Favorites points classification Tour de France 2024 | Which green jersey contenders will even make it to Nice?

The cycling spectacle known as the Tour de France is about to kick off again. The 2024 edition will go down in history as a special one because, due to the Olympic Games, it will not finish on the Champs-Elysées in Paris. The unofficial World Championship for sprinters will therefore not take place on the famous Parisian stretch, but what impact will this have on the battle for the green jersey? IDLProCycling.com will tell you everything you need to know.

For years, the green jersey in the Tour de France was virtually reserved for Peter Sagan, but the rock star from Slovakia is not participating this season, for the first time in a good while. In recent years, he also failed to make his mark, as the maillot vert has gone to Sam Bennett, Mark Cavendish, Wout van Aert and Jasper Philipsen since 2020.

Philipsen was the sprint king of the Tour last season and won the green jersey with a solid lead over second place Mads Pedersen. The Belgian of Alpecin-Deceuninck has again set his sights on the prize this season, but due to the changed format of this Tour de France, someone else might very well take it.

Also check out this article from IDLProCycling.com:

Preview of the Tour de France|
Favorites overall classification (yellow jersey)

Most recent winners green jersey Tour de France

2023 Jasper Philipsen
2022 Wout van Aert
2021 Mark Cavendish
2020 Sam Bennett
2019 Peter Sagan
2018 Peter Sagan
2017 Michael Matthews
2016 Peter Sagan
2015 Peter Sagan
2014 Peter Sagan

Favorites points classification Tour de France 2024

To compile this list, (former) editors of IDLProCycling.com were asked for their top ten in response to the question: "Who has the best chance of winning the Tour de France?" Each top ten rider was assigned points as follows: 12 points for first place, 10 for second, and so on with 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 point. For each rider, the total number of points received was converted into a percentage of the maximum number of points achievable. This percentage is indicated for each rider, giving you a better picture of the chances according to IDLProCycling.com!

Jonas Vingegaard - Visma | Lease a Bike: 9/60 points (15.0%)

When thinking of the green jersey, Jonas Vingegaard doesn't immediately come to mind. However, the Danish title defender deserves his spot on this list based on his results in the three Tours de France he has ridden. There's a rising trend in his final standings in the points classification: tenth (2021), seventh (2022) and fifth (2023).

Vingegaard may not be aiming for the green jersey, but if he manages to win a few mountain stages again, he could find himself high in the standings. Who knows, he might reach Nice as roughly fourth or third in the points classification.

Sam Bennett - Decathlon AG2R : 9/60 points (15.0%)

Sam Bennett is returning to the Tour de France after three years of absence. The Irish sprinter won the green jersey in 2020 on behalf of then Deceuninck-Quick Stepm but hasn't participated in the world's most prestigious cycling race since. Both Patrick Lefevere's team and BORA-hansgrohe excluded Bennett from the selection three times.

He then moved to Decathlon AG2R, where he seems to have found his old form again. In May, he won four stages and the overall classification in the Four Days of Dunkirk and also participated in the Critérium du Dauphiné. Can he continue that form into the race that brought him so much in 2020, but also caused so much misfortune?

Biniam Girmay - Intermarché-Wanty: 11/60 points (18.3%)

Some teams don't bring a sprinter to the Tour de France, while others bring two. Intermarché-Wanty belongs to the latter category and is still seeking its first stage win in the Tour de France. This season, the team will likely rely on Gerben Thijssen and Biniam Girmay to achieve that goal.

Thijssen is expected to be their man for the flat sprints, while Girmay can last longer in the mountains. This could allow the Eritrean rider to place himself in the green jersey competition in the Tour de France, where he had to pay his dues last season. With support from Mike Teunissen, Hugo Page and Laurenz Rex, he now has a strong team behind him.

Dylan Groenewegen - Jayco AlUla: 12/60 points (20.0%)

Dylan Groenewegen is preparing for his seventh Tour de France participation for Jayco AlUla. The fast Dutchman has so far won four stages, so the hunt for a fifth victory is on for the quick man in the Australian-Saudi team. His best points classification position in Paris has been seventh.

In this Tour de France, Groenewegen will have a sprint train consisting of Luka Mezgec, Elmar Reinders and Luke Durbridge, while Michael Matthews will also contribute. The Aussie, winner of the green jersey in 2017, is also given the freedom to aim for the intermediate stages.

Bryan Coquard - Cofidis: 22/60 points (36.7%)

If there has been one Frenchman who has been a stable factor in the points classification of the Tour de France in recent years, it's Bryan Coquard. Le Coq always participates in the intermediate sprints, securing his position, which has resulted in five top ten finishes in Paris. Last season, the Cofidis sprinter finished third.

Coquard achieved his first WorldTour victory in the Tour of Switzerland, proving he is in form, but the pure sprinters often outsmart and outpace him. One thing is certain: the Frenchman is a tough competitor who always fights hard.

Arnaud De Lie - Lotto-Dstny: 26/60 points (43.3%)

Lotto-Dstny is counting on Arnaud De Lie in the upcoming Tour de France, where he will make his debut in his first grand tour. The Belgian has been performing well in May and June, after being hindered by Lyme disease during the spring classics that were important for the team.

De Lie cannot be classified as a pure sprinter, but he will seize every opportunity to compete, whether it's for the win or to gain experience. He can handle hills well, which is often a useful trait in intermediate and final sprints.

Wout van Aert - Visma | Lease a Bike: 34/60 points (56.7%)

Normally, Wout van Aert wouldn't be participating in this Tour de France on behalf of Visma | Lease a Bike, but after his fall in Dwars door Vlaanderen, the circumstances ultimately led to the Belgian starting in Florence. Enter the "Law of Wout": wherever he competes, he's a contender.

In the case of the Tour de France, this means aiming for the green jersey, not the yellow. The Belgian has stated that he will primarily focus on supporting Jonas Vingegaard but might also aim for a stage win himself. Whether he will compete for the green jersey with an eye on the Olympic Games is uncertain. But you never know.

Tadej Pogacar - UAE-Team Emirates: 35/60 points (58.3%)

Someone who has won eleven stages in four Tours de France and six stages in his last grand tour, the Giro, must always be considered in this list. We're talking about Tadej Pogacar, of course. His track record for the green jersey? Eighth, eighth, third and fourth.

Keeping in mind the somewhat unusual finish in Nice — meaning few sprinters might even make it there — this could be the year Pogacar unintentionally competes for the green jersey. But the Slovenian won't lose sleep over it: for him and his team, the focus is on bringing the yellow jersey to Nice.

Mads Pedersen - Lidl-Trek: 54/60 points (90.0%)

Jonathan Milan won the points classification in this year's Giro d'Italia for Lidl-Trek, and now Mads Pedersen aims to do the same in the Tour de France. The Dane, who finished second in the green jersey competition last year and won the points classification in the 2022 Vuelta a España, could well achieve this.

With co-leader Tao Geoghegan Hart out of the Tour, all eyes at Lidl-Trek will be on the former world champion from Scandinavia. In the Critérium du Dauphiné, he demonstrated he can handle the pressure by impressively winning the only sprint stage.

Jasper Philipsen - Alpecin-Deceuninck: 56/60 points (93.3%)

The biggest favorite for the green jersey is Jasper Philipsen, who will once again receive full support from Alpecin-Deceuninck to pursue his goals (stage wins and the points classification). He can count on world champion Mathieu van der Poel, who played a crucial role last season.

With the numerous flat sprints, Philipsen has a good chance to take the maillot vert to Belgium, rewarding his team for their confidence: just before the Tour, he extended his contract until 2028.