Favorites for the young rider classification (white jersey)
- Betting pool tips for the Giro d'Italia

Recent winners of the points classification in the Giro d'Italia

2023 - Jonathan Milan
2022 - Arnaud Démare
2021 - Peter Sagan
2020 - Arnaud Démare
2019 - Pascal Ackermann
2018 - Elia Viviani
2017 - Fernando Gaviria
2016 - Giacomo Nizzolo
2015 - Giacomo Nizzolo
2014 - Nacer Bouhanni

Jonathan Milan

Points scoring system for points classification Giro d'Italia 2024

Like in previous years, the organization of the Giro d'Italia has once again allocated points strategically. Where are the most points to be garnered and where are they less abundant? Naturally, the intermediate sprints also play a crucial role in this three-week stage race. It is in these sprints—especially in the more challenging stages—that other riders can seize points, supplementing those of the traditional bunch sprinters.

Flat stages - one star or two stars (stages 3, 4, 11, 13, 18 and 21)
Finish: 50, 35, 25, 18, 14, 12, 10, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Hill stages - three stars (stages 1, 2, 5, 6, 9, 10 and 12)
Finish: 25, 18, 12, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Mountain stages - four or five stars (stages 8, 15, 16, 17 and 20)
Finish: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Time trials (stages 7 and 14)
Finish: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Intermediate sprints (all stages except time trials)
First of the day: 12, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point

Favorites points classification Giro d'Italia 2024

To compile this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were polled for their top ten picks in response to the question, "Who is most likely to win the points classification at the Giro d'Italia?" Each top ten selection was assigned points according to the following ranking: 12 points for the first choice, 10 for the second, and so forth, with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 point respectively. The total points received by each rider were then converted into a percentage of the maximum possible points. This percentage is provided alongside each respective rider, offering a clearer insight into the odds according to IDLProCycling.com!

Phil Bauhaus/Caleb Ewan - BahrainVictorious/Jayco-AlUla: 16/120 points (13.3%)

As with the pink jersey, we begin the list with a tie. Caleb Ewan has amassed 16 out of the 120 points available, which is not unexpected. The Australian cyclist now rides for Team Jayco-AlUla, and their performance has been somewhat lackluster thus far. Ewan has only claimed a stage victory in the Tour of Oman, along with a criterium win in Australia. However, Ewan remains a formidable presence, particularly in major tours, boasting five stage wins in the Giro, five in the Tour de France, and one in the Vuelta. Don't be surprised if he manages to rally just in time to contend for both stage victories and the points classification.

Phil Bauhaus may not have the same pedigree as a top sprinter in stage races, but the German cyclist from Bahrain Victorious has been steadily improving in recent years. Last year, he surprised everyone with a stage win at the Tour Down Under, and he repeated this feat earlier this season at Tirreno-Adriatico. While he may not be the first name that comes to mind for the purple jersey, the Giro has a history of surprising outsiders.

Andrea Vendrame - Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale: 17/120 points (14.2%)

A regular presence at the Giro and thus a consistent figure on this list, Andrea Vendrame may not be a multiple stage winner, but the Italian cyclist from Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale possesses characteristics akin to Michael Matthews. Vendrame excels at navigating mountainous terrain among the sprinters. On a good day, he can contend for top positions in a mountain stage.

This is precisely why Vendrame emerges as an intriguing contender in this Giro, especially considering the numerous stages where the fastest sprinters may not be vying for stage victories. Vendrame has the potential to amass significant points, particularly given the strong performances by Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale this season, already boasting eleven team wins. Vendrame could easily contribute to that tally with another victory.

Fabio Jakobsen - Team dsm-firmenich PostNL: 24/120 points (20.0%)

Fabio Jakobsen isn't ranked too high, as the Dutch rider from DSM-Firmenich PostNL will require impeccable sprint preparation to secure victory. Additionally, Jakobsen will need to assert himself as a dominant force in the flat sprints to compensate for his absence in the challenging finishes and intermediate sprints on mountain stages.

Therefore, the odds may not be very favorable, but at DSM-Firmenich PostNL, they're hitting top form just at the right moment. Jakobsen clinched a stage win in the Tour of Turkey, and lead-out rider Tobias Lund Andresen secured three (!) wins. If the team gains momentum and Jakobsen finds his rhythm, he possesses the potential to win three or four flat sprints. In that case, the battle for the purple jersey could suddenly become interesting.

Kaden Groves - Alpecin-Deceuninck: 46/120 points (38.3%)

Winner of the points classification in the Vuelta a España, Kaden Groves absolutely must not be overlooked on this list. The 25-year-old Australian from Alpecin-Deceuninck, however, did not have an ideal preparation for the Giro. Since the Scheldeprijs, he hasn't participated in any races due to a knee injury, an irritation that the team assures he should be completely free of before the Giro.

Can one be in top form for the Giro with such a preparation? Perhaps. At Alpecin-Deceuninck, they once again proved in the spring that they could acclimate Mathieu van der Poel and Jasper Philipsen to racing without race rhythm. If Groves has the legs, he is a rider capable of navigating mountainous terrain and thus contending for stage victories in both flat sprints and challenging finishes. That points jersey in the Vuelta came for a reason.

Biniam Girmay - Intermarché-Wanty: 52/120 points (43.3%)

Biniam Girmay climbs like Vendrame but sprints much better. The Eritrean cyclist from Intermarché-Wanty essentially has all the tools to win the purple jersey. So why is he only in the sub-top of this list? Well, Girmay often struggles with positioning, which means he isn't always sprinting alongside the front runners. This positioning is crucial for contending for the points classification.

But who's to say Girmay can't make a significant leap in this Giro? When he won a stage at the Giro in 2022, he was consistently sprinting among the top five in every flat stage. However, the competition is fierce, and Girmay needs to be at his absolute best to vie for the purple jersey. To achieve that, he will also need to improve his positioning in challenging stages at times, but if he can do that, he could go a long way.

Tadej Pogacar - UAE-Team Emirates: 53/120 points (44.2%)

It's almost comical to see the big favorite for the overall victory in the Giro listed for the points classification. Yet, Tadej Pogacar belongs here because, on paper, the Slovenian could potentially win as many as ten stages. Not mass sprints, of course, as there are only five of those. However, when you consider all the punchy stages with tricky finishes and mountain stages, Pogacar could amass plenty of points for the purple jersey as if he were a glutton.

The big question, of course, is whether he will be that dominant. Potentially, yes, but if Pogacar is focused on the general classification, he will likely also have his sights set on the Tour de France in the summer. UAE-Team Emirates won't necessarily be targeting stage wins in every Giro stage either, will they? We say this with some hesitation, because if Pogacar sets his mind to it, he could potentially win both the pink and purple jerseys.

Laurence Pithie - Groupama-FDJ: 60/120 points (50.0%)

One of the sensations of the spring is making its way to the Giro, and we can hardly wait! Laurence Pithie is another typical rider for the points classification. However, on his debut in a major tour, can he sustain his performance for three weeks straight? We wouldn't be surprised, but we also understand if he chooses his days selectively at Groupama-FDJ.

Primarily, Pithie excels in the sprints. At the Tour Down Under, he effortlessly kept pace with some of the world's fastest riders. Moreover, he is an adept climber and can endure challenging finishes with ease. Facing competitors like Girmay, Vendrame, and others, we are incredibly curious to see how far Pithie can go.

Tim Merlier - Soudal-Quick Step: 62/120 points (52.5%)

The most successful sprinter of the first four months, but Tim Merlier isn't at the top of this list. The Belgian rider from Soudal-Quick Step clinched two stages in Oman, three stages in the UAE Tour, claimed victory in Nokere Koerse, and also triumphed in the Scheldeprijs. It's an impressive track record that no other sprinter will match in 2024.

With a strong sprint train, Merlier is undoubtedly the favorite for the flat sprints on paper. But can he deliver? The competition is fierce, and Merlier typically only sprints for the win. If he finds himself boxed in, he sometimes backs off, which isn't conducive to accumulating points in the classification. However, with Soudal-Quick Step lacking a clear leader for the general classification, Merlier has all the freedom he needs to pursue the purple jersey as a primary objective.

Olav Kooij - Visma | Lease a Bike: 92/120 points (76.7%)

With Wout van Aert absent, all eyes in the Giro are on Olav Kooij. The Dutch rider from Visma | Lease a Bike may not have accumulated as many victories as Merlier in 2024, but he secured victories in Almeria, once in the UAE Tour, and twice in Paris-Nice. His speed and form are evident, and Kooij has demonstrated his ability to handle hills and mountains.

The big question is: Can Kooij assert dominance? And what will his sprint train look like? Visma | Lease a Bike is fielding a team comprised mostly of free riders, with Wout van Aert no longer serving as a luxury lead-out. Additionally, Tim and Mick van Dijke, who frequently supported Kooij in recent years, are absent. Christophe Laporte serves as a luxurious replacement, and Kooij will have to make do with the support provided.

Jonathan Milan - Lidl-Trek: 110/120 points (91.7%)

The winner of 2023, and there are really few reasons why he couldn't do it again in 2024. Jonathan Milan switched from Bahrain Victorious to Lidl-Trek last winter, and he has not diminished since. He won a stage in the Tour of Valencia and even two in the Tirreno-Adriatico. In both races, he also secured the points classification.

Milan is multi-talented. He can climb well, his sprint has only improved at Lidl-Trek, and he has a decent train to support him. With Simone Consonni, Edward Theuns, and Jasper Stuyven, he has quite a lineup! Besides, Italians always ride just a bit harder in front of their own crowd. Two in a row for Johnny? We can see it happening!