Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024 | If one goes, the other must and will have to follow Cycling
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Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024 | If one goes, the other must and will have to follow

Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024 | If one goes, the other must and will have to follow

A third week of a grand tour without a real opportunity for attackers is not a third week. On paper, this seventeenth stage towards Supergévoluy is a great opportunity for riders who still have something left in their legs and heads, but ultimately the peloton will decide. IDLProCycling.com outlines the scenarios!

Route stage 17 Tour de France 2024

Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024 | If one goes, the other must and will have to follow

The riders start in Saint-Paul-Trois-Chateaux, flagged off for a 178-kilometer stage that includes a hefty 2850 meters of elevation gain. The bulk of this is in the final phase of the stage, while the opening phase consistently climbs slightly. False flat, as it's beautifully called in cycling jargon.

We start at 86 meters above sea level, but despite the absence of a categorized climb, after about eighty kilometers of racing, we are already above 800 meters. This means it climbs very gradually, which is not necessarily to the advantage of the good climbing attackers. They prefer some hills where they can make the difference.

Anyway, it will be a tough battle to get into the day's breakaway group. Green jersey holder Biniam Girmay might even get involved here, so he can pick up the intermediate sprint points in Veynes after 115 kilometers and then drop back. Via Gap, the riders then head into the mid-mountains for the last forty kilometers, where sprinters will be out of the picture.

We start this fun final phase with the Col Bayard, a climb of 6.8 kilometers at 7.3 percent. Particularly the second kilometer of this mountain is tough, which is also true for the obstacle that follows shortly after: the Col du Noyer, at 7.5 kilometers with an 8.1 percent gradient, a first-category hill.

The real killer lies just before the summit, with a kilometer at more than ten percent. Moreover, at the top of this col, there are only eleven kilometers to the finish, seven of which are downhill. It should be noted that in the final kilometers to the ski station of Superdevoluy, it climbs again, at an average of 5.9 percent. So, hold on!

This will be the first finish on this climb in the Tour de France, but in the Critérium du Dauphiné, we have already finished here twice. Steve Cummings won in 2016, Samuel Sanchez in 2013.

Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024 | If one goes, the other must and will have to follow

Climbs
145.7 km: COL BAYARD (6.8 km at 7.3%)
166.3 km: COL DU NOYER (7.5 km at 8.1%)
177.8 km: SUPERDEVOLUY (3.8 km at 5.9%)

Times
Start: 12:45 PM
Finish: around 5:11 P

Weather stage 17 Tour de France 2024

The riders head in a northeast direction, but in the finale, they move from Gap to Superdévoluy first north and then in the final phase to the west. This means that a long solo breakaway is unlikely, as the wind is quite strong from the north and thus blowing against them in the pre-finale. With warm temperatures, the difference will likely be made in the last twenty kilometers.

Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024

We are in the middle of the third week and that usually means that the standings in a grand tour are more than clear. This is also the case in this Tour de France, where yellow jersey Tadej Pogacar of UAE-Team Emirates has so far dominated. The Slovenian also finds this Wednesday's stage to perfectly suit him, but it seems that he will (for once) really give the breakaway riders a chance. There are still quite a few major mountain stages coming in the next few days.

Additionally, we do not expect the other major classification teams to get involved. Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers) will at most send a man forward, but shortly behind, it could still be interesting.

Due to the significant gaps, riders like Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), and Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) are far enough behind that they might try their luck in an early breakaway. And if one goes in such a scenario, the others usually follow.

Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024 | If one goes, the other must and will have to follow

At various teams, they will fervently hope for this possible chance for the breakaway riders. EF Education-EasyPost did just about everything right with Richard Carapaz and Ben Healy, but there was always Pogacar or Vingegaard to spoil the dream. Therefore, the counter is still at zero, but they want to change that in the final week.

The Col du Noyer definitely offers opportunities for good climbers, but with the final climb to Superdevoluy, the punchers also have chances. That first category includes, the likes of Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Enric Mas (Movistar), Jai Hindley (RedBull-BORA-hansgrohe), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X), Carlos Verona (Lidl-Trek) and Laurens De Plus of INEOS Grenadies.

In the second group, you find the pure attacker Oier Lazkano from Movistar, Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Jasper Stuyven, Toms Skujins (Lidl-Trek), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), and definitely also Wout van Aert from Visma | Lease a Bike. Who knows, even Mathieu van der Poel might have plans in his Alpecin-Deceuninck rainbow jersey, but for most of these men, Thursday's stage is also a good opportunity.

Favorites stage 17 Tour de France 2024, according to In the Leader's Jersey

Top favorites: Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) and Oier Lazkano (Movistar)
Outsiders: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates), Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla) and Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich PostNL)
Long shots: Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ), Santiago Buitrago (Bahrain Victorious), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek), Enric Mas (Movistar), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X) and Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)

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