Favorites stage 10 Giro d'Italia 2024 | Breakaway, Pogi-group or the Colombian on home turf?

Sunday saw the riders finish in Naples, where they will also stay during the rest day. Tuesday's start is in Pompeii, another city directly linked to the Vesuvius volcano. Buried under volcanic ash, it's a historical site and major tourist attraction. Pompeii is on the World Heritage list and is visited by millions of people each year.

From the starting point, we head north, where the Giro d'Italia originates. Although there are no immediate obstacles post-rest day, warming up might prove essential as there could be a fierce battle for the early break in the first fifty kilometers, as those spots are highly coveted.

Then, the first elevation gains appear on the route, with two uncategorized climbs. The first is 5.6 kilometers at 3.4 percent, while the second, via Montesarchio, is 3.1 kilometers at 8.3 percent. If an early break hasn't formed by then, this could be the perfect moment for some climbers to use the uphill section as a launchpad.

Following a descent, the first categorized climb of the day awaits: the Camposauro, a 6.2-kilometer ascent averaging 7.5 percent. This is followed by a long descent to Solopaca, where a short passage through the Titerno valley awaits. The next stop is the foot of the Cusano Vitro, reached via the climb of Guardia Sanframondi, 4.8 kilometers at 6.5 percent, and approximately 25 flat kilometers.

The day's final climb, where we reach nearly 1400 meters, spans 18 kilometers at an average of 5.6 percent. However, it can be divided into several sections: the first stretch is six kilometers at 6.1 percent, followed by a five-kilometer phase at just 2.6 percent.

The real challenge, however, will be towards the end of the stage: the last 6.4 kilometers ascend at 7.2 percent, with the final hundreds of meters at 8.1 percent. So, it's crucial to conserve energy for the grueling final kilometer towards Bocca del Selva!

Climbs
82.5 km: Camposauro (6.2 km at 7.5%)
142.0 km: Cusano Mutri (18.0 km at 5.6%)

Times
Start: 1:05 PM
Finish: around 5:15 PM

The riders can't complain about the weather conditions. At the start of the stage, it's 23 degrees Celsius, with the riders setting off with a tailwind towards Cusano Mutri.

Like nearly every mountain stage, the big question beforehand is: is this an opportunity for the early break, or are the GC contenders interested in victory? In this Giro d'Italia, we can narrow it down to one GC man: Tadej Pogacar, who has already claimed stage victories at Oropa and Prati di Tivo. Tuesday's stage also appears relatively easy to control for the team, as it's not a long stage and the initial part is flat.

A major difference from the previous two mountain stages is that the gaps are now larger. Heading to Prati di Tivo, UAE-Team Emirates kept riders like Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Michael Storer (Tudor) close, which impacted the other riders in that early break. By now, the GC has firmed up a bit, giving riders more freedom.

Whether other top ten contenders want a Bardet to come back is questionable. But for excellent climbers like Juanpe López (Lidl-Trek), Georg Steinhauser, Esteban Chaves (EF Education-EasyPost), Simon Geschke (Cofidis), Alex Baudin, Aurélien and Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R) and Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike), this is an opportunity to gain time before the final climb.

Classic types like Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers) and Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe) should also be suited for this stage. They have the time-trialing skills to pace a final climb and the stamina to last until the end, as does someone like Luke Plapp of Jayco AlUla. Filippo Zana and Alessandro de Marchi could also try something for that team.

The Pogacar factor makes it difficult for other GC contenders to win. Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike), Geraint Thomas and Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers) are all too close to try something through a breakaway.

Perhaps Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Einer Rubio (Movistar) see an opportunity, with the latter particularly keen. Rubio considers Italy his second home and lives in this region part of the time, so he knows the roads around Benevento intimately. It's a great stage for him to aim for a stage win, although he's still relatively close in the standings.

Finally, potential breakaway contenders include Pelayo Sanchez, Nairo Quintana (Movistar), Damiano Caruso (Bahrain), Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal Quick-Step), Cristian Scaroni (Astana), Nick Schultz (Israel) and the top talents Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa) and Giulio Pellizzari (VF Group-Bardiani) could also be in the mix for the breakaway.

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Luke Plapp (Jayco AlUla)
Outsiders: Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Simon Geschke (Cofidis), Einer Rubio (Movistar) and Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R)
Long shots: Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma | Lease a Bike), Juanpe Lopez (Lidl-Trek), Magnus Sheffield (INEOS Grenadiers), Georg Steinhauser (EF Ecuation-EasyPost), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Mauri Vansevenant (Soudal Quick-Step), Attila Valter (Visma | Lease a Bike), Max Schachmann (BORA-hansgrohe) and Aurélien Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R)