Favorites stage 2 Tour de France 2024 | San Luca, a name the peloton will remember!

While stage one featured seven climbs, stage two presents six climbs over the course of 200 kilometers from Cesenatico to Bologna. The start is not far from Saturday’s finish in Rimini, so most riders will have spent the night in a hotel on the Adriatic coast.

From Cesenatico, we head north along the coast, with barely any elevation gain in the first 60 kilometers. However, the terrain changes at Brisighella after 70 kilometers of racing as we reach the Monticino climb, a two-kilometer ascent at 7.5%. By this point, we’ll have moved well inland, likely with a breakaway already established.

Next comes the Gallisterna climb, which cycling fans will remember from the 2021 World Championships won by Julian Alaphilippe on the Imola circuit, which we’ll also pass through again. This was also where Primoz Roglic famously didn’t help Wout van Aert during the final, as you might recall.

After Imola, the peloton faces a long stretch, including an intermediate sprint in Dozza. We then approach the final quarter of the stage, featuring the Botteghino di Zocca climb (1.9 km at 6.9%) and the Montecalvo climb (2.7 km at 7.7%). These aren’t very long or steep, but they’ll certainly take their toll in the opening weekend of the Tour.

Especially because, following the descent from Montecalvo, we reach the final circuit in and around Bologna, primarily shaped by the San Luca climb. The 1.9-kilometer ascent at 10.6%, with a slow start through a bend, has been a staple in the Giro dell'Emilia and even hosted the Giro d’Italia start in 2021. Now the Tour de France is here, but not with a finish at the top. The peloton will have to climb up San Luca twice, with the final summit being 13 kilometers from the finish, leaving time to make adjustments.

Primoz Roglic has won the Giro dell'Emilia three times, with Tadej Pogacar and Simon Yates on the podium last year. Other recent winners include Enric Mas (2022) and Aleksandr Vlasov (2020).

Climbs
74.0 km: CÔTE DE MONTICINO (2.0 km at 7.5%)
88.8 km: CÔTE DE GALLISTERNA (1.2 km at 12.8%)
138.5 km: CÔTE DE BOTTEGHINO DI ZOCCA (1.9 km at 6.9%)
150.7 km: CÔTE DE MONTECALVO (2.7 km at 7.7%)
167.8 km: CÔTE DE SAN LUCA (1.9 km at 10.6%)
186.1 km: CÔTE DE SAN LUCA (1.9 km at 10.6%)

Times
Start: 12:35 PM
Finish: around 5:19 PM

Sunday will likely bring beautiful weather in Italy. Temperatures in Bologna will exceed 30 degrees Celsius, similar to those at the start in Cesenatico. The wind will blow inland but likely won’t significantly impact the race.

The general classification contenders held back on Saturday, but what will Sunday's chaotic stage in and around Bologna bring? Tadej Pogacar hinted beforehand that this could be a stage for him, though, to be fair, his UAE teammates struggled on Saturday, especially Juan Ayuso, who seemed to have a tough day.

For many punchers, this is their prime opportunity for success. Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny), Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers) and Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost) already got close on Saturday as they were part of the chasing group, and they will get another chance on Sunday, likely suiting them even better. The finish is steeper and shorter.

Several faster riders performed well. For Mads Pedersen of Lidl-Trek, this stage might be too challenging, but riders like Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike) and Alex Aranburu (Movistar) won't want to let the climbers get away too easily.

For Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and three-time Emilia winner Primoz Roglic (BORA-hansgrohe), this new stage brings renewed opportunity. Should Pogacar make a move, they’ll need to be alert. This also applies to their secondary leaders like Matteo Jorgenson, Aleksandr Vlasov, Mikel Landa and other UAE riders, including Adam Yates, Joao Almeida and Ayuso.

Additionally, we expect some action from Enric Mas of Movistar, the 2022 Emilia winner. Simon Yates, who podiumed for Jayco AlUla, and Carlos Rodriguez are also well-suited for the San Luca climb. And what about the dsm-firmenich PostNL team, riding high on confidence? Oscar Onley, Romain Bardet and Frank van den Broek will aim to make their mark again, along with others like Derek Gee, Giulio Ciccone, Pello Bilbao and Saturday’s underperformer Santiago Buitrago.

And the early breakaway, does it stand a chance again? Possibly, but they’ll need to make bold moves. Look out for names like Toms Skujins (Lidl-Trek), Quentin Pacher (Groupama-FDJ) and possibly even Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), who won stage two in Brittany a few years ago.

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny)
Outsiders: Primoz Roglic (BORA-hansgrohe), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers) and Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost)
Long shots: Wout van Aert, Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Aleksandr Vlasov (BORA-hansgrohe), Carlos Rodriguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Enric Mas, Alex Aranburu (Movistar), Romain Bardet, Oscar Onley (dsm-firmenich PostNL) and Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla)