Favorites stage 3 Giro d'Italia 2024 | Sprinting, but above all, the art of positioning multiple times

The riders kick off day three in Novara, a city conveniently nestled between the major cities of Milan and Turin. From this starting point, they head south, sticking mostly to a western trajectory for the majority of the route. 166 kilometers later, the finish line awaits in Fossano.

From the start, the riders have relatively little to fear. The climb towards Lu (3.8 km at 3.8%) after fifty kilometers is actually the only form of elevation in the first hundred kilometers, making this, on paper, a perfect stage for riders from VF Group-Bardiani CSF-Faizané and Polti-Kometa to grab some attention through an early breakaway.

Moving on to the finale then, which begins just over twenty kilometers from the finish line with the intermediate sprint towards Cherasco. Here, the road inclines at 6.1 percent for 1.2 kilometers, followed by several ramps that ascend another hundred meters in twelve kilometers. From Salmour, ten kilometers from the finish, there's a sort of skateboard halfpipe feature on the profile.

What does that mean? A descent begins with about eight kilometers to go, followed by a kind of launch pad where riders must climb 1.6 kilometers at 5.3 percent. The top of this hill is precisely three kilometers from the finish, making it an ideal opportunity for the better climbing sprinters to gain an advantage over some of their rivals. The presence of three hairpin bends favors punchy riders.

The final three kilometers are relatively straightforward. From the top of the hill, it's a straight shot until 1.3 kilometers from the finish, where the last corner is located. This final straight is on a wide nine-meter-wide asphalt road, making it perfect for the sprinters and their lead-out.

Climb
58.1 km: Lu (3.8 km at 3.8%)

Times
Start: 1:25 PM
Finish: around 5:12 PM

Will the riders get wet? It's a possibility. Towards the end of the stage, there's a literal and figurative chance of precipitation, with temperatures around 18 degrees Celsius. The wind is blowing from the southeast at a force of 2 to 3 on the Beaufort scale, mainly affecting the riders from the side.

Positioning is always important in a sprint stage, but perhaps it's even more crucial in finales like these. Why? Because there are several critical points: first, the intermediate sprint in Cherasco, twenty kilometers out from the finish, then the point at Salmour, followed by the descent at eight kilometers from the finish, then the climb at 4.5 kilometers from the finish, and finally, of course, the final sprint.

It goes without saying that everything will depend on how the riders handle the uphill sections, but two men may have a slight advantage here thanks to their strong trains and abilities to tackle small climbs. Firstly, Jonathan Milan of Lidl-Trek, who in this stage can count on the support of Daan Hoole, Edward Theuns, Jasper Stuyven and Simone Consonni. The broad-shouldered Italian will have nothing but the stage win on his mind.

The same goes for Olav Kooij of Visma | Lease a Bike, who would normally get his very first chance in a grand tour here. However, Kooij did take a fall on Sunday, so it remains to be seen what influence that will have. The Dutchman also has a solid lead-out with Jan Tratnik, Edoardo Affini, Tim van Dijke and Christophe Laporte, although his team already lost Robert Gesink to a hand injury. The Dutchman was expected to play a crucial role in the first 150 kilometers.

Besides these two teams, there are also riders who can benefit from the small climbs in the last ten kilometers. Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty) and Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ) have a full team at their disposal and will likely have to rely on pure speed against other competitors, so it's up to them to shave off some of that top speed.

Then there's Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), based on his sprints this year, he is the fastest man in this Giro, and let's not forget dsm-firmenich PostNL's trump card, Fabio Jakobsen. In the press conferences before the Giro, these two names were often mentioned as sprinters who could give others a hard time. Of course, they hope it won't come to that. The same goes for Bahrain Victorious' Phil Bauhaus. If Merlier and/or Jakobsen do run into trouble, Luke Lamperti and Tobias Lund Andresen could step up.

This Giro can truly be seen as one for the fast men, as many have traveled to Italy. Among the outsiders, we think of riders like Danny van Poppel (BORA-hansgrohe), Ethan Vernon, Hugo Hofstetter (Israel-Premier Tech), Max Kanter (Astana Qazaqstan Team) and Juan Sebastian Molano (UAE-Team Emirates), although they all have to make do with a slightly more limited lead-out.

Based on their status, we can also expect something from Caleb Ewan (who performed very well in the intermediate sprints on behalf of Jayco AlUla) and Fernando Gaviria (Movistar), although they need to turn the tide this year. Additionally, riders like David Dekker (Arkéa - B&B Hotels), Stanislaw Aniolkowski (Cofidis), Enrico Zanoncello (VF Group-Bardiani), Giovanni Lonardi (Polti-Kometa) and Andrea Vendrame (Decathlon AG2R) will hope for a top ten finish, while wildcard Filippo Ganna might try his luck in a Jelle Nijdam-style attack.

Top favorites: Jonathan Milan (Lidl-Trek) and Caleb Ewan (Jayco AlUla)
Outsiders: Tim Merlier (Soudal Quick-Step), Olav Kooij (Visma | Lease a Bike), Kaden Groves (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Phil Bauhaus (Bahrain Victorious) and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Wanty)
Long shots: Fabio Jakobsen (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Danny van Poppel (BORA-hansgrohe), Filippo Ganna (INEOS Grenadiers), Ethan Vernon (Israel-Premier Tech), Laurence Pithie (Groupama-FDJ), Max Kanter (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Alberto Dainese (Tudor), Fernando Gaviria (Movistar) and Juan Sebastian Molano (UAE-Team Emirates)