Favorites stage 19 Vuelta a España 2024 | Usual names must perform on new monster

We start in Logroño and finish 173 kilometers on the Alto de Monalvillo. First, however, we must tackle the Puerto de Pradilla—an officially 5.2-kilometer climb that averages 4.8 percent. That third-category climb is located about halfway through the stage.

Right after the start, the climb to Puerto de Pradilla begins. Officially, of course, this is not the case, but the road from the start runs constantly, slightly uphill until the official foot of that climb.

Once Puerto de Pradilla is submitted, the race's second half follows. That section begins with a vicious descent to the town of Santo Domingo de la Calzada, located on the Oja River. The route then goes back up false flat and down a bit of false flat before climbing—still false flat—to the foot of the final climb.

And that final climb is one to remember. In 2020, the race also finished on the climb flanks, with Primoz Roglic winning. The Alto de Moncalvillo rises over 8.6 kilometers, with an average of 8.9 percent. Halfway up the mountain, we see a steep kilometer of no less than 11.4 percent. Still, in the following kilometers, it is always double digits (or just slightly below) what the clock is ticking. In short, it is a race that promises spectacle!

Climbs
94.3 km: Puerto de Pradilla (5.2 km a 4.8%)
173.2 km: Alto de Moncalvillo (8.6 km a 8.9%)  

Timetable
Start: 1:05 pm
Finish: around 5:20 pm  

The weather, especially by Spanish standards, has been a bit off for several days in the Basque Country, and this will also be the case on Friday. The temperature will be around eighteen to nineteen degrees Celsius, with a medium chance of rain during the afternoon. So the chances of putting on jackets are considerable! There is also a light breeze blowing from the east.

Two races for the price of one, let's assume that for the sake of convenience. The strong climbers who can realistically compete for the day's victory are getting smaller by the day. In grand tours, we often see the same names back in the third week. So let's look at them, with, of course, Equipo Kern Pharma, which deserves first place here. Will Pablo Castrillo manage to win another stage? We can't deny it, especially after teammate Urko Berrade did it on day 18.

Realistically (on paper, anyway), we are pushing others forward. Max Poole (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL) has been in the race almost every day these last few days, and after three podium finishes and two more results in the top ten, the Brit will be hoping for a stage win. Then he must deal with the regular contenders, starting with UAE-Team Emirates. Marc Soler will also set his sights on mountain points, but there will always be Jay Vine, Isaac Del Toro, and maybe even Adam Yates, who is already distant.

Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe usually puts everything on the GC, although Aleksandr Vlasov has been given room to try something several times. Ion Izagirre seems to continue to find his best legs in Cofidis, Basque country. Eddie Dunbar has already won a stage at Jayco-AlUla, but Mauro Schmid has been especially impressed the last few days with his tireless attacking skills. In that category, Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Harold Tejada (Astana), Steven Kruijswijk (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal-Quick Step) will also want another go. Cattaneo, in particular, will be energized after bizarrely having to wait for his leader, Mikel Landa, in the winning breakaway on Thursday.

As such, Landa winning the stage on Friday seems unlikely. The other gentlemen in the top ten could, of course. Classification leader Ben O'Connor will stick with survival. Still, Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Enric Mas (Movistar), and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) are ready to sweep the Australian off the podium. Shortly behind are always Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS), and Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike). Do they dare to go all-in for stage wins? Or will they defend their top ten?

Top favorites: Max Poole (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Marc Soler (UAE-Team Emirates) 
Outsiders: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Enric Mas (Movistar), Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Ion Izagirre (Cofidis), 
Long shots: Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS) and Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Jay Vine, Isaac Del Toro (UAE-Team Emirates), Aleksandr Vlasov (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe), Mauro Schmid (Jayco-AlUla), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Harold Tejada (Astana), Steven Kruijswijk (Visma | Lease a Bike), and Mattia Cattaneo (Soudal-Quick Step)

Bram van der Ploeg (Twitter: @BvdPloegg | email: [email protected])