Favorites stage 12 Vuelta a Espana 2024 | Short, but certainly powerful!

The riders will start at the thermal baths of Ourense, located in Galicia. It is a relatively short stage, only 137 kilometers. For this reason, the riders will also take off a bit later than usual, at 14:10, which is a nice change in a race as big and long as this Vuelta.

From the start, the road immediately goes uphill for several kilometers at around four percent, where we will undoubtedly see the first attacks of the day. On paper, this is another day that suits the brave riders, as there are no insurmountable climbs to tackle.

This is true for most of the day: only the final climb, the Montaña de Manzaneda, is categorized by the organization. However, this does not mean we won't be cycling uphill, as the entire day goes up and down through the rugged terrain of northwestern Spain.

Ultimately, the Montaña de Manzaneda will prove crucial, with a summit finish on a climb of 15.4 kilometers at an average gradient of 4.7 percent. If we look more closely at the slope, we see that it's an irregular climb. The real sting is in the tail, with the penultimate kilometer at 8.1 percent and a peak of up to twelve percent.

Climbs
137.4 km: Montana de Manzaneda (15.4 km at 4.7%)

Times
Start: 2:10 PM locally / 8:10 AM EST
Finish: 5:22 PM locally / 11:22 AM EST

It won't be as hot as at the start of the race in southern Spain, but even on Thursday, the temperature will rise above 30 degrees Celsius. The wind is mostly slightly against the riders, but on the final climb, there will be a tailwind.

It's a short stage, but with a finish like this one, this stage could be one for an early breakaway. Because it's only 138 kilometers long, teams and riders must consider that a long battle for the day's breakaway could favor the general classification contenders. If it's not too long until the base of the final climb, a team might decide to take control.

In our opinion, the most likely scenario leans slightly more towards an early breakaway, where, in addition to the climbers, we should also watch out for riders with a strong engine and explosiveness at the end. These riders often come to the fore on such climbs. Think of Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), but also Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers) and Mauro Schmid (Jayco AlUla).

Regarding the pure climbers, we look to a powerhouse like Jay Vine of UAE-Team Emirates, but also other guys in good form such as Harold Tejada (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma), Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Matthew Riccitello and Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech). Brandon McNulty (UAE) has also shown improvement in recent days, as has stage winner Eddie Dunbar of Jayco-AlUla.

Looking at the general classification riders, Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) could really stand out on a course like this. The Slovenian in German service usually has the strongest uphill sprint, although David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) can also be dangerous. This is also true for Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost).

For less explosive types like Enric Mas (Movistar), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers) and leader Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), this stage will be mainly about limiting their losses.

Top favorites: Harold Tejada (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Outsiders: Jay Vine (UAE-Team Emirates), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Enric Mas (Movistar) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
Long shots: Pablo Castrillo (Equipo Kern Pharma), Jhonatan Narváez (INEOS Grenadiers), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), David Gaudu Groupama-FDJ), Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Adam Yates, Brandon McNulty (UAE-Team Emirates) and Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek)