Tour of the Alps 2025 stage 5 favorites | Arensman braces for brutal 12 percent showdown with Storer

If Arensman is to deliver the leader’s jersey safely home, he must survive a final 112.2-kilometer day with both start and finish in Lienz, Austria. It’s a short stage, but explosively intense with four climbs and the now-traditional descent onto a finish ramp that’s once again more challenging than ever. It’s a stage that never fails to bring the drama, so we’re ready to ride hard.

The action kicks off on Friday after 35 kilometers as we attack the Bannberg. This climb stretches 4.8 kilometers at a brutal 9.1 percent, and after a rapid descent, it’s followed by an uncategorized climb of 3.8 kilometers at a staggering 10.1 percent. From there, it’s an up-and-down battle back into the valley, finishing at the foot of a second round on Bannberg.

After dropping into Tristach, the riders hit one last intermediate sprint before the real fight kicks off. The final climb of the Tour of the Alps? The Stronach. It may only be 3.1 kilometers long, but it averages a nasty 12.6 percent and feels like it goes straight uphill into the sky. This is where the GC fireworks are set to explode. One last sting in the tail. It's steep, brutal, and built for the bold.

Times
Start: 12:05 p.m.
Finish: around 3:15 p.m.

The peloton gets a bit of a break with a late rollout at 12:05 PM local time on Friday and they’ll need it. Rain is expected to soak Lienz through the morning, hitting both the start and finish area. Conditions should clear by race time, but the roads will likely stay slick, especially on the descents. Temperatures will hover around 15°C (59°F), with heavy cloud cover sticking around all afternoon. It’s shaping up to be a classic Alpine spring stage, wet lines, sharp corners, and zero margin for error. Riders better come locked in.

Heading into Friday, it’s essentially a two-man battle for the overall. Michael Storer will need to claw back 11 seconds on Thymen Arensman to take the win. The Tudor rider looks sharp and has a stronger kick on paper, especially after surviving Thursday’s brutal queen stage. Arensman, now in the leader’s jersey, will need to ride smart, hold his ground, and maybe even spring a surprise if the legs bounce back.

If the GC contenders start marking each other too closely, a few others could slip the leash. Derek Gee, now third overall with Israel Premier Tech, is over two minutes down and could get some breathing room. The same goes for Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), and Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), all sitting around the three-minute mark. Don’t be surprised if one of them tries to light it up and steal the stage from the shadows.

With the GC podium likely out of reach for Picnic PostNL, expect them to throw everything they’ve got behind Romain Bardet and the ever-improving Max Poole. Jai Hindley will also be out to salvage his race on the final day. A simple top ten in the Tour of the Alps won’t satisfy the Australian from Red Bull BORA hansgrohe. Meanwhile, young talents like Jefferson Cepeda (EF Education EasyPost), Davide Piganzoli (Polti Kometa), and Matthew Riccitello (Israel Premier Tech) are hunting for stage honors and a top ten overall.

There’s another scenario on the table. INEOS Grenadiers would benefit if the breakaway stays clear and scoops up the bonus seconds. If Tudor either agrees or simply doesn’t have the numbers to chase, that opens the door for attackers who have been looking sharp all week. Think of Jayco AlUla’s Eddie Dunbar, Koen Bouwman, and Paul Double, stage 3 winner Marco Frigo (Israel Premier Tech), and Decathlon AG2R’s Paul Seixas and Nicolas Prodhomme. All of them have the freedom and the form to shake things up.

Top favorites: Michael Storer (Tudor) and Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale)

Outsiders: Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain Victorious), Romain Bardet (Picnic PostNL), Jai Hindley (Red Bull BORA hansgrohe), Paul Double (Jayco AlUla)

Long shots: Paul Seixas (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Davide Piganzoli (Polti Kometa), Jefferson Cepeda (EF Education EasyPost), Matthew Riccitello, Marco Frigo (Israel Premier Tech), Max Poole (Picnic PostNL), Eddie Dunbar and Koen Bouwman (Jayco AlUla)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])