Favorites stage 9 Tour de France 2023 | Legendary climb deserves a legendary winner, right?

35 years, so that's how long it has been since we arrived at the Puy de Dome. Back then, Danish rider Johnny Weltz managed to win the 19th stage of the Tour de France, no doubt unaware that it would take so long before the race returned to this iconic climb. The reason? The Puy de Dome is located in a nature reserve, and the Tour de France circus didn't quite fit in. Since March 2010, the volcano has been completely closed to cycling traffic, but an exception is being made for this year's Tour.

In the years when the race regularly reached the summit, riders like Joop Zoetemelk (twice), Lucien van Impe, Luis Ocana, Bernard Thévenet, Felice Gimondi, Federico Bahamontes, and Fausto Coppi emerged victorious on this mountain, highlighting the prestige of the Puy de Dome in the cycling world. Even Jacques Anquetil and Raymond Poulidor had a memorable battle there in 1964.

Now, let's focus on the stage that awaits us in 2023: it crosses the Auvergne region and features 3,600 meters of elevation gain over 180 kilometers. The majority of the climbs are concentrated in the second half of the stage, with the highlight being the Puy de Dome itself.

We start in Saint-Léonard-de-Noblat, heading relatively early towards the intermediate sprint of the day, located at the top of the Côte du Lac de Vassivière, a taxing climb of several kilometers. Later on, we encounter climbs such as Côte de Felletin (2.1 kilometers at 5.2%), Côte de Pontcharraud (1.8 kilometers at 4.6%), and Côte de Pontaumur (3.3 kilometers at 5.3%), but on these we will likely see more of a cat-and-mouse game between the breakaway and the peloton.

Ultimately, of course, everything revolves around the Puy de Dome, the volcano for which we will commence our ascent in Clermont-Ferrand. It stretches for 13.3 kilometers at an average gradient of 7.7 percent, but that doesn't tell the whole story. The first five kilometers gradually ascend, followed by a flatter section for a few kilometers. However, the last four kilometers are downright brutal.

Indeed, in the final part of the climb, the steep percentages on the narrow roads of the Puy de Dome don't drop below ten percent for more than four kilometers. Starting from the Parking du Panoramique des Domes, it becomes a grueling battle to survive until the top, where the best climbers of this Tour will undoubtedly emerge.

Times
Start: 1:30 p.m.
Finish: approximately 6:15 p.m.

The stage primarily heads west towards Clermont-Ferrand, where we then turn towards the east and head to the Puy de Dome. Coincidentally, it seems that the wind will be turning against the riders throughout the race, which isn't great news for attackers. With temperatures reaching 34 degrees Celsius in France, staying hydrated is crucial.

The return to the Puy de Dome deserves a legendary winner, doesn't it? This brings us to the two main protagonists of this Tour de France: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates). In the Pyrenees, these two rivals battled back and forth, but who will gain an advantage in the Auvergne? With the steep gradients of the Puy de Dome, anything is possible!

With Sepp Kuss, Wilco Kelderman (Jumbo-Visma) on one side, and Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates) on the other, these two top climbers can be well supported. However, sending satellite riders ahead - as Jumbo-Visma did in the Pyrenees - poses greater challenges in this context. The lack of valley terrain leading up to the final climb and the daunting steepness of the last kilometers limit the potential for assistance.

This potentially opens doors for climbers who want to make a move from the early breakaway, as the fear of time bonuses might outweigh the desire to capture them. Lidl-Trek has Giulio Ciccone and Mattias Skjelmose, both capable of such attempts, although their performance in Cauterets seemed a bit lackluster. However, in the Saturday stage, both riders redeemed themselves with impressive support for the eventual winner, Mads Pedersen, so they deserve a spot on this list.

If we, representing IDLProCycling.com, were to pick one name for this stage, it would be Michael Woods. The Canadian rider from Israel-Premier Tech had an impressive opening weekend in the Basque Country and seemed poised for a strong overall classification. However, with a focus on stage victories, he decided to drop back in the first mountain stages. As the king of steep gradients, this effort fits Woods like a glove. The same can be said for his teammate Dylan Teuns, although unfortunate circumstances led to his crash a few days ago.

Other riders who have enough distance to make an impact include Egan Bernal (INEOS Grenadiadiers, why not?), Tobias Halland Johannessen (Uno-X, third in Cauterets), Warren Barguil (Arkéa Samsic), Ruben Guerreiro (Movistar), David de la Cruz (Astana), and of course, the King of the Mountains, Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost). However, everything would need to fall into place for them.

Due to the significant gaps between the top two contenders and the rest of the field, the battle for the top ten positions is already shaping up to be intriguing. Riders like Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën), Thibaut Pinot (Groupama-FDJ), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), and Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) could make a move and gain an advantage through a well-timed breakaway. However, will they be granted the freedom to escape the clutches of riders from fourth to tenth place? We doubt it!

Considering the riders mentioned above, it's actually scandalous not to consider them as top favorites for a stage like this. But in which scenario could guys like Tom Pidcock, Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS), David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Simon Yates (Jayco-AlUla), local hero Romain Bardet (DSM-Firmenich) and Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe) outperform Pogacar and Vingegaard on the Puy de Dome? Although the latter already proved many doubters wrong...

Top favorites: Michael Woods (Israel-Premier Tech) and Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates)
Outsiders: Jonas Vingegaard (Jumbo-Visma), Jai Hindley (BORA-hansgrohe), Giulio Ciccone (Lidl-Trek) and Dylan Teuns (Israel-Premier Tech)
Longshots: Tom Pidcock, Carlos Rodríguez (both INEOS Grenadiers), Thibaut Pinot, David Gaudu (Groupama-FDJ), Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla), Adam Yates (UAE-Team Emirates), Tobias Halland Johanessen (Uno-X) and Felix Gall (AG2R Citroën)