Favorites stage 15 Giro d'Italia 2024 | Pink Pogacar faces Mortirolo and Livigno over Pentecost!

There is no doubt about it: this is the toughest stage of the Giro d'Italia. In total, the riders must conquer a dizzying 5700 meters of elevation over the course of 220 kilometers, racing from Manerba del Garda to Livigno. A stage like that also means the guys will have to get up early and make sure to be properly fueled. The race starts at 10:40 AM, making for an early breakfast.

We start around Lake Garda, but immediately head towards the Alps. From the start, the road climbs gently, and after thirty kilometers, we reach the first climb of the day: the climb from Lodrino (7.3 km at 4.5%) is categorized as third category, but a short descent is followed immediately by the first major climb.

The Colle di San Zeno is 13.9 kilometers long with an average gradient of 6.6 percent, making it a serious point of interest for the climbers. It is likely that we will see some moves from men further back in the standings or aiming for the stage win, while so-called satellite riders may also play a role.

After this climb, there is a long stretch through the Camonica valley, where the peloton will cover another fifty kilometers as they head towards the next serious obstacle: the Mortirolo, a climb well-known to all cycling fans. We are not climbing it from the most fearsome side, but still: 12.8 kilometers at 7.5 percent average will definitely have a serious impact on the legs.

Even at the top of the Mortirolo, we still face nearly seventy kilometers of cycling, the first part being the steep descent from the climb. After that, the road climbs steadily towards the finish in Livigno, which the organizers have divided into two categorized climbs.

The fairly regular Passo di Foscagno is fifteen kilometers long at an average of 6.3 percent, followed by a short descent that will serve as a launch pad for the final stretch towards Livigno. In the final kilometer, there are multiple sections that will approach twenty percent gradient, which can almost be called barbaric after everything the riders have already endured.

Climbs
37.7 km: Lodrino (7.3 km at 4.5%)
64.7 km: Colle di San Zeno (13.9 km at 6.6%)
155.4 km: Passo del Mortirolo (12.8 km at 7.5%)
213.3 km: Passo di Foscagno (15.0 km at 6.3%)
222.0 km: Livigno (4.7 km at 7.3%)

Times
Start: 10:40 AM
Finish: around 4:10 PM

Initially, everyone was concerned about bad weather conditions in and around Livigno, but as the day approaches, this concern has somewhat abated. When we start by the shores of Lake Garda, the temperature will be around 20 degrees Celsius, while the temperature at the finish will drop to around 13 degrees Celsius under a sunny sky.

Tadej Pogacar is a man with serious knowledge of the history books, keen on stage victories and familiar with the roads around Livigno. He seems quite likely to set his sights on this grueling mountain stage. The Slovenian and his team will want to pull out all the stops on Sunday to lock down the Giro, before a well-deserved rest day on Monday.

Behind him, the battle for the podium will flare up, with Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe) and Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers) as the main contenders. All these men are excellent climbers, but Martínez, being Colombian, may have just a bit of an advantage at altitude.

Peering further ahead, this stage could also play a critical role in shaping the top ten standings. Renowned for their prowess in the challenging third week stages are seasoned competitors like Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Rafal Majka (UAE-Team Emirates), Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step) and Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers). Meanwhile, the potential of some other riders remains relatively less known.

Well-positioned in the standings, Einer Rubio (Movistar), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Michael Storer (Tudor) could see their fortunes change dramatically in case of a poor performance. Similarly, young contenders Alex Baudin (Decathlon AG2R) and local favorite Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa) maintain rankings within reach of the top fifteen, along with Domenico Pozzovivo of VF Group Bardiani CSF-Faizané.

As for the early breakaway, that will be a challenge during such a tough stage, but Nairo Quintana (Movistar) might just excel. In addition to him, Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R) proved he's among the elite climbers in this Giro the day following the rest day.

Top favorite: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates)
Outsiders: Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious), Daniel Felipe Martínez (BORA-hansgrohe) and Geraint Thomas (INEOS Grenadiers)
Long shots: Jan Hirt (Soudal Quick-Step), Thymen Arensman (INEOS Grenadiers), Nairo Quintana, Einer Rubio (Movistar), Lorenzo Fortunato (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Michael Storer (Tudor), Rafal Majka (UAE-Team Emirates), Valentin Paret-Peintre (Decathlon AG2R), Domenico Pozzovivo (VF Group-Bardiani CSF - Faizané) and Davide Piganzoli (Polti-Kometa)