Favorites stage 13 Vuelta a España 2024 | A prime opportunity for Roglic and other GC contenders to gain minutes

As mentioned, the Vuelta didn’t feature many such steep climbs in the first twelve days. In past years, we saw riders zigzagging on the Angliru or an unpaved sheep path, but we haven’t seen much of that so far. That’s different on day thirteen, where we finish at the top of the Puerto de Ancares. The last time we took on this climb was in 2014, when Alberto Contador won, while in 2012, Joaquim Rodriguez was the best. In short: the general classification riders will need to come out of their shells here.

Before we start climbing walls, the riders still have to cover 168 kilometers, including three categorized climbs. The Alto Campo del Arbre (5.0 km at 5.8%), Alto o Portel (7.7 km at 5.4%), and Puerto de Lumeras (6.6 km at 6.0%) are good warm-ups for the finale, given their average gradients. Breakaway riders will also need to build up a lead here, because on such a steep final climb, time can slip away quickly.

If we take a closer look at the Puerto de Ancares, we can better understand why the average gradient of the climb is 'only' 9.0 percent over 7.5 kilometers. The first two kilometers are relatively mild, with averages of 3.2 and 2.5 percent. After that, the chaos begins, with the next kilometer at an average of 7.9 percent, followed by more than four kilometers where the gradient never falls below 10 percent. The maximum gradient is 15 percent.

Times
Start: 12:55 PM
Finish: 5:17 PM

When the riders start at 12:55 PM on Friday, the temperature in Lugo will be around 20 degrees Celsius. Perfect weather, although it will rise to 30 degrees during the race. As we ascend into the final part of the stage, temperatures will become more comfortable again, reaching just above 20 degrees. The wind will not play a significant role throughout the day, with a light breeze from the northeast at a speed of two on the Beaufort scale.

This stage should be one for the general classification contenders, whether they like it or not. And they will want it, because Ben O'Connor, as the leader, still holds a substantial lead in the red jersey. His closest rivals are Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Enric Mas (Movistar), both of whom perform much better when the road goes uphill. They should be able to make a move on Friday. We also include Mikel Landa (Soudal-Quick Step), although the Spaniard has been less visible than Roglic and Mas. ut that's how Landa often does, meanwhile he always finishes among the best.

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates) have been a bit more volatile, although both are usually among the top contenders. However, they have already lost time on several occasions in this Vuelta. How strong are their legs in Stage 13? If they’re in good shape, watch out! The same goes for Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), and Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), who all seem to be getting stronger as this Vuelta progresses.

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Then we have a whole bunch of climbers who don’t seem to be in absolute top form but could still make a surprise move in two ways: either on a perfect day from the favorites' group or possibly from a breakaway. This is how Yates has managed to climb back up the GC in this race. Florian Lipowitz, as Roglic's teammate and currently in seventh place overall, might have too small a gap on O'Connor, and Aleksandr Vlasov might have to act as a super-domestique instead again.

Riders like Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), George Bennett (Israel-Premier Tech), Pavel Sivakov (UAE), Cristián Rodriguez (Arkéa), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla), Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious), and Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana) are all further back in the GC or perhaps considered non-threatening. They are also riders who could stay ahead from a breakaway. And what if Decathlon-AG2R La Mondiale sends Felix Gall, currently in ninth place, up the road, leaving others to chase?

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Are there any other riders who could make a move? It’s difficult to say because the final climb is really tough for climbers who haven’t been in good form in this Vuelta. You might think of Harold Tejada (Astana), Michael Woods (Israel), Nairo Quintana, Einer Rubio (Movistar), or Louis Meintjes (Intermarché) if the breakaway gets a significant lead. The wildcard of the day is Matthew Riccitello, who has already lost a lot of time for Israel-Premier Tech, but always performs well on such steep climbs.

Top favorite: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Enric Mas (Movistar)   
Outsiders: Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Mikel Landa (Soudal-Quick Step), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Florian Lipowitz (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots: Ben O'Connor, Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), George Bennett (Israel-Premier Tech), Pavel Sivakov (UAE), Cristián Rodriguez (Arkéa), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), Eddie Dunbar (Jayco-AlUla), Jack Haig (Bahrain Victorious), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana) and Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech)