Carapaz and Yates back in action, Roglic uncertain, Mas unsettlingly consistent, and O'Connor on a high: how will the Vuelta be decided?

It’s been in the cards for a while, but it’s slowly becoming a reality. The Vuelta is set to be the most thrilling Grand Tour of 2024. After nine days of racing, fans have already seen it all: majestic solos, collapses, comebacks, major contenders dropping out of the classification, and uncertain favorites. Moreover, the Spanish heat adds to the challenge. What more will we witness as we head towards Madrid?

Let’s revisit the last week. We’ve seen riders like Adam Yates and Richard Carapaz falter and then make comebacks. Major names like Lennert Van Eetvelt and Mattias Skjelmose have emerged from nowhere. The top favorite, Primož Roglič, has proven to be vulnerable. And we still have that remarkable Australian in red. The Vuelta’s standings get completely reshuffled after every mountain stage, making this three-week race a memorable grind that will last until the final weekend.

Landa, Mas, and Rodríguez keep Spanish hopes alive starting Thursday

There will be four consecutive mountain stages, including the brutal Cuitu Negru. Although the heat will be slightly less intense, this quartet of stages will again reveal who the most consistent climber is—and who experiences the fewest bad moments. In this regard, we can currently note two Spaniards: Enric Mas and Mikel Landa. The man from Mallorca showed his teeth on Sunday towards Granada, although he was not rewarded with a stage win.

Thus, Mas is the only rider who hasn’t experienced any collapses yet, and the race leaders—O'Connor and even Roglič—dare to attack. Don’t count out Landa either. He’s also plotting a plan, as he told Marca, mentioning that he has come out of the Tour in good shape. "I would like to achieve a podium place and a stage win, but I’m not ruling anything out," said the Basque in the Spanish daily. The last Spaniard in the top ten, Carlos Rodríguez, is also unsettlingly consistent and is still a little over two minutes behind Roglič.

Kuss is lagging behind; can Roglič maintain his form and stay upright?

Primož Roglič started the Vuelta impressively, with the best time trial of all the general classification riders, a stage win in stage four, and fighting spirit in stage eight, when he attempted to attack O'Connor and won the stage in Cazorla. And this was despite stage nine being the first truly grueling stage. It was precisely there that Roglič couldn’t keep up with the attacks from Carapaz and Mas. "He’s not following. So he’s not good enough to gain time on O'Connor," thinks José De Cauwer on behalf of Sporza.

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A bad sign for the Slovenian? The Belgian analyst thinks so. 'In principle, he should be able to follow Mas when he goes on that steep section. Roglič needs to gain time on O'Connor, after all. But he hasn’t made any attempt to keep up.' The three-time winner himself has already indicated that he is experiencing back problems. Then there’s Sepp Kuss. He is now over eight minutes behind O'Connor. At an earlier stage, he seemed satisfied, but Visma | Lease a Bike will not be pleased with the deficit and will need to come up with a plan to get the American back on the podium.

A matter of daring? Sufferers on the Villuercas thriving in Granada

It’s interesting how the dynamics changed during the first week. Three riders suffered a blow from the mill in stage four: Adam Yates, Richard Carapaz, and Ben O'Connor. Yet these riders managed to regain confidence later with impressive solo attacks, win stages, and even secure strong positions in the general classification. This reflects the lack of control in the Spanish race, the absence of initiative, and perhaps also a lack of quality to take it.

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What do these men have in common? They decided to throw the proverbial spanner in the works and attack. From the second row, admittedly, to return to the top spots of this Vuelta. It will be a grueling task for all these riders to make a dent in O'Connor's lead in the coming weeks. He is by no means unbeatable, but his lead remains enormous over most of the top contenders. In short, this peculiar Vuelta could get even crazier. Those who follow their heart and dare to attack on their good day might be richly rewarded in this phase.