Favorites rankings Tour de France Femmes 2024 | Who will grab the yellow, green, polka dot and white jerseys?

After Annemiek van Vleuten's retirement, there were fears of a monotonous scene in the women’s stage races. Demi Vollering was very dominant in 2023, but fortunately, this season she faces enough competition to make for a real duel. The leader of SD Worx-Protime is, of course, the woman to beat, especially due to the grueling final weekend, with finishes atop the Grand Bornand and Alpe d'Huez. Plus, there's also a stage to Liège, which suits Vollering perfectly... So far, she's had a perfect score, with overall victories in the Vuelta, the Tour of the Basque Country, Burgos and the Tour of Switzerland.

Lidl-Trek was the main rival on paper. They had big ambitions for the general classification with Elisa Longo Borghini. The Italian already won the Giro Donne this summer and seemed ready to aim for the top spot in the Tour. However, this ambition was dashed a few days before the start when Longo Borghini crashed during a training ride and had to withdraw from the Tour de France. Shirin van Anrooij and Gaia Realini will now have to deliver on Lidl-Trek's classification ambitions. Van Anrooij, in particular, has tailored her entire schedule to the Tour, with a high-altitude camp and her last race in June. She has a solid time trial, Liège suits her perfectly, and we are very curious to see what steps she has made in terms of climbing. Realini is the pure climber who will be targeting the final weekend.

And then we have Riejanne Markus, the main leader of Visma | Lease a Bike, who will move to Lidl-Trek after this season. She previously was not a major contender for the general classification, but with a specific preparation, she hopes to make a strong impression in France. Second in the Vuelta, second in Catalonia, and second in the Tour of Poland for women. With solid preparation and a lot of training, she has already grown into a time trial powerhouse over the past two years, so why couldn’t she surprise in the general classification as well?

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Kasia Niewiadoma is our next contender. The Polish rider (Canyon // SRAM) has been one of the best climbers for years now, and in 2024 she gained a lot of confidence by winning the Flèche Wallonne. That was a key moment because Niewiadoma had often competed for big prizes in the past, but she hadn't won since 2019. In the Tour of 2022 and 2023, she finished third, but she too will be pleased with the stage to Liège. Moreover, she has the phenomenal Neve Bradbury by her side. The 22-year-old Australian finished second in Switzerland and third in the Giro Donne, including a stage win on the Blockhaus. A great climbing talent, she could very well become the big sensation of this Tour.

The more established names in the general classification over the past years are, of course, also participating. Mavi Garcia (Liv AIUIa Jayco) is in excellent form, evidenced by her attacking spirit and sixth place at the Olympics. The 40-year-old Spaniard already won the Tour of Andalusia this year. Juliette Labous hopes to aim for a top ranking with Team dsm-firmenich PostNL. The 25-year-old Frenchwoman will move to FDJ-Suez after this season but will want to do so with a peak performance. This year, she consistently finished in the top five in almost all stage races, and in the last two years’ Tour, she finished fifth and fourth. Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig is still the leader of FDJ-Suez, alongside Evita Muzic. Both are excellent climbers, but on paper, they are still a bit behind Vollering. Ludwig finished seventh twice in the Tour, and Muzic was eighth in 2022, before having to abandon the race last year.

Outsiders for a good classification result include Olympic champion Kristen Faulkner of EF, who has never really proven herself as a general classification rider, and Silvia Persico of UAE, who is never to be underestimated!

The green jersey is usually reserved for the fastest woman in the Tour, but Lorena Wiebes had to drop out early in the last two years. The SD Worx-Protime sprint star is determined to win the points classification, with the opportunity to secure stage wins and two sets of 50 points right away on days one and two. After that, catching up with her in the last five days will be difficult, knowing that Wiebes can also handle a hill or two and, unlike last year, doesn’t have Lotte Kopecky in the team, who may also gather points.

Charlotte Kool is the main challenger in the sprints, as has been the case for a while. The Dutch rider (Team dsm-firmenich PostNL) occasionally finds a way to beat Wiebes, but her focus may be more on winning her first stage in the Tour than on the green jersey. Kool is also a pure sprinter, not someone who will thrive in a stage to Liège. This could play a crucial role in intermediate sprints. And so, in 2024, we once again look to Marianne Vos, the winner of the green jersey in 2022 and a free agent at Visma | Lease a Bike, posing a serious threat to Wiebes. Vos has got it all, no further explanation needed. And the fact that she’s in good shape was proven by her silver medal at the Olympics.

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Are there any other contenders? Well, we’re looking for women who can actually win a stage. Perhaps Daria Pikulik is one of them, as she is making a name for herself as a sprinter for Human Powered Health. The 27-year-old Polish lady competed with Wiebes and Kool in the Baloise Ladies Tour. Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek) undoubtedly has the talent to win and go for green, but how good is the Italian? She finished third once in the Giro before withdrawing early, and she finished 54th at the Olympics. Yet we are still marking up her name on the list. Because there are also significant points to be earned in the hill and mountain stages for the green jersey, we’re also considering classic types like Blanka Vas (SD Worx). However, the group of real contenders remains small.

Point count in the results

Stages 1, 2 and 5:
50 - 30 - 20 - 18 - 16 - 14 - 12 - 10- 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 points

Stages 4 and 6:
30 - 25- 22 - 19 - 17 - 15 - 13 - 11 - 9 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 points

Stages 7 and 8:
20 - 17 - 15 - 13 - 11 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 -5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 points

Stage 3 (time trial):
20 - 17- 15 - 13 - 11 - 10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 - 1 points

Intermediate sprints:
25 - 20 - 17 - 15 - 13 - 11- 10 - 9 - 8 - 7 - 6 - 5 - 4 - 3 - 2 points

It's a different story when it comes to the mountain classification. There are many great climbers on the list, but the last two editions have shown that it’s often the GC women who take this jersey. Demi Vollering is a strong contender for the polka dots if she performs dominantly on the Grand Bornand and Alpe d'Huez, while Kasia Niewiadoma won the mountain jersey last year.

In the first five days, points are available, but they pale in comparison to the first-category climbs in the final weekend. So, it will be a matter of picking up points where possible, with day four’s Liège-Bastogne-Liège stage offering a lot of points. Five points for second-category climbs (there are two that day) and three points for third-category climbs (of which there are three). Day six also brings with it a second-category climb.

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For the first-category climbs, ten points are awarded, and the two hors catégorie cols on the final day are worth twenty points each. Who can score from a breakaway or from the group of favorites on Saturday and Sunday? Perhaps Shirin van Anrooij, if she isn’t an immediate threat for the yellow jersey on behalf of Lidl-Trek... But Kristen Faulkner also has the perfect profile for such a classification — attacking and powering through, just like she did once in Strade Bianche.

Yara Kastelijn came close for Fenix-Deceuninck in 2023, and with Puck Pieterse, that same team now also has an interesting debutant for the attack. At Visma | Lease a Bike, we of course look towards Fem van Empel, and after her impressive victory on the Blockhaus in the Giro, Neve Bradbury has proven that she could be a dream mountain queen — if she isn’t still going all out in the race for the general classification. The same double potential applies to climbing specialists like Gaia Realini (Lidl-Trek), Mavi Garcia (Liv-Jayco) and Cecilie Uttrup Ludwig (FDJ-Suez).

Point count in the results

Hors catégorie (HC):
15 - 12 - 10 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 2 - 1 points

1st category:
10 - 8 - 6 - 4 - 2 - 1 points

2nd category:
5 - 3 - 2 - 1 points

3rd category:
3 - 2 - 1 points

4th category:
2 - 1 points

To compete in the youth classification of the Tour de France Femmes, you must have been born after January 1, 2002. This means you can be a maximum of 22 years old during the Tour, if you’ve already turned 22 after January 1, 2024. This ensures that there aren’t many contenders for the white jersey on the start list. Shirin van Anrooij, born on February 5, 2002, is eligible one last time and is the top favorite, knowing she’s aiming for the general classification.

However, there is strong competition from Canyon // SRAM's Neve Bradbury. Puck Pieterse (Fenix-Deceuninck) and Fem van Empel (Visma | Lease a Bike) also meet the age requirement, but they may not compete until the end. In the first days of the Tour, they will be interesting contenders for the white jersey for one or more days.