Favorites stage 8 Vuelta a España 2024 | The entire peloton will come knocking on O'Connor's door tomorrow

The riders will start on Saturday in Úbeda, a location that cycling fans might already be familiar with. The new Spanish gravel race, Clasica Jaén, which was won this season by Oier Lazkano—who is also competing in the Vuelta—has already passed through here multiple times. The last time the Vuelta started a stage here was in 2011.

The beginning of the 159-kilometer stage in 2024 is not too challenging. The first hundred kilometers consist of rolling terrain, where we are likely to see a fierce battle to get into the breakaway of the day. The escape group could very well have a chance, though it will depend on the will of other teams in the peloton.

After one hundred kilometers, the riders will reach the first categorized climb of the day: the Puerto Mirador les Palomas, a 7.3-kilometer climb with an average gradient of 5.7 percent. From the summit, there's a descent to the finish town of Cazorla, where the riders will pass by the finish line with forty kilometers to go. The route continues to descend until 27 kilometers from the finish, where an intermediate sprint with bonus seconds awaits.

The road then begins to climb in steps, but before the foot of the final climb of the day, the peloton faces a tricky descent. Positioning here will be crucial, as the 4.8-kilometer Sierra de Cazorla finish begins immediately with a brutal one-kilometer section at an average gradient of 17.3 percent! The teams are well aware of this, so hopefully, everyone avoids crashes or bad luck.

After that very steep opening kilometer, the gradient eases to 3.4 percent, but in the final kilometers, it repeatedly climbs above ten percent. A typical Spanish "goat path," where the race has never finished before.

Climbs
105.1 km: Puerto Mirador les Palomas (7.3 km at 5.7%)
158.7 km: Sierra de Cazorla (4.8 km at 7.1%)

Times
Start: 1:30 PM locally / 7:30 AM EST
Finish: 5:20 PM locally / 11:20 AM EST

Saturday will again be warm in Spain, with temperatures hovering around 35 degrees Celsius. The wind will blow lightly from the southeast, providing a tailwind or cross-tailwind for most of the stage.

What is the most likely scenario for this eighth stage? We think we will see a battle among the general classification riders. Argument one: the stage is relatively easy to control for riders like Nico Denz, Patrick Gamper and Victor Campenaerts. Argument two: Primoz Roglic and Lennert Van Eetvelt will find this finish to their liking.

The leaders of Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe and Lotto-Dstny fought for the stage win on a similar climb during the fourth stage on Pico Villuercas. Van Eetvelt seemed poised to take the victory and believed so himself, but at the finish, the crafty Slovenian (Roglic) overtook him and got the stage win.

Only a few riders could stay with them on that finish. Enric Mas (Movistar) was the only one who remained on their wheel, while Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step), João Almeida (UAE-Team Emirates), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech) and Felix Gall (Decathlon AG2R) also finished in the same time. However, Riccitello has since been set back by a crash, and Gall, as a teammate of leader Ben O'Connor, will likely have different orders.

On Pico Villuercas, we saw established names like Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) struggle, but we've also seen how quickly things can change with O'Connor. Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) and George Bennett (Israel-Premier Tech) also performed well on day four.

Wall specialists like Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) and David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ) will also find a finish suited to their abilities here, while with the chaotic general classification, escapees might also have a shot. In that case, we name Harold Tejada (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Wanty) and William Junior Lecerf (Soudal Quick-Step) as possible candidates, as the climb may be too challenging for punchers like Jhonatan Narváez.

Top favorites: Primoz Roglic (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) and Lennert Van Eetvelt (Lotto-Dstny)
Outsiders: Enric Mas (Movistar), Mikel Landa (Soudal Quick-Step), Mattias Skjelmose (Lidl-Trek) and Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
Long shots: Joao Almeida (UAE-Team Emirates), Sepp Kuss (Visma | Lease a Bike), Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Matthew Riccitello (Israel-Premier Tech), Harold Tejada (Astana Qazaqstan Team), Lorenzo Rota (Intermarché-Wanty) and Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R)