Betting pool tips Vuelta a España 2024 | We know Roglic, Almeida and Van Aert, but who are the hidden gems?

Of course, you won’t find Joao Almeida, Primoz Roglic, Adam Yates, or Wout van Aert on this list, but there are still 172 other riders lining up for the start of the Vuelta. Who among them could be the dark horses, the ones to bring in those precious points? That’s the annual dilemma with dark horse picks, and this year is no different.

For our first pick, we wanted to choose a rider whose team leader might just win the Vuelta for the fourth time. Of course, we’re talking about Primoz Roglic, who, after his withdrawal from the Tour de France, is eager for redemption in Spain. Representing Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe, he’s their top contender, with climbers like Aleksandr Vlasov, Daniel Felipe Martinez, and Florian Lipowitz supporting him.

Roger Adria is also part of this strong lineup. The 26-year-old Spaniard—racing on home soil—is in his first year in the WorldTour, but he’s not someone to underestimate. Hailing from Barcelona, Adria can handle climbs well, has a strong punch, and is quick on the finish, as shown by his recent top finishes in the Vuelta a Burgos. He also competed in reduced-bunch sprints in the Tour de Suisse, Eschborn-Frankfurt, and the Tour of Oman, earning respectable places. The only question is whether he’ll have the freedom within Roglic’s team to sprint occasionally... If you’re playing in a betting pool where team points matter, this could be an added bonus—especially if Roglic wears the leader’s jersey!

Next up is a veteran of the sport, Jon Aberasturi. The 35-year-old Spaniard has spent most of his career as a Continental rider, though he was part of the WorldTour peloton with Trek-Segafredo in 2022 and 2023. This year, he returned to his old stomping grounds at Euskaltel-Euskadi.

Among pool enthusiasts, Aberasturi has a bit of a cult following: a rider who often competes in the Vuelta and consistently finishes in respectable positions. Since 2018, he has achieved a top-20 result in the Vuelta 18 times, often earning valuable points in fantasy leagues. He’s rarely an expensive pick, and at the time of writing, he’s in good form, having finished twice in the top seven at the Vuelta a Burgos.

Sprint opportunities may be limited, but we’re saticking with the fast men for now. Equipo Kern Pharma arrives to the Gran Salida in Lisbon with a team of opportunists, and one of those is Pau Miquel. The 23-year-old Spaniard might actually be more of a hill specialist than a pure sprinter, but that’s exactly what makes him valuable in this Vuelta.

Why? Because flat sprints (stages that resemble a pancake in profile) are scarce in the Vuelta, so having solid climbing ability is essential in most sprints. And Miquel is well-suited for this. This year, he finished an impressive seventh in the challenging Circuit Franco Belge and took fourth in a stage of the Tour of the Basque Country. Definitely one to watch!

He is not really unknown anymore, but with a rider like Max Poole (dsm-firmenich PostNL), you might just make a difference in your fantasy team. After what was essentially a spring full of setbacks (and injuries), the 21-year-old Brit made an immediate impact upon his return. He finished an impressive second in the overall classification at the Vuelta a Burgos, just behind Sepp Kuss.

Poole is being positioned by his team as a leader for the general classification. It’s still uncertain how he’ll handle a three-week race after his injury—though he does have some experience, having ridden the Vuelta last year—but his talent is undeniable. Plus, with Poole, you can also rake in points for the youth classification!

Sticking with the young talent, let's talk about Mathias Vacek, the Czech rising star from Lidl-Trek. Vacek is making his debut in a grand tour, and rightfully so, as he’s already proven himself this year as a true all-rounder (and as Thibau Nys’s right-hand man) with solid climbing skills.

Vacek also has a very strong time trial and can finish fast. In short, he’s a versatile rider who will likely have the freedom to sneak into breakaways from time to time. What more could you ask for?

In the Giro d’Italia, Pelayo Sanchez was undoubtedly one of the breakout (baroudeur) stars. The born attacker managed to snag a stage win from a breakaway and later finished second in another stage. As you can guess, the Southern European is a pure attacker.

If we are to believe Thomas De Gendt—who knows the ropes by now—there are about ten opportunities for breakaways in this Vuelta. Add to that the fact that Sanchez is racing on home soil, and you might want to consider adding him to your team right away! Since the Tour de Suisse and the Spanish Championship (both in June), the 24-year-old climber and puncher hasn’t raced, so his form is a bit of a mystery. But if he’s in good shape, he’s definitely one to note!

You might not be considered a true dark horse anymore if you manage to beat Tadej Pogacar in a sprint in the opening stages of the Giro d’Italia. Still, Jhonatan Narvaez is worth mentioning as a gem for your Vuelta fantasy team, especially since there will be plenty of hilly stages and opportunities for breakaways.

On the INEOS Grenadiers team, where Thymen Arensman and Carlos Rodriguez will be the leaders for the general classification, the South American will likely have some freedom to chase his own opportunities, just as he did so successfully in the Giro. And Narvaez is definitely up for the challenge, especially given his current form—he recently finished a strong fifth in the Clasica San Sebastian. He could also be a valuable addition to your team if you’re aiming for points in the points classification.

Riders who latch onto breakaways and then gradually climb up the rankings through early attacks often don't win popularity contests. Think of Louis Meintjes (Intermarché-Wanty) and Guillaume Martin (Cofidis), who have repeatedly made the top ten in grand tours this way. For this Vuelta a España, we’d like to nominate Cristian Rodríguez (Arkéa - B&B Hotels) for that 'award,' even though he didn’t use this strategy in the Tour.

In La Grande Boucle, aside from his strong performance in stage two, we might have expected a bit more from Rodríguez. However, in 'his' Spain, he’ll have another chance to prove himself. He can definitely latch onto breakaways, though that often results in finishes between 15th and 20th on the day. But Rodríguez, like the rest of his team, knows what he needs to do: score points, which for this excellent climber means going on the offensive in the mountains and securing a place in the GC. Last year, he finished 13th in the Vuelta, and this season, he’s already been competitive in tough races like the Tours of Oman, Catalonia, Romandie, and Tirreno-Adriatico. So, he’s certainly capable!

The penultimate rider in our ten-man list is a grand tour debutant. We’re talking about Arjen Livyns, the 29-year-old Belgian from Lotto-Dstny. In the team announcement, he was highlighted as the 'designated sprinter.' Labeling Livyns as a pure sprinter might be a bit of a stretch, but he’s definitely quick.

Livyns will have his chances in the few bunch sprints, but he’s also capable of handling some climbs. We should keep in mind that grand tour racing is new territory for the small Flemish rider, who recently finished in the top six twice in the Sibiu Tour. Earlier this year, he also took an impressive eighth place in the Muscat Classic, so we shouldn’t rule out top-twenty finishes in the Vuelta—whether from a sprint or a breakaway.

The final spot on our list goes to one of the youngest participants this year, William Junior Lecerf of Soudal Quick-Step, the team competing in the Vuelta under the name T-Rex Quick-Step. The 21-year-old Belgian was one of the early surprises of the year, finishing a remarkable second behind Simon Yates in the AlUla Tour. Shortly after, he had an impressive Tour of Rwanda, including a stage win and several top finishes.

Within T-Rex Quick-Step, Mikel Landa is the team leader for the general classification, but the rest of the team will also have opportunities for stage success. In the hilly stages, we can certainly expect a lot from the lightweight Lecerf, although it remains to be seen how he’ll handle the pressure of such a big race...